Mishkin's Musings: 30 to go
Dave Mishkin with three thoughts as the Bolts begin the stretch run
© Mark LoMoglio/Getty Images
The Lightning have maintained playoff pace. The Lightning have accumulated at least 12 points in every one of their first five 10-game segments this year. In their most-recently completed segment (Games 41-50), they went 6-3-1, good for 13 points. So they added an additional "bonus" point to their total. As they began segment 51-60, they had 66 points - or six "bonus" points. They've already won the first two games in this segment. In other words, the Lightning have put themselves in excellent position to make the playoffs.
Their consistency in "munching points", as Jon Cooper calls it, has been impressive this year. Here's their point total from each of the 10-game segments: 12, 13, 16, 12, 13. A big reason for this consistency has been their ability to avoid extended losing/winless skids. On six occasions, they've dropped two in a row. But they've not lost three straight.
It'll be an East-heavy schedule down the stretch. Of their remaining 30 regular season games, the Lightning will play 23 against teams from the Eastern Conference. That's because, since New Year's Eve, they've seen mostly Western Conference clubs.
Starting with that December 31st game versus Arizona, the Lightning have played 18 games. Fifteen have come against the West. Once they finish this four-game trip, they'll have just four non-Conference contests left and they'll all be at home.
By next week, the Lightning will have knocked out most of their lengthiest travel. There's still one four-game trip in March and several road back-to-backs. But over the final seven weeks of the regular season, the Lightning won't leave the Eastern Time Zone.
Team defense and penalty killing are two areas to sharpen in the final 30. They're related, of course. A club's penalty kill percentage affects its team defense numbers. This is not meant to imply that the Lightning have been poor in either category. But both could improve before the regular season ends. Because, as the Lightning know well from their many extended postseason runs, team defense and penalty killing are two categories crucial to playoff success.
Even in the regular season, team defense is important. When ranking clubs by their goals-allowed-per-game-average, 12 of the top 16 teams are currently in playoff position. Three of the four below the playoff cut line - the New York Islanders, Calgary, and Nashville - are the three teams closest to that line. There are also four teams in the bottom half of the league for team defense that do hold a playoff spot. Not surprisingly, three of those four teams are just beneath the midpoint. Seattle, Pittsburgh, and Edmonton rank 17th, 18th, and 19th, respectively. So even during this season in which offensive numbers are up, defense matters.
The Lightning are allowing 2.92 goals per game, tied for 13th in the league. Cooper often states that once the opposition scores three goals in a game, the outcome hangs in the balance. Before the Lightning shut out Colorado and held Dallas to one goal in the past two games, their team GA-per-game average had crept up over three.
What about the penalty kill? Special teams can be streaky and the Lightning delivered a strong PK December. They allowed only two opposition power play goals during the entire month. But for the season, the Lightning rank just 14th in penalty killing. Similar to their GA-per-game number, they're in the middle of the pack.
Let's see if the Lightning can get both of those rankings into the top-10.
A couple of final points. The Lightning have not fared well in the second half of back-to-backs so far this year, going 3-5-1. This hasn't affected their standings position, however. Furthermore, back-to-backs in the playoffs are extremely rare. And when they happen within a series, both teams are in the same boat.
But then there's the overall road record. They are just 13-12-0 after 25 games. Being able to win on the road in the playoffs is paramount. Hopefully, they can build upon Saturday's victory in Dallas and add more points to their total when they visit Colorado, Arizona, and Vegas to round out this trip.
