Michele from New York, NY: Is there any idea on the Capitals' plan for Ivan Miroshnichenko? He seems like their most promising prospect in years and having MHL/KHL experience should be good for his development at 19. Is it possible he competes for a roster spot sooner than later or is it expected he's still years away from a spot in the lineup?
My understanding on Miroshnichenko is that he has one year left on his contract in the KHL, so I'm expecting him to remain in Russia and fulfill that obligation next season. I'm guessing the soonest we could see him at a Caps training camp would be in the fall of Sept. 2024, ahead of the 2024-25 season, He will still be just 20 years old at that time, and for anyone to crack an NHL roster at that age is not a given, regardless of talent level. Once he is in North America and beginning his pro career here, his play will determine whether he starts in Washington or needs some seasoning at AHL Hershey.
Looking back at the Caps' first-round, high end Russian forward talent of the last generation or so, Alexander Semin (first round, 13th overall in 2002) was able to play in the NHL at the age of 19 and be reasonably successful, but he lacked maturity at that age and the Caps' organization had not yet fully established and staffed its player development department to its current levels. If a player such as Semin were to come along today, I think he would be better equipped to learn English, to deal with the media and to deal with day-to-day life away from the rink and the game.
Semin spent his age 20 season playing in Russia because of the lockout that wiped out the entire 2004-05 NHL season, and he also spent his age 21 season in Russia while fulfilling a military obligation. When he returned to the U.S. at age 22, he put up 38 goals and 73 points in the NHL at that age.
Semin was a supremely gifted and talented player, and he had an excellent NHL career. But he had his best NHL season at age 25, and he never came within 30 points of that age 25 seasons again. His best three seasons came in the first five years of his career. I've always believed he had Hall of Fame skills, talent and ability, and that both he and the organization bear some of the blame for his career flattening out during what should have been his prime seasons.
Alex Ovechkin was drafted first overall, two years after Semin. Ovechkin is in a league of his own, so not much sense in doing a comparison here. But Ovechkin was 20 years old when he debuted in the League, and he was clearly both physically and emotionally ready for prime time then, and he might have been able to thrive as a teenager in the NHL. The combination of a late birthdate and the aforementioned lockout made that a moot point.
Washington took Evgeny Kuznetsov with the 26th overall pick in the 2010 NHL Draft, and he remained in Russia for the better part of four full seasons after being drafted. When Kuznetsov finally came to North America to start his career in March of 2014, he was just shy of 22 years old, but had five years of KHL experience - playing with and against men as opposed to boys - and clearly did not require any AHL seasoning. Even so, he spent some time on the fourth line and playing left wing before blossoming into a legitimate top six player in his second full season in North America, in 2015-16.
Everyone is different and everyone's environmental circumstances are different, and only time will tell how Miroshnichenko's career will unfold. He is one of the organization's most promising prospects, as you note, and he has obviously been through quite a bit at a young age, dealing with his Hodgkin's lymphoma diagnosis and the aftermath of treatment and recovery. If he is able to thrive in the NHL in his early 20s as in the three previous examples, the Caps will make room on the roster for him. They're very much in need of young, cost-controlled, and dynamic talent.