Mishkin's Musings: How the Lightning got past the Panthers

There was great anticipation leading into the First Round playoff series between the Lightning and Florida Panthers. Not only was it the first-ever postseason meeting between the clubs, it was to be a matchup between two of the NHL's top teams during the regular season.
There's no doubt that the series lived up to expectations. There was emotion and drama. High-skill plays. Comeback wins. Memorable goaltending performances. And, in the end, the Lightning emerged with a hard-fought six-game series victory. Here's how they did it.

As the Lightning saw first-hand during the regular season series against Florida, the Panthers play at a fast pace. They direct a lot of pucks towards the opposition net (they led the league in shots per game). They added depth at the trade deadline, with Sam Bennett slotting in as their number two center and Brandon Montour joining their group of top-six defensemen. So the Lightning knew they would be facing a deep, skilled team that pushes the pace of play. Of course, the Lightning are also a deep, skilled team that pushes the pace of play.
Due to their two victories over the Lightning at the end of the regular season, the Panthers earned home ice in the series. Game One in Sunrise began well for the Lightning. They controlled the early minutes and, even though they took a penalty at 7:18, they scored a shorthanded goal. Yanni Gourde took a lead feed from Ryan McDonagh and, as he brought it across the offensive blue line, drew two Florida players to him. That opened up the middle of the ice for Blake Coleman, who put a backhand shot between the right arm and body of Sergei Bobrovsky.
But the lead was short-lived. Before the initial PK had expired, the Lightning took another penalty. Aleksander Barkov converted on that second power play and his goal sparked the Panthers. Florida dominated play over the second half of the first period and took the lead when Carter Verhaeghe buried a shot from the slot past a screened Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Panthers finished the first period with 18 shots on net.
In the second period, however, the Panthers were the ones to get into penalty trouble. The Lightning received three power play chances in the frame. Nikita Kucherov, making his season debut, scored on two of them. The Lightning had some good looks on the other chance as well. The power play success fueled the Lightning's five-on-five game, too. They posted 16 second period shots and took a 3-2 lead into the intermission.
Two costly Lightning turnovers early in the third led to a pair of Florida odd-man rush counter goals. Down 4-3, the Lightning didn't have much going until Bennett charged Coleman with 7:41 remaining. Back on the power play, the Lightning promptly tied the game - Kucherov, after selling a shot, delivered a perfect pass to Brayden Point in the slot. Point redirected the puck into the net.
Following that goal, the Lightning posted eight of the next nine shots. The one Florida shot was a dangerous one - Vasilevskiy stopped Barkov on a two-on-one. But moments later, McDonagh blocked a shot and fed Point on a breakaway. Point's backhand goal with 1:14 remaining was the game-winner. Game One featured big momentum swings, several lead changes, and a lethal Lightning power play, which accounted for three goals and twice helped the Lightning rally from deficits.

