Goal-scoring race between Matthews, Pastrnak debated by NHL.com

Auston Matthews and David Pastrnak take center stage when the Toronto Maple Leafs visit the Boston Bruins at TD Garden on Thursday (7:30 p.m. ET; HULU, ESPN+, SNO, TVAS) in a nationally televised showdown.

Matthews, a center, leads the Maple Leafs (5-3-1) in goals and has 10 points (seven goals, three assists) in nine games. Pastrnak, a forward, tops the Bruins (8-0-1) with eight goals and 14 points.

Toronto is looking to make up ground, already six points behind Boston, which leads the Atlantic Division and has yet to lose in regulation through its first nine games.

There are other stars on the ice and the stakes are already high early in the season, but the main storyline could very well be Matthews vs. Pastrnak. Each is an elite goal-scorer.

Pastrnak won the battle last season, scoring 61 goals in 82 games, second in the NHL behind Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (64). Matthews had 40 in 74 games.

Traditionally, though, the race between these two elite players is much closer.

Since Matthews entered the League in 2016-17, after being selected No. 1 by the Maple Leafs in the 2016 NHL Draft, he has 306 goals in 490 regular-season games, the most by any player in that stretch. Pastrnak, selected No. 25 by the Bruins in the 2014 NHL Draft, has 284 goals in 504 regular-season games, fifth-best behind Matthews, Alex Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals (299), McDavid and Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl (each has 289).

So, which player -- Matthews or Pastrnak -- will score more goals this season? We asked six NHL.com writers for their opinion.

Matthews: Pastrnak has the early lead with eight goals in nine games; Matthews has seven in nine. And this is after Pastrnak had 61 goals, while Matthews had 40. But I’m going with Matthews. Since Matthews entered the NHL in 2016-17, he leads the NHL in goals per game (0.62) among players who have played more than one game. Ovechkin is next (0.58), followed by Pastrnak (0.56). Since 2020-21, the gap has grown. Matthews leads the NHL in goals per game (0.71) among players who have played more than one game. McDavid is next (0.64), followed by Draisaitl (0.63). Pastrnak is next (0.61). If they play around the same number of games, Matthews should score more goals. -- Nicholas J. Cotsonika, columnist

Pastrnak: The Bruins went into this season knowing they were set in goal with Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman. They knew they were set on defense with Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm. The biggest question for Boston is trying to replicate -- or even get anywhere close -- to what it did last season offensively. Pastrnak knew that much of the onus and pressure would fall on him after the departures of centers David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron. As I’ve watched Pastrnak through the years, since his debut at 18 in 2014, I’ve seen him take on more responsibility on and off the ice, watching him grow into his own. I believe he knows this season could rise and fall on his production. I think he takes that to heart. -- Amalie Benjamin, staff writer

Matthews: The Maple Leafs forward has an innate ability to find open space on the ice and utilize his amazing shot. Often watching him, you are left wondering how he was so wide open in a prime scoring position, but that is a trait all great goal-scorers have. Over the course of an 82-game season, I believe Matthews will outscore Pastrnak simply because scoring goals is his main responsibility, and he does it better than anyone. Matthews is the Maple Leafs’ first choice in any goal-scoring situation and is equally as dangerous on the rush as he is finding open pockets of space in the offensive zone. Matthews’ best season was in 2021-22 when he had 60 goals in 73 games and with seven in his first nine games this season, is on pace to surpass that total. -- Derek Van Diest, staff writer

Pastrnak: I’m going with the Bruins forward on this one. With Bergeron and Krejci lost to retirement, opportunities for others to score have opened. Who better than Pastrnak to take advantage, especially because he was so prolific entering this season anyway? The 27-year-old scored a career-high 61 goals last season and I’m guessing he expects to get as close to that as he can, or top that, this season. Pastrnak has been outstanding for the Bruins, and I think he tops Matthews in the goal department this season. -- Tracey Myers, staff writer

Matthews: Each player is highly skilled, and it wouldn’t be surprising if either wins the Rocket Richard Trophy this season, but I’m going with Matthews because he’s healthy. Last season, he was coming off wrist surgery and dealing with a nagging hand injury and still scored 40 goals. When Matthews was healthy two seasons ago, he led the NHL with 60 goals and was the League’s first 60-goal scorer since Steven Stamkos with the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2011-12. Matthews demonstrated he was back to his 2021-22 form by scoring hat tricks in his first two games this season (only Ovechkin in 2017-18 had done that since 1917-18). Matthews’ ability to score goals in different ways and from different spots on the ice is what makes him so difficult to stop and gives him an advantage. “From a pre-scout standpoint, it’s really difficult to say, ‘Hey, we’re going to show you 20 different ways that Auston is going to be able to score. Be ready for all of them,’” Capitals coach Spencer Carbery said last week. “That’s the challenge.” Carbery knows because he saw it up close as an assistant with the Maple Leafs the past two seasons. -- Tom Gulitti, staff writer

Pastrnak: Why Pastrnak over Matthews? Well, I mean, I could have easily gone the other way. It’s not as if we’re talking Pastrnak over some dude here. We’re talking Pastrnak over an all-time goal-scorer. But my reason is Pastrnak is also an all-time goal-scorer and he plays on the wing, so his job is to get open for the pass, to drive or dash or hold up to create room without the puck so his teammates can then get the puck to him. Matthews, as a center, sometimes has to create both the room and the goal. In a lot of situations, Pastrnak just has to get the puck and finish. He also knows he has to shoot. He’s Boston’s go-to scorer. Matthews has more proven elite forwards around him in John Tavares, William Nylander and Mitchell Marner. It’s Pastrnak and Brad Marchand in Boston, and Pastrnak is the pure goal-scorer. He scored 61 goals on 407 shots in 82 games last season, an average of 4.96 shots per game and 15.0 percent shooting. Matthews might pass more than Pastrnak and thus won’t shoot as much, even if the gap won’t be wide. As a result, Pastrnak will score more than Matthews, though it’ll be close. -- Dan Rosen, senior writer