To Michkov, or not to Michkov

The National Hockey League draft, to an extent, is a bit of a crapshoot. Once the proceedings get past a certain set of top-notch prospects, it can be pretty difficult to identify which teenagers are going to become NHL players. Look at any draft rundown that's perhaps three or more years old, and it's plain to see the players who didn't turn into what teams thought they would be, and those who fell to later rounds but would go in the top 20 if it was possible to "re-draft" a class.

One of the biggest risk-reward players in the 2023 draft may be available when the Flyers pick at seventh overall. Russian winger Matvei Michkov is a dynamic 18-year-old forward who, over the past couple of years, has been the only player even temporarily ranked above Connor Bedard in scouting projections by any outlet engaging in the practice. Various comparisons have flown around from these outlets - that he'd be the top pick in any draft that didn't involve Bedard or Connor McDavid; that he's the best Russian prospect since Alex Ovechkin or Evgeni Malkin; that he's the best third-ranked player ever.

A look at Michkov's stats by themselves don't immediately thrust him to the top of any conversations. They show nine goals and 11 assists for 20 points in 27 games with Sochi of the KHL, where he was on loan from SKA St. Petersburgh. He also had 10 goals and four assists in 12 games for SKA's second-league team.

It's when and where those stats come from that are intriguing. Michkov first cracked the KHL with SKA in the 2021-22 season; he was 15 years old when that season started, so he played 13 games in the KHL at no older than age 16, which is a remarkable achievement. The season before, playing for Russia's U-18 national team as a 15-year-old, he had 12 goals and four assists in seven games against players mostly two years older than him, which is a better measure of where he stands up against his peers.

But it's his Russian ties that are leading to his uncertainty, and it will be extremely interesting to see how far that might knock him down the ladder at the draft. Geopolitical concerns aside, Michkov is under contract to SKA St. Petersburg through the 2025-26 season. That means the team that drafts him most likely won't see him until 2026, when he is 22 years old.

That in and of itself may not be a concern for the Flyers. They are on a rebuilding timeline, are in no hurry whatsoever, and have another first-round pick to play with this year. They can wait three years for Michkov to arrive, whereas some other teams above the Flyers may not be in a position to do that.

Imagine Danny Briere building the Flyers up to a playoff team perhaps as soon as 2024-25; then, after another season of additional progress, Matvei Michkov shows up having done something crazy like score 40 goals in the KHL as a 22-year-old. For reference, former NHL forward Dmitrij Jaskin just led the league with 40 goals over 67 games for SKA St. Petersburg this past season, but he's 30 and has 315 games of NHL experience.

The concerns, however, are real. One concern is that Michkov may simply not come over. Drafting him gives a team his NHL rights, but by no means requires him to come play here. Michkov has not given any indication of his future plans other than he does plan to play out his contract through 2025-26, but three years is a long timeframe of opportunity to change one's mind regardless of how he feels right now. He would not be the first Russian player to choose playing at home over playing in the NHL.

Another valid concern is that the team that drafts Michkov likely will not have any control over his development. While the vast majority of drafted players play in other leagues before coming to the NHL or the American Hockey League, the NHL club is able to meet with the players and his coaches and stay in touch about things. That will be far less effective with Michkov at SKA St. Petersburg. The front office staff there will have the ability to send Michkov anywhere they want in the Russian system, and they may not have the NHL team's interests in mind.

And then there are those pesky geopolitical events, which are affecting the hockey world even now. Russia and Belarus have been barred from most international competition over the past year, which means opportunities for NHL scouts to see Michkov have been limited. That situation could be completely resolved in three years. Or it could be worse, and Russian players could be barred from more competition. Could it ever reach a point where Russian players couldn't play in the NHL? It's not likely, but it's something a team that drafts Michkov has to at least consider.

Given all of this, teams that have selections in that 3-to-7 window, after Bedard and Adam Fantilli, have to seriously consider their options. Players like Leo Carlsson, Will Smith, and Ryan Leonard will all be there for the taking. Perhaps they won't end up being as good as Michkov, but none of them are going to turn down playing in the National Hockey League or be barred from doing so. Perhaps Michkov could turn out better than them, but he doesn't develop as well because the NHL team couldn't work with him before his KHL contract expired.

The other thing to consider is that for Michkov to be available, one of the teams ahead of the Flyers is going to have to take a player with a consensus-ranking that is below what is out there right now, because the team that does so has that player ranked higher than consensus in their internal rankings. That happens all the time, and is part of the excitement of the first round.

Those are the incredibly intriguing variables the Flyers will have to consider if Michkov is still on the board at #7. If he isn't, all this is moot. If he is, Carlsson, Smith and Leonard will all probably be gone. If that's the case, Michkov's potential may be so much better than the next group of players that he's worth the risk and the timeframe. The Flyers may be in a better position than Columbus and Montreal to wait for Michkov's contract to expire, but San Jose and Arizona may be able to be just as patient.

It all will make for a very interesting 60 minutes or so from the start of the draft through the Flyers' pick, and it's all only a couple of weeks away.