Merzlikins, Francouz, Shesterkin should start in Qualifiers, numbers show

NHL.com goes Behind the Numbers to identify key statistics for the Stanley Cup Qualifiers. The NHL season was paused March 12 due to concerns surrounding the coronavirus. Under the Return to Play Plan, 24 teams will compete for the Stanley Cup -- 12 in the Eastern Conference, in Toronto, 12 in the Western Conference, in Edmonton -- starting Aug. 1.

Today, a look at which goalies deserve the starting jobs for the Columbus Blue Jackets, Colorado Avalanche and New York Rangers.

Columbus Blue Jackets

The battle to be the No. 1 against the Toronto Maple Leafs in the Stanley Cup Qualifiers is between Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins, who combined to help the Blue Jackets to a 5-on-5 save percentage of 92.8 percent, fifth in the NHL behind the Boston Bruins (93.3), Dallas Stars (93.2), Colorado Avalanche (93.2) and Arizona Coyotes (92.9). Korpisalo was 19-12-5 with a .920 even-strength save percentage (tied for 20th among NHL goalies who played at least 30 games), and Merzlikins went 13-9-8 with a .926 even-strength save percentage (tied for sixth). So Merzlikins has the edge at even strength, but helping to shut down the Maple Leafs power play, which was tied for fifth in the NHL at 23.1 percent, also will be crucial in the best-of-5 series. Merzlikins' .882 save percentage when facing the power play was tied for 13th in the NHL, and Korpisalo's .871 ranked 21st. The numbers suggest that Merzlikins, despite being a rookie, gives Columbus the best chance against Toronto.

Colorado Avalanche

Philipp Grubauer and Pavel Francouz are expected to split time in the round-robin against the St. Louis Blues, Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars to determine seeding for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. But does one goalie have the statistical advantage over the other? Grubauer was 18-12-4 with a .929 even-strength save percentage (tied for third; minimum 30 games), and Francouz was 21-7-4 with a .921 even-strength save percentage (tied for 15th). But Francouz was decidedly better against the power play, with a .912 save percentage (fifth) compared to Grubauer's .867 percent (tied for 23rd), and that could be the deciding factor in favor of Francouz for the Avalanche, who were tied for 13th in the NHL on the penalty kill (81.4 percent), as they look ahead to the playoffs.

New York Rangers

Will New York start rookie goalie Igor Shesterkin over Alexandar Georgiev and Henrik Lundqvist against the Carolina Hurricanes? Using all three goalies in the regular season, the Rangers had a 5-on-5 save percentage of 92.0 percent (tied for 12th). Shesterkin was 10-2-0 with a .932 save percentage, second in the NHL behind Chris Driedger of the Florida Panthers (.938) among goalies who played at least 10 games. Georgiev was 17-14-2 with a .910 save percentage (tied for 32nd), and Lundqvist was 10-12-3 with a .905 save percentage (tied for 42nd). Shesterkin's .935 even-strength save percentage was fourth behind Anton Khudobin of the Stars (.945), Driedger (.944) and Tuukka Rask of the Bruins (.939), and his .915 save percentage against the power play was tied for fourth with Mike Smith of the Edmonton Oilers behind Martin Jones of the San Jose Sharks (.918), Robin Lehner of the Golden Knights and Chicago Blackhawks (.918), and Antti Raanta of the Coyotes (.917). Lundqvist's .919 even-strength save percentage was tied for 32nd, and Georgiev's .914 was tied for 40th. Lundqvist is 33-12-1 with a .934 save percentage against the Hurricanes, including 3-0-0 with a .947 save percentage this season, but Shesterkin's numbers are too good for the Rangers to overlook heading into the best-of-5 series.