In Game Two, the Panthers started the game by trying the push the pace as successfully as they had done in the final 10 minutes of Game One's first period. Their aggressiveness did allow them to possess the puck in the offensive zone for several lengthy shifts. But it also left them open to counter chances. In the first period, the Lightning generated numerous odd-man looks. They cashed in on two of their opportunities. Anthony Cirelli held a puck in the offensive zone as four Panthers were the process of moving up ice, away from their net. Cirelli slid the puck to Alex Killorn below those four Florida players, creating a two-on-one down low. Killorn gave it to Steven Stamkos, whose return feed deflected into the net off Anton Stralman. Later in the period, Point danced around MacKenzie Weegar inside the Florida blue line, leading to another odd-man chance. Point's shot hit the post, but Ondrej Palat put in the rebound.
The Lightning came out of the first period up by two goals, but they hadn't been able to convert on other glorious chances. Cirelli hit the crossbar on one, Gourde bobbled the puck on a three-on-one, and the Lightning passed their way out of other odd-man rushes.
Those odd-man looks dried up over the final 40 minutes and overall, the Panthers limited chances against. Mason Marchment's goal at 14:21 of the second pulled Florida within a goal, but the Panthers couldn't tie it. The Lightning delivered three successful penalty kills, including two in the third period when the game was 2-1. Vasilevskiy also provided some timely saves down the stretch - he made a point-blank stop on Verhaeghe in the final five minutes of regulation. Gourde sealed the win with an empty-netter.
Florida head coach Joel Quenneville had elected to start goalie Chris Driedger in Game Two after Bobrovsky had allowed five goals in Game One. Driedger, who couldn't be faulted on either of the goals he yielded in Game Two, got the start in Game Three as well. And for the first time in the series, the Panthers scored first. Off the rush, Jonathan Huberdeau made a terrific cross-ice pass to Bennett at the back post. Bennett put it in for the opening goal at 4:31. Following a Lightning icing, Huberdeau won the offensive zone face-off and Radko Gudas fired a shot from the right point into the net, extending the lead. With momentum providing wind at their back, the Panthers buzzed around the offensive zone for much of the rest of the period. Vasilevskiy was sharp in keeping the deficit at two.
Early in the second, the Lightning got on the board. Cirelli snapped a 28-game goal skid with a rebound tally at 1:57 after Driedger made an initial save on Victor Hedman's point shot. Just under four minutes later, the Lightning tied it. Ross Colton wired a shot from the right circle into the top of the net. The Lightning would tack on three more goals in the frame - Stamkos finished an odd-man rush chance at 8:38, and Point and Killorn scored power play goals. (After Killorn's tally, the Panthers replaced Driedger with Bobrovsky.) The five goals in the period set a Lightning playoff franchise record for goals in a period. But there was plenty of activity at the other end of the ice, too. The Panthers posted 17 second period shots, including numerous scoring chances. They converted on one of those - Alex Wennberg's power play tally got past a screened Vasilevskiy. But Vasilevskiy was brilliant in denying the other 16 Florida shots. Thanks to the offensive outburst and Vasilevskiy's goaltending, the Lightning came out of the second period with a 5-3 lead.
An early third period Lightning penalty gave Florida a chance to pull closer and the Panthers did just that. Patric Hornqvist earned credit for a power play goal at 1:45 when Huberdeau's pass deflected in off his skate. Down 5-4, the Panthers applied steady pressure for the rest of the period. Eventually, that pressure yielded the tying goal. Wennberg knocked down a Lightning clearing attempt and the Panthers worked the puck to an open Gustav Forsling in the slot. Forsling wristed a shot past Vasilevskiy to tie the game at 16:53.
Overtime didn't last long, but the Lightning had a couple of chances to win it. They carried a power play into the start of OT, but missed the net on a couple of shot attempts. After the penalty ended, Bobrovsky stopped two shots from Colton. Mikhail Sergachev hit the crossbar with a shot from the left point. But the winning goal would go to Ryan Lomberg, who got behind the Lightning defense and scored on a breakaway at 5:56.
The Panthers carried their strong play from Game Three into the first period of Game Four. It was truly a strange period. The Panthers dominated possession during the opening 20 minutes. They recorded 15 shots and likely upwards of 10 scoring chances. Vasilevskiy was, again, outstanding while under siege. He only allowed a rebound goal to Huberdeau during a Florida power play. At the other end, the Lightning managed to post just seven shots on net. But three went in. And they were all scoring chances. A bad read and ill-timed line change by Florida led to Cirelli's breakaway goal three minutes into the game. Gourde and Palat also scored on perfectly-executed deflections.
So somewhat improbably, the Lightning came out of what was a very loose and leaky first period with a 3-1 lead. They cleaned things up to start the second, however. They defended tighter and limited turnovers, leading to more possession time. And they added to their lead - Killorn scored twice within the first 7:15, making the score 5-1 and chasing Bobrovsky.
There had been plenty of rough play and post-whistle altercations between the teams during the final two games of the regular season. That carried over into Game One, which featured five separate four-on-four situations (after penalties were called on both teams). In Game Four, the nastiness between the teams reached a new level, however. During the first two periods, the Lightning twice were put on the penalty kill for a post-whistle infraction. And after it was 5-1, the Lightning had to kill five consecutive penalties through the end of the second period and into the start of the third. The Panthers finished Game Four with 17(!) power play shots. During that stretch in the second period, they applied heavy pressure while on those man advantages. Yet again, Vasilevskiy was spectacular in erasing scoring chances. He allowed just one goal during those five penalty kills. In all, he made 18 second period saves and the Lightning got through that segment with a 5-2 lead. Kucherov's early third period power play goal made it 6-2 and essentially ended the game. But not before he and Sergachev had to leave with injuries caused by Florida players. Understandably, tempers were running high on the Lightning side afterwards, both because of how the game was officiated and due to the injuries.

