Is There an NHL Draft in Here?

Before NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman explained the details of the 2020 NHL Draft Lottery during his "Return to Play Plan" press conference Tuesday, he noted the process is "complicated." Let's break it down together. No calculator required, but like any math problem worth solving, you need to stick with us.
The first complexity is the NHL Draft Lottery typically involves the 15 teams not making the Stanley Cup Playoffs participating in a draw that each team some probability of winning the chance to draft first, second or third at the top of the Draft. In this year's Draft, it means a chance to select consensus No. 1 pick Alex Lafreniere, who led Team Canada to the World Juniors Championship over this past winter.

Problem is, only seven teams are sitting out of the action when the NHL returns to the ice with a 24-team tournament. Those teams will get pre-determined odds of the ping-pong ball popping out in their favor to draft Lafreniere based on their place (measured by standings points) in the official NHL standings as of March 11 when the shortened regular season ended. Detroit, which finished 31st of 31 teams, has the highest odds at 18.5 percent.
Ottawa is next lowest at 13.5 percent while San Jose as the No. 29 team would be allotted a 11.5 percent-except the Sharks traded their pick to Ottawa in a trade for defenseman Erik Karlsson, which now means Ottawa has a 24.5 percent to win the Lafreniere lottery. The final four of the seven teams not returning this season are Los Angeles (9.5 percent chance), Anaheim (8.5 percent), New Jersey (7.5 percent) and Buffalo (6.5 percent).

So far, so good. Now the complications: Sixteen teams are playing a "Qualifying Round" of this year's unique NHL postseason. The eight losers of those best-of-five-games series will end up in the Draft Lottery, getting assigned odds based on how low or high they finished in the regular season standings. For instance, if No. 12 seed Montreal loses to favored Pittsburgh, the Canadiens would get the 8th highest odds at 6 percent. If Montreal upsets the Penguins, the Pittsburgh will be the last team in the lottery with a one percent chance.
But the NHL plans to conduct its first-phase lottery drawing June 26, meaning only seven identifiable teams will be in the running, along with eight "placeholder" teams to represent teams that don't make it out of the Qualifying Round. The way the lottery works is the first draw is for the No. 1 spot. The odds for the remaining teams and placeholders are then adjusted proportionally for the second drawing to determine the No. 2 pick. It follows a similar drill to draw the team or placeholder awarded the No. 3.
If all three drawings come up with one of the seven identifiable teams, then the 2020 Draft Lottery is effectively over. Those three teams would be sitting 1-2-3 and other rules kick in, such as no team can fall more than three spots from inverse top-of-the-order. For Detroit, that translates to no lower than No. 4 and for Ottawa it means no worse than back-to-back No. 5 and 6 picks in a draft considered to be deep in talented prospects. The eight teams losing in the Qualifying Round then are placed in reverse order of their regular-season finish.

On the other hand, if one of the placeholder teams wins any of the three lottery drawings, then a second-phase lottery will be conducted after the Qualifying Round ends and the conference quarterfinals begin (date to be determined). In this lottery, the eight teams eliminated during the Qualifying Round will each have a 12.5 percent chance to be awarded the relevant No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 pick.
The seven teams not in the NHL postseason will have already been provided the opportunity and proper odds at landing the top three picks. But the same rules of falling no lower than three places will hold. After any placeholder drawings, then the remaining identifiable teams and the placeholder teams now identifiable will be slotted by inverse order of their regular-season marks. One goal for Bettman and the NHL leadership is no team can win the 2020 Stanley Cup and win the first overall pick.
Whew, done. Well, except for fan concerns that Lafreniere could land with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in Edmonton if the Oilers lose to Chicago in the Qualifying Round. Or same scenario the highly-touted forward ends up with Pittsburgh (seventh best in team points earned across the 31 teams) if Montreal finds a way past Sidney Crosby and company. The odds are slim that happens but much fatter that Ottawa could actually win the first and second picks. That's the kind of math any Senators fans is happy to calculate.