Mishkin's Musings: In series loss, Lightning can hold their heads high

Entering their playoff series against Toronto, the Lightning faced questions about whether they'd be able to 'flip the switch'. Their play over the final weeks of the regular season had not been stellar, particularly defensively. They finished tied for 14th in team defense, well below their usual standard. Furthermore, they would be facing a Toronto team that had made a marked improvement defensively (moving from 19th in 2021-22 to 7th this year). Consequently, most pundits picked the Leafs to win the series.

The Leafs did win the series, but it unfolded differently than anyone predicted.

The Lightning flipped the switch, reaching a level they hadn't displayed during the regular season - or in last year's matchup with the Leafs. After the series, both Steven Stamkos and Jon Cooper stated that they felt the Lightning actually played better in this series than they did in their seven-game triumph over Toronto in 2022.

But the Leafs overcame what was a significant territorial disadvantage by making key plays at crucial times.

The series can be separated into two distinct parts: the first two games and the next four. In Game One and Two, each team coughed up a clunker, leading to a lopsided defeat. In addition to the series having become a best-of-five, there was one other significant aftereffect from those opening two contests. During the second period of Game One, Erik Cernak was on the receiving end of an elbow from Michael Bunting. Cernak would be lost for the rest of the series.

The next four games were not identical, but they all followed similar trendlines. During five-on-five play, the Lightning dictated the majority of the action. The Maple Leafs struggled to contend with the Lightning's aggressive forecheck. The Lightning also efficiently moved pucks out of their own end, preventing Toronto from enjoying extended time in the offensive zone. Still, there were some isolated miscues. And those mistakes proved to be costly.

During the first period of Game Three, Toronto cashed in for a couple of goals, one on a three-on-two and the other on an Auston Matthews steal and eventual deflection goal. Twice, however, the Lightning rallied to tie. They held an edge in play during the opening frame, holding the Leafs to just 11 shot attempts. Then, in the second period, the Lightning decisively took over the game. Most of the frame was spent in the Toronto end. The Lightning grabbed the lead when Darren Raddysh scored his first NHL playoff goal.

The Lightning thought they'd taken a 4-2 lead when Brayden Point scored during a power play. But it was disallowed due to a quick whistle. So the Lightning's lead remained at one through 40 minutes.

While it's true that Toronto tied the game with a sixth-attacker goal at the 19:00 mark of the third, the Leafs had generated hardly any sustained pressure prior to the tally. Until the William Nylander shot that led to the Ryan O'Reilly rebound goal, Toronto had managed just three shots on goal in the entire period.

The Lightning dominated overtime, generating several scoring chances. But the Leafs would win it. Although they posted only two shots during the opening 19 minutes, they received an offensive zone face-off with just under a minute remaining. They won the draw and Rielly wristed a seeing-eye shot into the top of the net.

In Game Four, the Lightning came out of the gates well, building a 2-0 first period lead. Including the Game Three overtime period (which lasted almost a full 20 minutes), the Lightning had outplayed the Leafs for five consecutive periods. Finally, in the second period of Game Four, the Leafs began pushing back. They leveled the ice and applied more consistent pressure. But the Lightning still outscored Toronto, 2-1, in the frame.

Up 4-1 heading into the third, the Lightning were in good shape to tie the series. Over the first nine minutes of the final period, the Leafs had produced one dangerous shift (Andrei Vasilevskiy made a couple of point-blank saves on T.J. Brodie).

But then, in a span of just over six minutes, the lead vanished. Brodie made a fantastic pass from the neutral zone, springing Mitch Marner, Nylander, and Matthews on a three-on-two. Matthews finished the sequence. Shortly thereafter, the Lightning took a penalty. On the ensuing Toronto power play, Matthews scored again, converting on a tip from the slot. Finally, with just over four minutes left, John Tavares won an offensive zone face-off and Rielly's center point shot found its way through traffic and sailed past a screened Vasilevskiy.

The lost lead was shocking. Credit the Leafs for making terrific plays on the first two and executing well following an o-zone face-off win on the third. During that 6:20 span, they created three looks at the net. All three went in.

The Lightning had a chance to regain the lead. Less than a minute after the tying goal, the Leafs turned the puck over in the offensive zone and the Lightning countered on a three-on-two. But Ilya Samsonov stopped Alex Killorn's shot, preserving the tie.

Early in overtime, Samsonov made a save on Stamkos' shot from the slot. Soon after, the Lightning lost a defensive zone face-off and Mikhail Sergachev took a penalty to prevent a Nylander scoring chance. With only seconds left on the man advantage, the Leafs won the game on an Alexander Kerfoot tip. Of their five goals scored in Game Four, the Leafs netted three on perfect deflections and one other on another Rielly seeing-eye shot through a screen.

Games Three and Four were certainly the most pivotal games in the series. In the end, the Leafs made more plays at the most crucial moments.

In Game Five, the Lightning were the ones to make those key plays. They answered a Rielly opening goal on the next shift, tying the game in the first period. They grabbed the lead in the second and added a key insurance goal in the third (something they could have used in Game Three). That Nick Paul tally proved to be the difference in the game after Matthews tallied a sixth-attacker goal. Killorn sealed the victory with an empty-netter. The Lightning once again owned an advantage in all the metrics - they out possessed, outshot, and out chanced the Maple Leafs. Unlike in two earlier games, they got rewarded.

In Game Six, the Lightning might have grabbed a big first-period lead. They generated a handful of Grade-A looks. But Samsonov delivered his best period of work in the series, keeping the Lightning off the board. Over the final 40 minutes, both teams defended hard, so scoring chances were more limited. Matthews broke the 0-0 tie in the second with a blistering one-timer from the right circle before Stamkos tied it with a rebound goal early in the third.

As the teams dug in defensively during the second and third periods, the Lightning still maintained a territorial edge. They won more puck battles so they owned more possession. In the third period, Toronto registered only four shots on net. Two of those came on the same sequence, which yielded the Leafs' best (and only) scoring chance - Vasilevskiy stopped Matthews' rebound look from the slot.

In overtime, the Lightning had a chance to win the game with a two-on-one rush. But Samsonov made a save on Mikey Eyssimont's attempt. Minutes later, it was over. From the left circle into the Tampa Bay end, Tavares threw the puck towards the slot, where it banked off Raddysh's skate and caromed into the net.

Congratulations to the Leafs. This series victory was a long-time coming. It had been nineteen years since their last one and, with their current core, they had endured six consecutive exits in the first round. In some of those series, they played well enough to win - but didn't. The other side made the key plays at crucial times (including the Lightning in 2022).

To win the playoffs, you often need to get the breaks, too. In past series, the Leafs weren't on the receiving end of those breaks. In this series, they were.

For the Lightning, they can look back at this series as one of "missed opportunities", as Stamkos put it after Game Six. An extra play - either to finish a chance or prevent a Toronto look - would have swung any of their three losses in OT into the win column. But, as I mentioned at the beginning of this column, this loss didn't unfold the way many pundits expected. Other than in Game Two, the Lightning played well enough to win all of the other games. After the gut-wrenching defeats in Games Three and Four, they didn't go quietly into the offseason. They made the Leafs earn the series victory.