Analytics with Alison: Dangerous Passes

Earlier this season, we asked Alexander Wennberg if passing was undervalued as part of the game of hockey. "Every goal needs someone to set it up," he demurred with a smile, but he's also not wrong. So many shots (including those that become goals) are preceded by a pass, but while we talk about shot location and the danger involved there, we often don't talk about the danger of a pass. Are different types of passes more likely to lead to goals than others?
Let's dig in.

Back in 2016, author and analyst Ryan Stimson began what is now known as "The Passing Project." It was an expansive research effort in which a team of individuals tracked passes that led to shot attempts (called shot assists), the types of passes involved and the ultimate result. Stimson came to some interesting conclusions. First, that
the more passes that precede a shot, the more likely a shot will become a goal
(as measured by shooting percentage). Second, Stimson's work led to the realization that the
type of pass matters too
. Alan Wells worked with Stimson's data and found that the
kinds of passes that lead to the shots with the best shooting percentage
are "Royal Road" passes (cross slot / seam passes) which had a 15.50% finishing rate, followed by passes that come from behind the net (6.73% shooting percentage).
While the original work began on this topic years ago, the tracking and analysis of passes and their results is
continued by Corey Sznajder
today, and he's
proven out that the same philosophies still hold true about what are the most dangerous types of passes
in the game: and it's still passes that move across the slot and passes that come from below the goal line.
And guess what, in Seattle's 5-2 win over Buffalo, the Kraken used both to get two goals.
Let's go back to Morgan Geekie's opening score.

The setup for Geekie's one timer is a cross zone pass by Wennberg. Watch how it makes the entire defense - including the goaltender - shift laterally forcing them to redirect their defensive effort. That gives Seattle an advantage and that's part of what led to the score.
This is one of the big areas of value Wennberg's game brings. If we look at last season, according to Sznajder's tracking, Wennberg executed 1.98 high danger (cross slot and behind the net) passes. Given that performance, in 5-on-5 play, Sportlogiq ranks the Swede as the most proficient on the Seattle roster when it comes to not just pass completion rate (73.20%) but also specifically in total pass completions (13.80 per 60) and slot pass completions (1.18 per 60).
Who's ranked second among Kraken skaters when it comes to passing? Well, it's Jaden Schwartz, and conveniently, he set up a goal last night with the other type of dangerous pass that we've been talking about - a feed from behind the net.
Schwartz's pass came on Jordan Eberle's first goal of the game.

Full marks to Eberle who got to a dangerous area of the ice and had the incredible finish to score the goal, but Schwartz's pass increases the degree of difficulty for the goaltender to stop the puck because they have to track something happening behind them and change up their position and tracking accordingly.

Again, after Wennberg, it's Schwartz who is completing passes to the dangerous areas. In 5-on-5 play, Sznajder's data had Schwartz executing 1.38 per 60 minutes of play last season and his overall offensive zone pass completions comes in at 6.85 per 60 minutes of play which is just slightly higher than Wennberg's 6.55 per 60 rate. Schwartz's pass completion rate last year was a solid 65.60%.
Traditional NHL stats don't yet tell us information on passing. In the public arena, we have to rely on manual tracking to get this data. But, thanks to tireless efforts by Stimson, Sznajder and others, we know what kind of passes are the most dangerous, and thankfully, the Kraken have players who can execute them and drive results.