Just as vital and bottom-line math as the night unfolds with the first of two lottery drawings: Seattle has an 11.5 percent chance of picking first in the July 7 NHL Draft's first round and the same 11.5 percent chance to pick second that night. The odds of the Kraken picking third overall are 7.4 percent. That means there is roughly a 30 percent chance SEA picks in its regular-season order or better.
Picking No. 4 overall represents the Kraken's highest odds, 40.7 percent, while the chance of picking No. 5 is 28.8 percent.
One more must-know item: Though there are playoffs and international competitions involving top draft-eligible players over the next eight weeks, most respected draft evaluators contend this year's draft has five players commonly agreed as cream of the crop. Theoretically, the next couple dozen players are comparable enough to go as high as sixth overall or lower-first round.
Tuesday's event (3:30 p.m., ESPN and ESPN+) includes the 16 teams that did not make the Stanley Cup Playoffs and will determine which two NHL clubs pick No. 1 and No. 2 overall. Once the No. 1 and No. 2 slots are determined by lottery drawings, the remaining 14 teams will be slotted in reverse order of their point totals in the 2021-22 standings.
Kraken supporters certainly recall Seattle moving up to No. 2 last year, with NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly revealing the team's card. The franchise subsequently picked University of Michigan star Matty Beniers, who joined the Kraken for the last 10 games of the inaugural season to much fanfare. Beniers notched three goals and six assists, registering points in nine games and impressing teammates, coaches and opposing players alike.
The 2022 draft drama will begin with a drawing for the No. 1 pick Tuesday. Each of the 16 non-playoff teams have odds for winning, with Montreal owning the best odds for snaring the No. 1 overall pick at 18.5 percent based on its 32nd place finish.
As it turns out, the Original Six Canadiens franchise will host the 2022 Draft July 7 and 8 at Bell Centre in Montreal. Arizona (13.5 percent) and the Kraken (11.5 percent) have the next-best odds with Philadelphia (9.5) and New Jersey (8.5) rounding out the five with best chances.
The next six teams, Chicago (7.5 percent), Ottawa (6.5), Detroit (6.0), Buffalo (5.0), Anaheim (3.5) and San Jose (3.0), all have an opportunity to win big and select at No. 1 overall. In a new rule starting this year aimed at helping competitive balance, teams in the 12th through 16th position for the lottery can only move up 10 spaces or no higher than No. 2 for the 12th-spot Columbus Blue Jackets.
Along with that change, the NHL also established no team can drop lower than two places in the draft order. It used to be a franchise could drop three places. To wit, Montreal will pick no lower than third, Arizona no lower than fourth and Seattle no lower than fifth overall.
For Columbus (2.5 percent), New York Islanders (2.0), Winnipeg (1.5), Vancouver (0.5) and Vegas (0.5), the odds represent their chances to move up 10 places in the draft order. For the Kraken's Pacific Division rivals, that means Vancouver could move to No. 5 overall and Vegas could rise to No. 6 overall.
The first drawing will determine who picks No. 1 if one of the first 11 teams are called. Or it will determine how high one of the 12th through 16th teams get to move up. In any case, the odds are recalculated to adjust for 15 teams participating in the second NHL Draft Lottery drawing. Similarly, the Kraken's odds of picking at slots 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 will recalculate after the first drawing. It figures to be an exciting night for Kraken fans.
For draftniks, beyond the Kraken outcome, there are other storylines to follow Tuesday. Columbus holds the No. 12 position as aforementioned but also acquired a first-round draft choice from Chicago (sixth-best odds) in a trade involving defenseman Seth Jones last summer. Columbus will get the Blackhawks pick this year unless Chicago ends up with the first or second pick. In that scenario, Chicago keeps the pick and CBJ gets the CHI first-rounder next summer in the 2023 NHL Draft.
Buffalo, which won the 2021 Draft Lottery, could end up with two picks in the top 16 this July. The Sabres received Vegas' 2022 first-round pick in a trade involving forward Jack Eichel. But the pick is conditional: If Vegas does manage to move up 10 spots with slim odds in the two drawings, then Vegas gets to keep the pick and will send its 2023 first-round selection slot to Buffalo.
