Mishkin's Musings: One month to go

Standings Position: I'll address the state of the Lightning's game in the next topic. But first, a look at their standings position and their push for playoff qualification.

In their current 10-game segment (Games 61-70), the Lightning are just 2-3-2 through the first seven games. In order to meet the 12-points-in-10-games standard, they'll need to win the two games in New Jersey this week and Saturday's home contest against Montreal.
Certainly, it's been a tough stretch for the Lightning. But the good news is that, because they took care of business during the first six 10-game segments, they've been able to absorb this rough patch. Not only did they post at least 12 points in every one of those earlier segments, they also banked six 'bonus' points. Those bonus points can come in handy if/when a team hits a speed bump, as the Lightning have recently. In order to maintain playoff pace, they'd need 84 points after 70 games. They already have those 84 points through 67 games.
The finish line is in sight. The Lightning are still in terrific shape to qualify for the playoffs. Currently, all of the teams behind them in the Atlantic Division are well behind a 96-point pace.
The State of Their Game:Prior to their recently-completed four-game homestead, the Lightning were playing their worst hockey of the season. Not only were they mired in a five-game winless skid, they were allowing too many goals, too many shots, too many overall opposition chances, and too many high-danger opposition chances. The low point came in their March 5 loss in Carolina, a game in which they mustered only 14 shots on goal and were badly out-possessed.
The Lightning ended the winless streak by beating Philadelphia last Tuesday in the first game of the homestand. They ended up registering five out of a possible eight points. Following Sunday's defeat to Winnipeg, Jon Cooper lamented the fact that the Lightning likely left some points on the table. He felt they should have gotten at least a point out of the Winnipeg game and have taken two versus Vegas.
Beyond the results, however, the team's game improved from where it had been prior to the homestand. Cooper specifically mentioned that fact after Sunday's contest, although he cited the second game of the homestand - Thursday's contest against Vegas - as the turning point. In his mind, the Lightning yielded too many chances to the Flyers, even though Tampa Bay prevailed, 5-2.
In the last three games, the Lightning limited opposition shots and attempts. They owned the vast majority of the possession. They kept the overall opposition chance number down. One issue remained, which hurt them in the Vegas and Winnipeg games: the quality of the opposition chances. Both Golden Knights and Jets efficiently converted on the few looks they generated, in part because those chances were high-danger opportunities. They combined to score seven goals in the two games.
So there is still work to be done. And the Lightning will face a stiff test this week, playing three games against the Devils, who have established themselves as one of the top teams in the league this year. But there's no question that the Lightning used the homestand to sharpen their game and, in doing so, take an important step in the right direction.
The East's Wildcard Race: Heading into the trade deadline, there were seven(!) teams in contention for the East's two Wildcard spots. Those seven - two in Wildcard positions and five below the cut line - were only separated by a few points. There was a disparity in the games played column - Florida and the New York Islanders had fewer games remaining than the rest of the pack, but all seven had a legitimate path to playoff qualification.
Over the past couple of weeks, there has been some distance established between the seven. The Penguins are 7-1-1 in their last eight and have moved into Wildcard 1. The Islanders, despite a recent loss to Washington, have posted a 6-2-1 mark. They're in Wildcard 2. The Panthers are looking to make the most of a seven-game homestand, having gone 3-1-1 through the first five. Florida is positioned three points behind the Islanders.
Washington, Ottawa, Buffalo, and Detroit have not been able to keep pace. Those teams trail the Islanders for the final playoff spot by five or more points.
But there remains time for any of those clubs to make up ground. The Isles still have the fewest games left, so their hold on Wildcard 2 might be a precarious one. The Penguins, after an OT victory against the third-place Rangers on Sunday, are within striking distance of New York. The teams play back-to-back games in New York later this week. Those contests could give the Penguins a chance to get closer - or the results might push them back down to the other teams contending for a Wildcard spot.
Stay tuned. Even if some of those seven fall out of contention, it figures to be a close race to the finish line.