Mishkin’s Musings: Three Keys to Series

The Lightning begin their playoff series against the Canadiens on Sunday. Several keys will determine the series winner, and here are three (posed as questions) that should be included in the list.

Will the Lightning’s Team Defense Return to Pre-Olympic Form?

Team defense has been a strength for the Lightning this year. They finished the regular season ranked third in goals allowed per game and had the best numbers in the entire Eastern Conference.

But their defensive numbers got worse after the Olympic Break. Heading into the break, the Lightning allowed 2.51 goals per game. By the end of the season, that number had risen to 2.79. The Lightning endured a rough patch directly after the break when they went 3-7-0. During that ten-game span, their defensive play was subpar, and that stretch affected their season average. But even still, over their final 27 games of the regular season, they allowed three or more goals in 16 of them.

Their first-period goal differential was affected the most. Heading into the break, the Lightning were outscoring the opposition by 15 goals in the first period. After the break, they got outscored by 12 goals in the first period.

The Lightning will look to return to the stingy standard that was a staple of their game for most of the season. Structured play and terrific goaltending. Winning the possession battle so they spend less time having to defend without the puck. Limiting high-danger chances against.

This will be a critical key against a Montreal team that boasts great team speed and dangerous offensive weapons.

Which Team’s Best Players Will Be Their Best Players?

 On the first day of training camp this season, Nikita Kucherov criticized the Lightning’s 2-18 power-play performance in last year’s series loss to Florida.

Special teams play is often a key in a series, especially because it’s tied to the performance of each club’s top players (who are on the power play). There are certainly some talented offensive players in this series. Kucherov posted 130 points this year. Darren Raddysh set a Lightning franchise record for defensemen by scoring 22 goals. Jake Guentzel posted a career-high in points, and Brandon Hagel did so in goals.  On the Montreal side, Cole Caufield surpassed the 50-goal milestone, and Nick Suzuki eclipsed 100 points. Lane Hutson tied a franchise record for defensemen with 66 assists. 

For the Lightning, trying to contain the Suzuki line (with Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky) will be a big challenge. During the season,  Jon Cooper often matched the line of Yanni Gourde, Zemgus Girgensons, and Pontus Holmberg against the opposition’s top line. Holmberg is now injured, of course. Versus Detroit earlier this week, the Lightning used Nick Paul on that line in Holmberg’s absence to match against Dylan Larkin’s line. We’ll find out in Game One if Cooper wants to use Gourde’s line against Suzuki’s. How the Gourde line fares in that tough assignment could be one of the crucial components in the series.

Similarly, the Canadiens will look to limit Kucherov’s effectiveness—both on the power play and at even strength.

At the end of the series, let’s see which team got more production from its top players. It’s probably not a reach to assume that the same team will also have won the series.

Can the Lightning Turn Around Their Fortunes at Home (and in OT, if needed)?

This would be a question no matter the Lightning’s opponent. Dating back to Game Four of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final, the Lightning have gone 1-9 in their last 10 home playoff games. The poor record at home has definitely factored into their first-round exits in each of the past three seasons. Interestingly, before this current skid, their home playoff record in the prior 15 games was 14-1. 

Along the same lines, the Lightning have struggled in playoff overtime games, going 1-11 in the past 12. This dates back to Game Five of the 2020 Stanley Cup Final, when Corey Perry (then with Dallas) scored in double overtime. The 1-11 OT record predates the home struggles, but there’s also been some overlap—four of the first five home losses in the 1-9 stretch came in OT. 

Just like the home record’s cyclical swing, the Lightning actually went 12-2 in 14 playoff overtime games before the Perry goal reversed the trend. 

Hopefully, it’s time for the pendulum to swing back in the other direction. It’s very difficult to win in the playoffs without taking care of business at home and enjoying some overtime success.