The NHL will hold its 2025 NHL Draft Lottery on Monday evening. The lottery will air live on ESPN, Sportsnet, and TVA Sports at 7PM. There are two drawings made during the lottery: one for the first overall pick of the draft and another for the second overall pick.
No team can move up more than 10 spots in the final draft order, regardless of whether they come up in the first or second drawings. For example, if the Calgary Flames (16th place in the regular season) are selected in the lottery drawings, the Flames still cannot draft higher than sixth overall.
The Flyers default pick heading into the lottery is the fourth overall selection. Statistically, however, the Flyers have roughly a two-thirds chance of ending up with the fifth overall (44.6 percent probability) or sixth (20.8 percent) pick. There is a 15.4 percent probability that the Flyers wind up drafting fourth overall.
Why were the odds weighted in this way by the NHL? It was done in order to discourage lottery-bound teams from "tanking" during the regular season. Even the San Jose Sharks, who finished in 32nd place in the league this year, have a 74.5 percent chance of drafting either second (18.8 percent probability) or third (55.7 percent) in the post-lottery selection order in the Entry Draft.
On the flip side, the Flyers have a 19 percent chance of landing the first (9.5 percent) or second (also 9.5 percent) overall pick.
There is one other possibility, but the odds of it happening are very slim. There's a 0.3 percent chance that the Flyers end up with the third overall pick of this year's Draft.
How it could happen: If the Detroit Red Wings (default 12th overall pick) win Drawing 1 AND the Flyers win Drawing 2, the first overall pick of the 2025 Draft will go to San Jose by default. The Red Wings would get the second overall pick. The Flyers would get the third pick of the draft. With a 99.7 probability of the Draft Lottery NOT playing out this exact way, it's the unlikeliest draft day destination for the Flyers.
The Flyers have only held the first pick of the draft once in team history: center Mel Bridgman in 1975 with a selection acquired from the Washington Capitals. There was no lottery back then. Draft order was determined solely by the reverse order of the regular season standings.
In 2017, the Flyers went into the lottery holding the default selection. This was before the 10-spot-jump maximum was adopted. The Flyers landed the second overall pick of the draft, taking center Nolan Patrick.
