“I feel like I've settled in pretty well,” Ottavainen said after scoring his first goal in his fifth NHL game. “I've just tried to play through my strengths. Use my skating, be hard to play against. Be physical in our own zone, and just play simple. Make plays when I have the chance, and jump into the play. But try to be reliable.”
When it comes to draft picks, first and second rounders are usually expected to have a decent shot at NHL play. A Hockey Writers study last July of draft data from 1963 through 2024 found that first round selections play at least one NHL game about 89% of the time, second rounders about 68%. But it slows down big after that, with third rounders roughly 53%, fourth rounders 42%, fifth rounders 33%, sixth rounders 31% and seventh rounders 25%.
That’s why the Kraken hitting on their picks in each of the opening five rounds was so unusual.
“Usually, if you hit on two guys in a particular year you can call it a successful draft,” Kraken amateur scouting director Robert Kron said. “That’s not making excuses, it’s just hard to hit on people. I mean, there’s still a long way to go for these guys but to have five guys already making it out of that one draft is satisfying. And it was a COVID draft. So, there were a lot of challenges.”
One of the biggest challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic raged throughout 2020 was major junior and college hockey leagues partially shutting down or canceling seasons outright. There were also travel restrictions in place for crossing borders – particularly between the U.S. and Canada and to certain European nations – not to mention arena attendance limits as well that reduced the amount of in-person scouting that could be done.
“It was a lot less travel and a lot more video,” Kron said, adding the team’s analytics department also helped fill-in several blanks. “It was also knowing players from years prior. And credit to all the scouts and all the people who worked on it. Right now, it’s rewarding to see.”
Kron cautioned that scoring a goal in the NHL doesn’t automatically mean a player will enjoy a sustained career.
“These are early days, right?” he said. “Hopefully they stick for as long as they can.”
The odds grow more daunting when it comes to playing at least 100 NHL games, with first rounders at 70%, second rounders 40%, third rounders 28.2%, fourth rounders 22%, fifth rounders 15%, sixth rounders 15% and seventh rounders 11%.
As for Kraken picks from that 2021 draft, alternate captain Beniers was pretty much considered the consensus No. 2 choice and he immediately validated it by winning the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s top rookie in 2022-23. He’s gone on to play 341 career games and last week notched his 200th career point as he evolves into a strong two-way centerman.
But beyond that is where things got tricky.
Almost no prognostication boards had Kraken selection Evans going any higher than the third round. The Kraken took a lot of criticism at the time for using their 35th overall pick on the defenseman early in the second round, but he’s since gone on to play 186 career games and is averaging 22:36 of ice time per game on the team’s second pairing alongside Brandon Montour.
“With things like gut feeling, some people in the industry believe in it and some don’t,” Kron said. “I’m one of those who does believe in it. Now, sure, you have to have your research down in order to believe in your gut. But I think it is a gut feeling sometimes.”