Fortunately, Kucherov and Sergachev were able to return for the next game. But their status wasn't the only question heading into Game Five. Through the first four contests, trends had emerged. Offenses had gained the upper hand on team defenses. Other than the Lightning's defensive outing in Game Two, neither team had defended particularly well to that point in the series. Both teams had been consistently dangerous when in possession of the puck. Because the Panthers had possessed the puck more (an advantage they extended during the two games in Tampa), they had produced more shots and scoring chances. But even though they had less overall possession in the series, the Lightning had been successful in generating plenty of scoring chances themselves. One of the biggest reasons why the Lightning were up in the series was that Vasilevskiy had been able to turn aside more scoring chances than either Bobrovsky or Driedger. That's how the Lightning, despite being outshot and outchanced, held a 19-13 edge in goals scored.
The other key through four games was special teams play. Both teams had been proficient on the power play. The Lightning were 7-15 and the Panthers were 5-15. But the series had tipped to the Lightning in part because of their penalty kill. In their Game Two and Game Four victories, the Lightning's PK had delivered crucial kills. Similarly, in Florida's Game Three win, the Panthers had saved the game by killing a penalty in overtime.
So two big questions heading to Game Five were a) would either team find its defensive game and b) would special teams continue to play such a significant role?
The Panthers made big news for Game Five by starting 20-year old rookie goalie Spencer Knight. Knight allowed a goal on the first shot he faced as the Lightning converted on a two-on-one rush. But he stopped the next 36 Lightning shots in Game Five, including 21 during the first period. The Panthers had their looks in the first period, too, firing 15 shots at Vasilevskiy, including seven while on two separate power plays.
But once the second period began, both teams tightened things up defensively. The Lightning didn't generate many looks over the final 40 minutes. Neither did the Panthers, but they were still able to rally from the 1-0 deficit. Weegar scored off a face-off, putting a perfect shot into the top of the net. A coverage miscue from the Lightning did yield a chance and a goal from Marchment. Early in the third, a Barkov power play shot hit Hornqvist and deflected into the Lightning net. Up 3-1, the Panthers successfully locked things down the rest of the way and forced Game Six.
Game Six was the Lightning's best overall performance in the series. While they did a better job in Game Five of limiting shots and scoring chances, they didn't play with the necessary urgency to eliminate a quality opponent. In Game Six, they did. Buoyed by the return of Barclay Goodrow, the Lightning played a structured, physical, disciplined game. They received an early goal from Pat Maroon after Tyler Johnson won a skate race to negate an icing.
The Panthers made a push in the second period, a frame in which they received their only two power plays in the game. But the Lightning battled hard defensively to take away potential scoring chances. And when the Panthers did produce good looks, Vasilevskiy turned them away. Also, the Lightning did well to prevent any second chance opportunities after Vasilevskiy made initial stops.
The Lightning's PK delivered those two important kills in the second. The Panthers' penalty kill couldn't. Following a roughing call on Bennett, the Lightning added to their lead. Stamkos drilled a one-timer into the top of the net at 13:27.
Just as the Panthers effectively handled a two-goal third period lead in Game Five, the Lightning did the same in Game Six. They consistently worked pucks out of their own end and got them deep to the Panthers zone. They used long, offensive zone shifts to milk the clock and force Florida to play defense. As time ticked down, the Panthers had to press and they ended up allowing counter chances to the Lightning. With less than six minutes left, the Lightning added a third goal. Kucherov and Point teamed up on a highlight-reel play. Kucherov chased a puck into the offensive zone and pulled up at the left circle. He delivered a backhand pass to Point in the slot. Point swerved around Weegar and went wide on Knight before tucking the puck into the net. Killorn's empty-netter erased any doubt about the outcome of Game Six - and the series.

There were several keys to this Lightning series win. The first four games were far more wide-open than the last two. In those contests, the Lightning were more efficient in finishing their opportunities than the Panthers, even though Florida held an edge in overall shots and scoring chances. Special teams played a role throughout the six games. Power play success often helped the winning team. But just as importantly, the units that came up with crucial penalty kills within a game greatly helped their cause. The Lightning weren't happy with the volume of kills they had for much of the series, but with just two kills in the clinching game, they did a terrific job of staying out of the box.
The Panthers never came up with a solution for Kucherov, especially when the Lightning were on the power play. Kucherov set a franchise record with 11 points in the series. The Lightning scored eight power play goals. Kucherov had a point on seven of those. So did Victor Hedman. Point scored big goals, both in Game One and Game Five. Killorn tallied a team-high four goals and he and Stamkos both posted eight points. Then there was Vasilevskiy. His overall numbers in the series may not have been eye-popping, although he held to Panthers to two goals or less in three of the six games. But the takeaway from this series about Vasilevskiy isn't the number of goals he allowed. It's the number of scoring chances he stopped.
A word on the Panthers. They are an excellent team, one that took a huge step forward this year. Congratulations to Bill Zito, Joel Quenneville, and the entire Panthers organization on a wonderful season. This figures to be a compelling intra-state rivalry between the teams for years to come.
Next up for the Lightning is Carolina, another team that plays at a high pace and puts constant pressure on the opposition. We'll see if the Round Two series proves to be as entertaining as the one the Lightning just wrapped up.