Goalies who excel in October could have advantage in Cup Qualifiers

Goaltending will be one of the biggest questions when the Stanley Cup Qualifiers begin Saturday.

Coaches are trying to figure out if their No. 1 goalie is prepared for a strong start and determine which of two goalies to rely upon, so all information is being analyzed.

Among the things under the microscope for Nashville Predators coach John Hynes is how goalies have started past seasons.

"You do take into account with the goalies how they started the season, their tendencies, the back-to-backs," Hynes said July 13 at the start of training camp about choosing between Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros, who had taken the No. 1 job before the season was paused March 12 due to concerns surrounding the coronavirus.

If that is the case, it is one metric in which Rinne, who won the Vezina Trophy in 2018, has a clear advantage. Rinne has a career .922 save percentage in 82 October games, while Saros has an .893 save percentage in 16 October games. Of course, Saros has never had the benefit of being a starter to begin a season and playing regular games to find his rhythm and timing, so the comparison isn't totally fair, but other aspects will be factored into the equation.

Using how a goalie has started past seasons as a gauge makes sense because the four months between the pause and the start of training camp resembled a typical offseason for most goalies, at least in length.

Previous success in October will also provide a sense of calm to the goalies, who look for positives during their preparation.

"You grab onto everything that's going to help you feel confident and comfortable, and if you've had good starts to the season and you know that feeling in the first game where it feels a little weird and the intensity is through the roof compared to what you've been doing, and you're used to that, then use it the best you can," said Minnesota Wild goalie Devan Dubnyk, who is battling Alex Stalock for the starting job. "Nothing is going to just magically happen for anybody because you've had good starts to the season before, but at the same time, even if it's being comfortable mentally knowing, 'Hey, I've played a lot of Game 1 season starts, I know what it feels like to hop in and have that bit of a strange feeling,' then you use it."

Robin Lehner of the Vegas Golden Knights sounds like he takes comfort in a history of strong starts. Lehner had a .936 save percentage in October this season with the Chicago Blackhawks, was 3-0-0 with a .940 save percentage after being traded to Vegas on Feb. 24 and has a .927 save percentage in 37 career October games.

"I think my type of game gets affected a little bit less than maybe some other goalies because I play a bit differently. I don't move as much, [I'm] a little more patient, and I think that helps transition in after breaks like this," Lehner said. "My game is not that reliant on being overly athletic, it's more of reading plays and getting my reactions back."

The Golden Knights should be fine with either of their goalies based on past starts to a season. Marc-Andre Fleury had a .920 save percentage in October this season, and a .919 save percentage in 127 career October games, well above his .913 career percentage. Fleury and Lehner will split playing time during the round-robin, according to coach Peter DeBoer.

The Golden Knights play the Dallas Stars (Aug. 3), St. Louis Blues (Aug. 6) and Colorado Avalanche (Aug. 8) to determine seeding in the Stanley Cup Playoffs in the Western Conference.

Other goalies with strong historical performances in October include Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets (.921 save percentage this season and in 32 career games), Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Tampa Bay Lightning (.910 this season, .925 in 30 career games), Darcy Kuemper of the Arizona Coyotes (.933 this season, .921 in 26 career games) and Antti Raanta of the Coyotes (.926 in 22 career games).

Conversely, the Stars have had one of the best tandems in the NHL the past two seasons, but October has not been one of the better months for either Ben Bishop (.913 save percentage in 66 career October games; 921 for his career) and Anton Khudobin (.900 in 24 October games; 919 for his career). Toronto Maple Leafs No. 1 Frederik Andersen had a .901 save percentage this season and is .911 in 30 games in October, below his .917 career average.

There's also nothing saying success or struggles in October applies each season, but it is something to consider.

Boston Bruins No.1 Tuukka Rask has a career .917 save percentage in 58 October games, but was 6-0-1 with a .951 save percentage this season.

"I think it does apply to some extent if guys are slow starters or not, but at the same time it's a whole different story when it comes to the playoffs," said Carolina Hurricanes goalie James Reimer, who had a .918 save percentage in five appearances in October. "And I think that's how it is for this one. You're jumping straight into the fire and that's a lot different than when you're just starting out a regular season. Some guys approach it like, 'All right, it's an 82-game season, let's be good all year,' and not necessarily 'Let's start out on fire,' so I think this is going to be so different."