Friday Forecheck: November 17, 2023

What a difference a few days can make in the world of NHL hockey!  The Flyers' recent four-game road trip started out on a sour note as the Flyers lost, 2-1, to a San Jose Sharks team that entered the night with a record of 0-10-1 and a staggering minus-43 goal differential. The loss in San Jose was the Flyers' seven in a nine-game span (2-6-1), dropping the team's record to 5-7-1 on the season.

Since that time, the Flyers collected wins in each of their last three games: 6-3 in Anaheim, 4-2 in Los Angeles against a Kings club that had shut out Philly by a 5-0 count at Wells Fargo Center, and, finally, a 3-1 victory over a Carolina Hurricanes team that came into the game undefeated on home ice. 

The games in LA and Carolina were ones where the Flyers had to bend, but never broke. Philly never trailed in either game despite being at a puck possession disadvantage. The Flyers got clutch offense, excellent goaltending and blocked a lot of shots. This was especially true in Raleigh, where Carter Hart made 32 saves, the team in front of him blocked 30 additional Hurricanes shot attempts and the Flyers received goals from three different lines. 

Suddenly, entering this weekend, the Flyers are only one point behind the Washington Capitals and Carolina for what would be automatic playoff spots in the Metropolitan Division. This shows three things: 1) This Flyers team is deeper (especially up front) than the squads of the previous two seasons, 2) in small sample sizes of games, team and individual analytics may not tell the main story of how a club is playing in its recent outings, and 3) it's still relatively early in the 2023-24 season and the standings are still volatile. It's a lot like Major Leage Baseball in May; there's still the bulk of the season remaining but early patters of what's working and what needs improvement have started to emerge. Ultimately, though, teams are still proving themselves.

Over the weekend, the Flyers (8-7-1) will rematch with the defending Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights (12-3-1) in a 1 p.m. matinee at Wells Fargo Center. On Sunday, the Columbus Blue Jackets (4-8-4) will come to town for a 5:30 p.m. game.

Tippett on a heater

Owen Tippett was a frustrated hockey player heading into last Friday's game in Anaheim. Pucks weren't going in the net for him. Head coach John Tortorella was exhorting him to make more consistent use of his size and strength and to be more physically aggressive.

In the third period of the Anaheim game, the tide turned for Tippett in a major way. At the 13:07 mark of the third period, Tippett claimed a loose puck near the left board, moved around Frank Vatrano and toward the net. A wrister later shot low to the glove side, and the Flyers had a 5-2 lead one shift after the Ducks had sliced a Philly advantage to two goals.

The goal came on a spectacular individual effort by Tippett. Suddenly, all the pressure was lifted. He added a late empty net goal to his earlier tally to forge a 6-3 final score.

In Los Angeles, Tippett struck again. Scoring his third goal in two nights, he notched a breakaway goal to give the Flyers a 1-0 lead at 14:59 of the first period. Sean Walker blocked a shot and then a lead pass to Tippett in stride. As he neared the net, Tippett backhanded the puck into the cage.

Tippett provided the all-important first goal of the game again in Carolina: The Flyers are 8-1-0 this season when scoring first, but winless (0-6-1) when trailing first. The leaguewide average so far this season is a 37.5 winning percentage after yielding the first goal of the game.

Tippett took a quick one-touch backhanded pass from Morgan Frost and immediately fired off a shot from just above the right circle that beat goalie Pyotr Kochetkov. The secondary assist went to Louie Belpedio, who gained the offensive zone, passed to Frost, and continued toward the net.

Suddenly, over the span of three games, Tippett has gone from two goals on the season to six and the forward is skating with sky-high self-confidence. It's the ebbs and flows of a hockey season, but it would be huge for the Flyers if Tippett can stay hot as the scene shifts back to Wells Fargo Center.

Side: note: Tippett's goal in Carolina was the 100th point of his still-young NHL career (51 goals, 49 assists) in his 208th career game. It may seem like a modest total for a player of his talent but keep in mind that it took time for the former Florida Panther to find his footing at the NHL level.

Foerster Not Lacking for Scoring Chances

Sooner or later -- hopefully sooner, both for his sake as for the Flyers -- rookie winger Tyson Foerster will have an offensive breakthrough. It just happened for Tippett. It happened for Frost, who created eight Grade A scoring chances in a three-game span the previous week, but entered the Anaheim game with zero points on the season.  Frost now has two goals and two assists in his last three games.

As long as Foerster doesn't get down on himself and the process stays strong, it's inevitable that he'll go on his first point-producing run of the season. It's not always about season numbers (0 goals, 15 assists in 15 games played). Especially with a young player like Foerster, it's about getting to the scoring areas, finally having one puck go in for him by any means, and then just allowing himself to play. 

In most of the last 10 games, Foerster has been getting himself to the scoring areas with increased frequency. He hasn't been burying his chances -- too many are still being blocked or missing the net. However, step one of working out of an offensive drought involves getting back to being in the middle of more scoring chances. The payoff may still take time and may be started by a puck-luck type of goal going in the net. Then the player can relax and just play once the first one finally goes in.
 
Some supporting numbers: Entering the Carolina game, Foerster led all Flyers players with 25 individual scoring chances at 5-on-5 over his previous nine outings. That included 15 high-danger chances. Extend the numbers to his shifts on power play, and you would find an additional three individual scoring chances, with two of them from high-danger areas.

Given his pedigree as a prospect with a natural finishing touch, it shouldn’t be long for Foerster to break through.

On the Farm: What's next for the Phantoms

The Lehigh Valley Phantoms (5-6-2) will embark over the weekend on a Canadian road trip to play three straight North Division opponents. 

On Friday night, the Phantoms with play the Laval Rocket (5-7-1); the AHL team with the most goals allowed (57) so far this season but also leads the league in goals scored (50).  On Saturday, the Phantoms pay a visit to the Belleville Senators (6-5-1), whose main issue has been a bottom-third offense (33 GF vs. 39 GA). 

The trip wraps up on Tuesday against the Toronto Marlies (7-3-2 overall, 3-1-1 on home ice), who are tied for the North Division lead with 16 points to date. All three games are 7:00 p.m. ET starts.