Hurricanes And Hand Grenades – As they head into the back half of their first lengthy road journey of the season, things don’t get any easier for the Capitals. Coming off losses in Pittsburgh and Tampa, the Caps now go up against a couple of the best clubs in the Eastern Conference at the end of the trip. They’ll take on the Hurricanes in Carolina tonight before going down the coast to face the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers on Thursday in the trip finale.
Entering tonight’s game, the Caps have one win in their last seven games (1-5-1), and they’ve entered the third period of their last four losses all even on the scoreboard. Washington hasn’t scored in the final frame of any of those last four setbacks, and the number “three” has become the crucial one for the Caps once again, as it was back in 2023-24, Spencer Carbery’s first season behind the bench.
When they score three or more goals this season, the Capitals are 6-2-1. When they score two or fewer, they’re 1-5-0. And when allowing three or more goals against, Washington is winless at 0-6-1, and it is 7-1-0 when surrendering two or fewer (s/t Carter Myers).
Carolina comes into this game carrying a four-game winning streak, and the Canes have scored four or more goals in 10 of their 11 victories on the season to date.
“Their whole roster is built on speed,” says Carbery of the Canes. “They all can skate, and that just goes directly in line with how they pressure the puck all over the ice. It’s a five-man pressure in every single zone, and they have a lot of confidence in that, and they play very, very connected. And they can be that aggressive because they have such confidence in their skating ability to be able to recover. Even if you do get them in a vulnerable spot, they are so quick to recover from the other four guys on the ice. They’ve done a good job with it.”
Fix Me – Despite their recent struggles and travails, the Caps’ analytics and underlying numbers remain strong. The Caps are third in the NHL in controlling shot attempts at 5-on-5 at 55.58 percent. They trail only Carolina (57.65 percent) and Colorado (56.28 percent). The Caps’ plus-12 goal differential at 5-on-5 is comparable to both of those teams as well; the Avs lead the League with a gaudy plus-17 and Carolina is plus-11.
Despite playing just 15 games to date – as is the case for Carolina – the Caps have generated 394 raw scoring chances (according to naturalstattrick.com), which ranks third in the NHL behind Colorado (439 in 16 games) and Pittsburgh (406 in 17 games), and just ahead of Carolina (384).
As far as high danger chances, the Caps rank fifth at 164, and all four teams ahead of them have played one or two more games. Washington has also yielded the fewest goals against from high danger chances (seven, tied with the New York Rangers, who have played two more games) and its .905 high danger save percentage is tops in the NHL and the only one that starts with a “nine.”
Their special team index has plummeted to the bottom, and both units are currently a work in progress. But what does a coaching staff do when the analytics remain strong, but the results aren’t satisfactory?
“It’s really challenging,” says Carbery. “Because as you know, in this business there’s not a lot of moral victories, and when you don’t get two points, it really doesn’t matter how it looked; you have an “L” in the column that matters the most.
“That’s the outside world, that’s the standings and such, and it really tests us as coaches to really stay with your process. And over time, things will shift and hopefully pucks will start to go in, and we’ll be rewarded and we’ll get a few bounces, and special teams will flip and even itself out, and our shooting percentage will even itself out. And then you would hope that the wins and the points in the standings column will come.
“But it is trying, because guys want results, and you want to win hockey games. And when you don’t, guys are not happy with the way things are going, staff and players included. So it’ son us as coaches to points out the things that we continue to be strong at 5-on-5, and to reiterate those and continue to do those things, and maybe take them even to another level, and continue to work and be hungry to turn our “tides of luck.” But we’re trying to stay positive as we go through it.”
In The Nets – Logan Thompson gets the net for Washington tonight. Thompson’s impressive streak of nine straight starts of allowing two or fewer goals against finally came to a halt on Saturday night in Tampa when Brandon Hagel’s third-period goal supplied the difference in the Lightning’s 3-2 win over Washington.
Thompson’s 1.61 GAA and his .930 save pct. are both still tops in the NHL among goaltenders with at least five starts on the season to date.
Lifetime in the regular season against Carolina, Thompson is 0-2-0 in two appearances (both starts) with an 8.34 GAA and a .780 save percentage.
For the Canes, we are expecting to see veteran Freddie Andersen in goal tonight. Carolina has been carrying three goaltenders this season, one of a few teams going down that unorthodox path. Although Andersen continues to see the lion’s share of the workload in the crease for Carolina, both Brandon Bussi (4-1-0, 2.60 GAA, .898 save pct.) and Pyotr Kochetkov (2-0-0, 1.51, .938) have displayed better qualitative numbers in the early going. Andersen is 5-3-0 in his eight starts, with a 2.97 GAA and an .892 save pct.
Lifetime against Washington in the regular season, Andersen is 10-4-3 in 17 appearances (all starts) with two shutouts, a 2.58 GAA and .912 save pct.
All Lined Up – Here’s how the Capitals and the Hurricanes might look on Tuesday night in Raleigh:
WASHINGTON
Forwards
8-Ovechkin, 17-Strome, 72-Beauvillier
21-Protas, 24-McMichael, 43-Wilson
29-Lapierre, 34-Sourdif, 9-Leonard
22-Duhaime, 26-Dowd, 53-Frank
Defensemen
42-Fehervary, 74-Carlson
6-Chychrun, 3-Roy
38-Sandin, 47-Chisholm
Goaltenders
48-Thompson
79-Lindgren
Healthy Extras
15-Milano
52-McIlrath
57-van Riemsdyk
Injured/Out
80-Dubois (lower body)
CAROLINA
Forwards
37-Svechnikov, 20-Aho, 24-Jarvis
27-Ehlers, 22-Stankoven, 53-Blake
28-Carrier, 11-Staal, 48-Martinook
71-Hall, 82-Kotkaniemi, 50-Robinson
Defensemen
19-Miller, 26-Walker
21-Nikishin, 4-Gostisbehere
6-Reilly, 64-Nystrom
Goalies
31-Andersen
52-Kochetkov
Healthy Extras
25-Bayreuther
32-Bussi
77-Jankowski
Injured/Out
5-Chatfield (upper body)
62-Legault (arm)
74-Slavin (lower body)
