Mishkin's Musings: Three questions heading into the qualifiers & playoffs

1. Will the Lightning switch up their lineup for the three round robin games?
This has been a question we've frequently discussed during our daily Power Lunch show (airing 12 PM - 1 PM on Lightning Power Play, our 24/7 station on the iHeart Radio App). If the Lightning have an idea of what their lineup will be for their first playoff game, do they use that same lineup for all three round robin games? Or do they rotate several players in and out of the lineup during the three round robin games, so that more players get some game action before the playoffs begin?

There are compelling arguments to be made for both scenarios. With one lineup, the Lightning would give their forward line combinations and defense pairings the maximum amount of time to get into a rhythm. Their round robin schedule is not a condensed one. They play their three games over a six-day span - August 3rd, 5th, and 8th. Their first playoff series won't start until the 11th at the earliest. So "resting" a regular for even one game means that player would be missing game action for several days.

Then there's the case for using different lineups. Over the course of the playoffs, the Lightning will likely need to use more than just the 18 skaters that will dress for Game One. When the season paused on March 12, the Lightning had 25 players on the roster, including the two goalies. So they are going to have several regulars that contributed to the team during the season that won't dress for Game One of the playoffs. Any player coming into the lineup during the postseason will have had regular practice time with the team. He will have played in the Phase Three scrimmages and maybe gotten into the July 29th exhibition game against Florida (teams are permitted to dress one extra forward and one extra defenseman for exhibition games). But if he hasn't played in any of the round robin contests, he will not have participated in a "real" game since at least March.

And what about the goalies? Will Andrei Vasilevskiy play every minute of the three round robin games? Or will Curtis McElhinney see some time too?

2. How important are the round robin games?
The top four teams will be reseeded following the conclusion of the round robin. In case of a tie, regular season point percentage will be used as a tie-breaker. The Lightning would win a tie-breaker with Washington and Philadelphia. They would lose one with Boston. The four winners of the play-in series will also be reseeded. So the highest seed will face the lowest remaining seed, etc. The teams will also be reseeded after the first round. So doing well in the round robin and earning the top seed would ensure that, however long it stays alive, the club always will face the lowest remaining seed. It would also give that team "home-ice" through the Conference Finals, providing the last line change in four out of a potential seven games.

Are the seeding and last change benefits indispensable? Of course not. Plenty of lower-seeded teams have enjoyed playoff success in past seasons. But given the choice, wouldn't most teams rather have those benefits than not?

The Lightning haven't specifically talked about wanting to secure the highest seed. They have spoken about the necessity of trying to play the round robin games with a playoff-like intensity, a level they will need to bring when their Round One series does begin.

3. Will games be high-scoring?
Typically, at the start of a regular season, offenses and power play units have an advantage over defenses and penalty killers. Games tend to be high-scoring. As the season progresses, teams tighten up defensively and the scoring totals come down.

Will we see similar "early" success from offenses and power plays in these playoffs? What's similar about this situation to a start of a standard regular season is how teams are coming off a layoff, going into a training camp, and then playing games. Strong defensive teams are in synch and structurally sound. A long break can adversely affect that structure.

What's different, of course, is that teams are going right into the Stanley Cup Qualifiers and Playoffs. In postseason play, clubs are committed to playing good defense, both five-on-five and on PK. Also, at the start of a new season, teams may be integrating new players into their lineup and their special teams units. That's not the case now - teams are bringing back the same players that they had before the pause.

Still, snapping back to late-season form won't be automatic. Playing with structure will be paramount for the 24 teams involved. The ones that can settle into their defensive game the quickest will help themselves greatly, at even-strength and on the penalty kill.