DRAFT: An Unconventional Draft

Let's pretend that 2020 is a normal year and it's June, not October.
The NHL Draft is a day away and the Devils are putting the final touches on how they are going to use three first-round picks, and six more that follow a day later.
Even if this was a normal year, there are few things to keep in mind.
First, almost a third of the first-round prospects, including consensus No. 1 Alexis Lafreniere, and a fair number of others in the rounds that follow, are born in 2001, their late birthdays having pushed them into the 2020 Draft.

Does that matter when assessing a prospect? There seems little clear consensus but as Red Line Report chief scout Kyle Woodlief points out, it has a clear effect on the result.
"About half of those late birthdays would not have been picked in their first round if they were eligible last year," said Woodlief, who has operated his independent scouting newsletter for more than two decades. "Some guys, like Lafreniere, of course, it just made them wait a year…but others I'm not sure. I know I wouldn't have rated about half the guys this year (in the first round)."
Ottawa 67's GM James Boyd, who will have two of his players who are both 2001-born in Jack Quinn and Marco Rossi taken in the top 10 on Tuesday night, plays down late birthdays and their effect on the Draft.
"I think with guys like Marco and Jack, being born later, they've always had to prove themselves and who that they belong," said Richmond, back in the winter before the world changed.
"I see it as a positive, with my guys at least."
The second conventional aspect of this Draft: the sheer number of forwards who are available at the top end versus defensemen.
Two years ago, when the Devils took Ty Smith with their first pick, it was the opposite. The relative lack of rearguards this year means a player of Smith's ilk will go much higher this year than the 17th overall selection that the Devils nabbed him with in 2018. That is not to suggest that there aren't quality D available. Jake Sanderson is a phenomenal talent and the biggest riser in the Draft. If he's available at No. 7 then the Devils could take him. It's just that the evaluation process for defensemen is more conventional and straightforward.
But evaluating forwards has been especially exhausting with three extra months tacked on. The extra time has also provided an extra opportunity for certain players to make an impression.
Chicoutimi Sagueneens forward Hendrix Lapierre was beset by injuries last season and played just 19 games and was not himself for much of that time. The extra time has not only given Lapierre time to heal from concussion issues but it's also provided him a chance to show he's unaffected on the ice, registering five points in two games, including a pair of goals.
To that end, do QMJHL forwards Marvik Bourque, Dawson Mercer, and defensemen Justin Barron (injured), Jeremie Poirier and William Villeneuve, who all join Lapierre as potential first-rounders, benefit from the extra exposure? Put another way, did NHL clubs and their medical staffs have a better opportunity to assess the medical fitness of Lapierre and Barron, who is still out, that they otherwise wouldn't have had in June?
Thousands of miles away and in goal, Russian Yaroslav Askarov has looked especially good in the early KHL season, after a year where he struggled. The development of goalies has always tended to tamp down their Draft status - Mackenzie Blackwood was a second-round pick but had first-round talent - it's especially complicated for Askarov given how he has apparently cast off some poor play from 2019-20.
The QMJHL opened training camp/exhibition season about a month ago, roughly the same time that the European leagues got going. Anecdotal reports coming from across the pond seem to suggest that many top prospects look good, being slightly older and having had another off-season of training under their belt.
Conversely, none of the U.S. college, WHL/OHL or USHL loops are playing right now. Imagine yourself trying to assess a European prospect, or one in the QMJHL, who is now playing versus other who are not? If a team such as the Devils have a group of prospects rated roughly equal, would you select a player from the QMJHL, or in Europe who is playing, rather than one who is not and looking at a foggy start date sometime later this fall or in the new year.
Like so much of 2020, it's all rather bizarre.
To wit, Saginaw Spirit assistant coach Jesse Messier would normally be hard at work at this time of year, with a group that includes NHL prospects Cole Perfetti and Mitchell Smith (Perfetti almost certainly will go in the top 10, Smith later on Wednesday). Instead, Messier is hundreds of miles away in his adopted hometown of Barrie, Ont., playing in his season-ending golf tournament frantically refreshing his phone browser on Wednesday afternoon.
There are other conventional aspects at play this year. The trend of sons of former pros continues with Sanderson, son of longtime NHLer Geoff, sure to be the first selected. Beyond that, Jacob Perrault, son of Yanic, should go later in the first round. There are other examples such as Lukas Reichel, son of Robert, and a new twist: Brendan Brisson, who is the son of agent Pat Brisson. The elder Brisson did not play in the NHL but was a standout junior, once suiting up for former Devils head coach Pat Burns on the Hull Olympiques.
Reichel is one of three Germans who are expected to go in the first 40 or so picks, starting with Tim Stutzle, who could be taken immediately after Lafreniere, and likely no later than No. 3. It's a clear sign of the rise of German hockey, highlighted best by Edmonton Oilers star Leon Draisaitl recently winning the Hart Trophy.