Fantasy mailbag: Buy-low defensemen to target

Every week this season, NHL.com will answer your fantasy mailbag questions. Whether you're in a year-long league or play DFS, we'll answer the most relevant questions based on Yahoo transaction trends, DraftKings value and any other developments (production, lineup, injuries) around the League. Send your questions to @NHLJensen.

@TomsTumshais: Do you think Andrej Sekera will take over the first power-play role for the Edmonton Oilers when he's back in the lineup? Thanks, Pete!; @MattKuiper: Are there some good buy-low offensive defensemen you feel will have an improved second half of the season?
Sekera (3 percent owned) has not played a game this season because of a knee injury, but has been practicing and could be nearing a return. The Oilers finished two points behind the Anaheim Ducks in the Pacific Division and won a round in the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season with Sekera (2:11 per game on power play) and Oscar Klefbom (2:31) splitting power-play duties. Edmonton is currently nine points out of the final postseason spot in the Western Conference. The Oilers defense pairs were mostly Sekera with Kris Russell and Klefbom with Adam Larsson (upper body; injured reserve). The Oilers desperately need defensive help, and Sekera could become fantasy-relevant immediately upon his return. Darnell Nurse (32 percent), who sees little power-play usage, has outperformed Klefbom in points and plus/minus and is close behind in shots on goal.
But Klefbom (54 percent owned; 373rd in Yahoo) remains one of the few buy-low defensemen on the fantasy market, especially considering Sekera's return could have a positive impact. There are not many defensemen who see heavy minutes and first power-play usage who have struggled offensively, so target one or more from the following list in a buy-low trade offer: Erik Karlsson (OTT; 371st in Yahoo), Duncan Keith (CHI; 282nd), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (ARI: 276th), Rasmus Ristolainen (BUF; 457th), Justin Faulk (CAR; 273rd), Klefbom and/or Cam Fowler (ANA; 480th). Each has a chance to turn his season around either because of exposure to high-end forwards, high shot volumes, a power-play bounce-back or his team getting healthy. Jacob Trouba, with Dustin Byfuglien (lower body) out week to week for the Winnipeg Jets, and Ryan Ellis (knee), who should return for the Nashville Predators in the coming weeks, are other buy-low defensemen with second-half upside.

@steveheals: Think Evander Kane gets traded? Should I move him in fantasy?
The Buffalo Sabres have fallen way short of preseason expectations and have the fewest points (22) in the Eastern Conference and second-fewest in the NHL, ahead of the Arizona Coyotes (19). Kane is on pace for the best season of his NHL career with 28 points (14 goals, 14 assists) in 32 games with eight power-play points and 134 shots on goal. His career-high PPP total was nine in 2011-12, a season where he scored NHL career highs in 57 points (30 goals, 27 assists) and had 287 SOG. I had high hopes for Kane in my preseason
bold predictions
, but still never thought he would be outperforming Jack Eichel by such a wide margin (Kane: 30th in Yahoo; Eichel: 127th).
With Kane in a contract year and the Sabres moving in the wrong direction, I believe Kane will be moved before the 2018 NHL Trade Deadline. From a fantasy standpoint, he's so valuable in multicategory leagues for a struggling team that I would hold on to him and see how effective he can be as a top-six forward for a contender. He is one PPP away from a career high despite Buffalo's man-advantage unit going from tops in the League last season (24.5 percent) to second-worst (13.1).
@JrIII820: Name a few players that are owned at a low percentage now, but should be owned moving forward.
The obvious names are Kevin Fiala (LW/RW, 26 percent owned) of the Nashville Predators, Kyle Connor (LW, 17 percent) of the Winnipeg Jets and Pierre-Luc Dubois (C/LW, 17 percent) of the Columbus Blue Jackets. Each has strong linemates and is seeing power-play time for contending teams. Digging even deeper, I would give serious consideration to Danton Heinen (C/LW/RW, 2 percent) of the Boston Bruins. He reaped the benefits of playing on the first power-play unit with Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak and Torey Krug with two power-play assists against the Washington Capitals on Thursday. A low-ownership goaltender to watch is Kari Lehtonen (16 percent) of the Dallas Stars, who will make his fourth start in Dallas' past five games against the New Jersey Devils on Friday.

@stone_advil: What are your updated predictions for Mitchell Marner and William Nylander? What is Tyler Johnson's value moving forward?
Johnson (C, 39 percent) is among the most-productive players in the NHL since moving from center to wing and rejoining the Tampa Bay Lightning's top six on Dec. 2. He ranks second in the League behind Artemi Panarin (12 points in 7 games) of the Blue Jackets with 11 points (four goals, seven assists) in six games. Considering Johnson's success and fresh position, first alongside Steven Stamkos and now with Brayden Point and Ondrej Palat, expect him to gain right wing eligibility in Yahoo leagues very soon. He's worth owning in nearly all fantasy leagues after this development.
Marner and Nylander are on pace to fall short of their preseason point projection by NHL.com (66 each). Nylander is on pace for 52 points if he plays 82 games, and Marner is on pace for 50. Each has had sporadic usage and has played depth-line minutes on numerous occasions in his second NHL season. That said, I do believe there is a learning curve under coach Mike Babcock and that Nylander and Marner will see greater usage over the rest of the season. Top center Auston Matthews has missed the past three games because of an upper-body injury, and we've already seen an uptick for Marner (18:47 against Minnesota Wild on Thursday) and Nylander (19:24, 18:38 over past two games). I would expect each to ultimately finish with at least 55 points.
@InsertN10861804: Is Aaron Dell on the way to steal Martin Jones' job?
Dell (33 percent owned) has arguably been the best backup in the NHL over the past two seasons; he has won four straight with a combined four goals allowed, and is now 17-9-2 with a 1.91 goals-against average, .934 save percentage and three shutouts in 32 career NHL games. Dell is worth owning in deep fantasy leagues because the San Jose Sharks have eight remaining back-to-back sets. He's ranked fourth among all goalies in Yahoo based on standard-category efficiency behind Andrei Vasilevskiy, Sergei Bobrovsky and Corey Crawford. The 28-year-old has added value in keeper leagues being in the final year of his contract with the Sharks. Barring another injury to Jones, I don't think Dell will steal the job outright this season. That said, Dell has proven he deserves a starting job next season.