SKATE SHAVINGS - News and Notes from Caps' Morning Skate 8/3

21 Jump Street - For the first time in exactly 21 weeks, the Caps are back in action on Monday afternoon, playing a "meaningful" hockey game against the Tampa Bay Lightning. But the word "meaningful" is s relative term in this case.

While a typical Stanley Cup Playoff would involve 16 teams, the NHL's return to play includes two dozen clubs, a dozen from each conference. The top four teams - based on regular season points percentage - in each of the League's two conferences have won what amounts to a more leisurely re-entry into the on-ice battles. They'll play a three-game round robin set this week while the other 16 teams are engaged in a legitimate playoff series with legitimate consequences: lose the best-of-five series and you go home to await the start of the 2020-21 season, whenever that may be.

For 16 teams this week, three losses will result in the end of its season and a trip home. A similar three-loss, worst-case scenario for the Caps or one of the other round robin participants would be a fourth seed heading into the actual Stanley Cup playoffs. That would result in potentially just one playoff series of "home-ice advantage" in a neutral site arena with no fans.

Both Washington and Tampa Bay have recent history with insurmountable late-season leads in the regular season conference standings, and the difficulty of attaching "meaning" to late season games with no real consequences: the Caps won consecutive Presidents' Trophies in that fashion in 2015-16 and 2016-17, and the Lightning did so in 2018-19.

Those recent stretch-drive experiences may prove useful in the week of round robin games ahead. While the tangible downside of a bad week isn't that damning in the short term, round-robin teams will face one of those lower seeded "play-in" teams next week when the more traditional 16-team playoffs get underway. Round robin teams run the risk of finding themselves a step behind the pace of the 5-12 seeds that have been battling for their continued existence in these playoffs since the first drop of the puck this past weekend.

"I think that every chance to play a game against an opponent is a chance for our team to improve, to get better," says Caps coach Todd Reirden. "Obviously the NHL had to come up with some formula. Certainly if this was normal playoff time we wouldn't be going through this; because we won our division we'd actually be the second [seeded] team in the Eastern Conference and have that slot.

"We obviously want to try to finish as high as we can, and I think with our lineup and the matchups I like to have, the longer and more time you can have as a home team in playoff games is important. So we're going to continue to try to get better, and obviously we know we're going against a team, the Tampa Bay Lightning, [that was] definitely one of the best prior to the pause. You watch them play against Florida [in an exhibition game] the other day, and they look really sharp. We're going to have to be on top of our game. Either way, we're going to take some growth from this and prepare ourselves ultimately for that round one start."

Both Reirden and Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper had the luxury of watching a slew of play-in games and a couple round-robin contests as well, before their own teams head down the same path Monday afternoon. On Sunday morning, Cooper discussed what he saw in the League's return to play on Saturday.

"I would say the surprise is your better be ready in the first five minutes of the game," said Cooper, "because there were some thunderous hits, right from the outset of the Carolina-Rangers game all the way up. Regardless of if there are fans or not, we all love to have fans in the building and they energize you as a team, but it looks like guys are pretty energized and into this because I thought the play right from the outset - especially the physicality - was at an extremely high level."

One last thing here. Because these round robin games don't result in elimination, the Caps don't need to rush John Carlson back into their lineup, and Tampa Bay can take the same approach with injured captain Steven Stamkos. Carlson was injured late in last Wednesday's exhibition game against Carolina while Stamkos' ailment dates back a bit further.

Reirden called Carlson a "game time decision" on Monday morning, but if the Norris Trophy finalist isn't at 100 percent, he is unlikely to play.

Special Delivery - Many of the weekend games in the NHL were penalty-filled, and special teams played a larger role than some may have expected, given that playoff games typically aren't called as tightly as regular season contests from an officiating standpoint. But with a gap of nearly five months between games that matter, players' legs may be a bit shy of midseason form.

Washington had a strong penalty kill throughout the regular season, and they know the Lightning features some of the best extra-man skill in the league. Tampa Bay's aggregate 22.7% power play success rate over the last five seasons is second only to Boston's 23.4% over the same span.

"We know they have a good power play," says Caps defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler, Washington's leader in average shorthanded ice time per game (3:11). "We know what we have to take away from their power play, and what we've got to pay attention to. They're doing a good job of pre-scouting of the teams. We've watched enough videos of Tampa this season, and everybody knows they're dangerous players, and we've just got to take them away and do a good job."

The Caps will need to heed Siegenthaler's words at even strength, too. From Dec. 22 to the end of the 2019-20 season on March 11, the Lightning led the NHL with 89 goals at 5-on-5. They finished nine goals ahead of the second-place team on that ledger - the New York Rangers - and the gap between the Bolts and the Blueshirts was the largest between any of the 31 teams in the league.

In The Nets - Braden Holtby will get the net for Washington on Monday against the Lightning. Just over two years ago, Holtby and the Caps bested the Bolts in a seven-game Eastern Conference Final series, and Holtby sealed the deal with consecutive shutouts in Games 6 and 7. In those seven Stanley Cup Playoff games against the Lightning, Holtby fashioned a 2.04 GAA and a .919 save pct.

Lifetime against the Lightning in the regular season, Holtby is 12-4-3 with a couple of shutouts, a 2.86 GAA and a .905 save pct. Lifetime in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, Holtby is 48-41 with seven shutouts, a 2.09 GAA and a .928 save pct.

Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to man the crease for the Lightning. During that aforementioned seven-game Conference Final series two years ago, Vasilevskiy posted a 3.17 GAA and a .906 save pct.

Lifetime against Washington during the regular season, Vasilevskiy is 4-6-1 with a 3.70 GAA and an .897 save pct. During his NHL career, Vasilevskiy is 15-15 in 33 playoff games with a 2.83 GAA and a .912 save pct.

All Lined Up - Here's our best guess at how we expect the Caps and the Lightning to look on Monday afternoon in Toronto in the opener of round-robin play for both teams:

WASHINGTON

Forwards

8-Ovechkin, 92-Kuznetsov, 43-Wilson

13-Vrana, 19-Backstrom, 77-Oshie

62-Hagelin, 20-Eller, 17-Kovalchuk

14-Panik, 26-Dowd, 21-Hathaway

Defensemen

4-Dillon, 9-Orlov

6-Kempny, 33-Gudas

34-Siegenthaler, 3-Jensen

Goaltenders

70-Holtby

41-Vanecek

Injuries

30-Samsonov (out for the playoffs)

74-Carlson (day-to-day)

Scratches

1-Copley

10-Sprong

16-Maillet

24-McMichael

27-Alexeyev

42-Fehervary

47-Malenstyn

64-Pinho

72-Boyd

78-Lewington

TAMPA BAY

Forwards

18-Palat, 21-Point, 86-Kucherov

17-Killorn, 71-Cirelli, 9-Johnson

20-Coleman, 37-Gourde, 19-Goodrow

14-Maroon, 67-Stephens, 13-Paquette

Defensemen

77-Hedman, 24-Bogosian

27-McDonagh, 81-Cermak

98-Sergachev, 22-Shattenkirk

Goaltenders

88-Vasilievskiy

35-McElhinney

Injuries

91-Stamkos

Scratches

2-Schenn

7-Joseph

23-Verhaeghe

31-Wedgewood

44-Ruutta

55-Coburn