Mailbag: Wild-card races in East, West; telling stats for Rangers
NHL.com's Dan Rosen answers weekly questions
© Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
In your opinion will it be the Philadelphia Flyers, Washington Capitals, Detroit Red Wings or another team which locks up the last Eastern Conference playoff spot? -- @MrEd315
The Washington Capitals are in line to finish third in the Metropolitan Division, and I think they'll do it. They are one point back of the Philadelphia Flyers with two games in hand. Those games in hand will matter. The Capitals have fought their way back into the race, going 6-3-1 in their past 10 games. They seem to have a head of steam at a time when the Flyers look like one struggling to hang on. Morgan Frost's goal at 19:50 of the third period against the New York Islanders on Monday allowed them to salvage a point, but they haven't earned two in a game since March 23. They've lost five in a row (0-3-2) and are 2-5-3 in their past 10. With seven games left, the Flyers are running out of gas. It's impressive that they have lasted this long, especially with so many injuries and a lack of depth in goal, but their next four games are on the road, where they're 2-6-3 since Feb. 15. It doesn't matter than their next three opponents are teams outside the Stanley Cup Playoff bubble, the Buffalo Sabres, Columbus Blue Jackets and Montreal Canadiens. It's hard to see the Flyers finding a hot streak.
That opens the door for the Red Wings to take that second wild card in the Eastern Conference. I think they'll get it and leave the Flyers on the outside. Detroit's 4-2 win against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday was obviously big. It ended an 0-2-2 slide, salvaged a five-game road trip and gave them 82 points in 75 games (the Flyers have 83 in 76 games). Maybe it started the Red Wings back on the path to the playoffs. It's open for them with the Flyers slumping at the wrong time. Neither the Flyers nor Red Wings play again until Friday. Though the Flyers play four in a row on the road, the Red Wings have their next three at home, where they have won three straight and are 21-11-5 this season.
Do the Blues pass the Kings in the final three weeks? -- @JasonHackwort10
No.
The Kings have a three-point lead and one game in hand on the Blues with eight games remaining versus St. Louis' seven. They also have three more regulation wins, which is the first tiebreaker once each team has played 82 games. In addition, the Kings, who have lost three in a row, have a favorable schedule down the stretch with seven of their final eight games against teams not in the playoff race, two against the Anaheim Ducks and one each against the Seattle Kraken, San Jose Sharks, Calgary Flames, Minnesota Wild and Chicago Blackhawks. They're 10-3-1 against those teams. They also play at home against the Vancouver Canucks and are 2-0-1 against them this season. Six of their final eight games are at Crypto.com Arena, where they've won four in a row and are 9-2-1 since Feb. 10.
Not only do the Blues have to catch the Kings in one fewer game, but their schedule is also more challenging with four of their final seven on the road, including games at the Nashville Predators and Dallas Stars. They also have a home game against the Carolina Hurricanes. Good on St. Louis for making it a race and taking advantage of Los Angeles' three-game skid, but it's too much ground to make up and not enough time to do it.
Are the New York Rangers better than their stats? The Athletic gives them a 5 percent chance to win the Stanley Cup. Covers.com put them at sixth for the Stanley Cup at +1,000 odds. But they are 13-8-1 vs. other nine elite teams. So, if stats lie during the regular season, will they in the playoffs? Are stats off because negative play vs. poor teams in the regular season? -- @jsextonesq
The Rangers are not better than their stats. Their stats are telling as to why they're leading the Presidents' Trophy race with 104 points, 50 wins and a .693 points percentage through 75 games.
To be perfectly honest, I'm not sure what the odds mean at this point. We don't know matchups yet. If the Rangers play the Capitals, Red Wings or Flyers in the Eastern Conference First Round they'll be heavily favored. They're 2-0-0 against the Red Wings, 3-0-0 against the Flyers and 2-2-0 against the Capitals, with games left against Detroit and Philadelphia. It might be tighter if they play the Lightning because of impact star players like Andrei Vasilevskiy, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman, but the Rangers would be expected to win because of their depth. To that end, I'd be surprised if they didn't at least make it out of the first round and run into the Hurricanes in the second round. That's a too-soon-to-talk-about matchup.
But when we're talking stats and the Rangers' ranking around the League because of them, the breakdown seems obvious to me.
They're seventh in goals for per game (3.41) and seventh in goals against per game (2.77). They're fourth on the power play (25.7 percent) and the penalty kill (83.5 percent). They're sixth in face-off percentage (52.5 percent). They're second in comeback wins (24), tied for first with the Red Wings in third-period comeback wins (12). Their plus-20 goal differential in the second period is fourth in the NHL and plus-19 in the third is seventh. They're tied with the Vegas Golden Knights for seventh with a .906 save percentage. When a team is top 10 in that many statistical categories it's not at all a surprise that it consistently finds ways to win games like the Rangers have this season.
They're not better than their stats. They're as good as them.
As a fan of a team that isn't making the playoffs, I like to root for other teams who have never won the Cup. Of the three teams currently in a playoff spot (Florida, Nashville and Winnipeg), which one is most deserving of a championship? -- @baYsYckwrYteboY
It's impossible to say who deserves it more. The Florida Panthers have been to the Stanley Cup Final twice, losing both times. They have one win in the Stanley Cup Final, last year against the Vegas Golden Knights. They were swept in the 1996 Final by the Colorado Avalanche. The Predators have been to the Cup Final once, in 2017, when they lost to the Pittsburgh Penguins in six games. The Winnipeg Jets have never been to the Final, neither the 1.0 edition, an NHL team from 1979-96, or the 2.0 edition, which came from Atlanta, since 2011-12. So maybe you can say it's the Jets because the fans in Winnipeg deserve a chance to experience the Final in their city and building, and what a white out that would be. But fans in South Florida or Nashville deserve a championship too. Panthers fans have returned, understanding their team has a real chance to win this season after making the run last season. The fans in Nashville are among the best and most boisterous in the League. It's an impossible question to answer. You can, however, root for the Stanley Cup Final to be the Panthers against the Jets or Predators, and you'll get your wish that one deserving fan base will get to experience the elation of its team winning the Stanley Cup.
Who, in your opinion, will win the Art Ross, Norris and Hart Trophies? -- @vikings1968
Art Ross Trophy (scoring leader): Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
McDavid has 126 points, one fewer than Nathan MacKinnon and Nikita Kucherov, but has more time to become the scoring champion with nine games to play. Kucherov has eight remaining and MacKinnon has seven. McDavid will get it on April 18, the last day of the regular season, when the Oilers are in Colorado to face MacKinnon and the Avalanche.
Norris Trophy (best defenseman): Quinn Hughes, Vancouver Canucks
Hughes leads all defenseman with 86 points (16 goals, 70 assists). He averages 24:44 of ice time per game. He's plus-39. He's been the best defensemen in the NHL all season. Nashville's Roman Josi, Colorado's Cale Makar and the Rangers' Adam Fox have made pushes, closed the gap on Hughes, but it's still the Canucks' captain's trophy to lose. He'll win it.
Hart Trophy (most valuable player to his team): Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche
MacKinnon is the lifeblood of the Avalanche. It doesn't matter if he wins the scoring race or loses it to McDavid or Kucherov. The Avalanche go as he goes. He pushes their pace. He drives their 200-foot game. Yes, he has some elite players around him, namely Mikko Rantanen and Makar, but it's MacKinnon who plays the 100-mph game at an elite level and that is what allows the Avalanche to be an elite team.
