Cold Part Of Town – The Caps finish up a two-game trip against Central Division opposition tonight when they take on the Wild in St. Paul tonight. Washington is 6-9-2 all time against the Wild on the road, and goals have typically been tough to come by up this way for the Caps.
Washington made its first trip here in 2000, and it was shutout in each of its first two visits, and it scored one goal in its third trip here. By the time the Caps beat the Wild in Minnesota for the first time on March 19, 2015, they were shaking off an 0-6-1 record while being outscored 19-10 in those first seven visits.
Then the Caps promptly reeled off six straight wins here in Minnesota, starting with a 3-2 win on March 19, 2015 and concluding with a 4-3 victory just about two weeks before the onset of the pandemic, on March 1, 2020. Four of their six wins were by the margin of a single goal, but the Caps haven’t won here in more than five years now, going 0-3-1 in their last four visits.
Rebound – The Caps are playing their 33 rd game of the season tonight, and for just the second time in that span, they’re coming off a game in which they didn’t play very well and were on the business end of a drubbing, in this case, a 5-1 loss to the Jets in Winnipeg on Saturday night. The earlier instance was a 7-1 loss on home ice to Ottawa on Oct. 25.
Those two games and a 6-3 loss to the Panthers in Florida on Nov. 13 are the only three losses the Caps have suffered by a margin of as many as three goals, and they were competitive in the Florida game. Only Colorado (one) has suffered fewer losses by as many as three goals.
While it’s rare for the Caps to have a subpar outing, they’ve typically been strong at bouncing back from the occasional bad beat in the Carbery era. They’re determined to put their best foot forward again tonight.
“I think we're not doing – over the last four [games] – a great job of retrieving pucks, I would say that is probably the biggest thing,” says Caps center Dylan Strome. “Like when we dump it in, it seems like we're not getting it back. Whereas their pressure is pretty hard on us; like when they dump it in, it seems like they're getting pucks back, and we're not able to break it out clean.
“And then when we dump it in, it seems like a bunch of teams were – I'm thinking Carolina, and especially Winnipeg – really easy to break out against us, where we couldn't really sustain any [offensive] zone time. Third period against Carolina was obviously a lot better. And then, once we once we establish a couple good forechecks and we get the puck, then it seems like we do get controlled entries, and you can make plays off the rush. So I'd say that's probably the biggest thing.”
Since erupting for five goals at 5-on-5 in a 7-1 win at San Jose on Dec. 3, the Caps have scored only six goals at 5-on-5 in their last four games, going 1-1-2. And yet the Winnipeg game was the first in which they trailed since Nov. 28 against Toronto.
The Caps also lost the services of one of their hottest sticks – rookie winger Ryan Leonard – during that stretch. When Leonard was lost for 3-4 weeks with a shoulder injury sustained on Dec. 5 in Anaheim, he had piled up 10 points in his previous 10 games. Losing Leonard and perhaps expecting things to come as easy as they did in San Jose has also plagued Washington.
“Sometimes the tic-tac-toe doesn’t have three in a row,” opines Caps defenseman John Carlson. “I never question this group’s work ethic, because I feel like we have just a collection of dogs in here that work so hard.
“I think it’s just those little things that will put us in better positions in both zones [offensive and defensive], to have the puck more, and once you have the puck more, and guys are doing a little bit more, then all off a sudden those quick plays, those pops, those very highly skilled plays seem to be there more.
“Sometimes, you haven’t done anything, and you get the puck to a decent position and you’re either squeezing the stick because it’s not going well, or you start questioning your reads. And then when things are going good, you might make some bad plays, but you’re just humming along, on to the next situation hungry for the next chance. Those mindsets are big in this League, and we’ve got to find that again.”
The Mighty Quinn – Minnesota’s deal to acquire defenseman Quinn Hughes was bold, and it carries some risk. But peeking under the hood and examining the analytics, it might make crazy good sense, too.
Since opening night in October, Colorado has been the NHL’s measuring stick this season. The Avs rolled to a strong start and went the entire month of November without suffering a regulation loss. Even now, about a week shy of the NHL’s annual holiday hiatus, the Avs have pulled points in 30 of their first 32 games (23-2-7).
Colorado’s lusty .828 points percentage is further ahead of the next closest team (Dallas, .721) than the distance between any other two of the League’s 32 member clubs from top to bottom (Vancouver, .422).
Most of the teams toward the top have done it conventionally. Colorado ranks second in the NHL in controlling shot attempts at 5-on-5 (55.77 percent). As the top team in the Eastern Conference, Carolina’s .688 points percentage ranks third in the League, and as usual, the Hurricanes are tops in the NHL at controlling 5-on-5 shot attempts (60.97 percent). The Caps, Vegas and Anaheim also find themselves in the League’s top 10 in points percentage while controlling shot attempts at a rate of 50 percent or better.
Minnesota got out to a 3-6-3 start in its first dozen games this season, and though it has certainly righted the ship by going 16-3-2 since the outset of November, the Wild hasn’t getting it done conventionally by any means.
Minnesota’s overall points percentage is currently .652, fifth best in the NHL while its 46.51 percent rate of controlling shot attempts at 5-on-5 is 29th, ahead of only Toronto, Dallas (another outlier) and San Jose.
There is a long way to go, but there are a handful of teams currently in the top 10 in points percentage while being under 50 percent at controlling shot attempts at 5-on-5. What’s somewhat stunning is the degree to which both Minnesota and Dallas are down in the one category while being so high in the other. Typically, over the long haul of 82 games, those numbers tend to meet in the middle somewhere.
What Minnesota has managed to do since the start of November is somewhat mind-boggling. The Wild’s 16-3-2 record over that span is second only to that of Colorado, but Minnesota’s 44.37 percent rate of controlling shot attempts over that span is even worse than its full season rate of 46.51 percent. Despite ranking 30th in the NHL in shot attempts controlled over the last month and a half, the Wild has allowed only 25 goals against at 5-on-5 in those 21 games, fewest in the League over that span.
“I think a couple of things,” says Carbery. “One, I think you’ve got to take out the start and then look at the numbers after that. Because you could tell, even when we saw them at the beginning of the year, the film from that game compared to where the Minnesota Wild is at today is night and day; it's not even the same team. It doesn't look the same at all. So I think part of it is the slow start that they got into. Now they're feeling it, they're confident. It looks like they've got everything dialed in. They have some injuries and that, but everybody's on the same page with how they're playing.
“And then, the easiest thing to point to is they have the best goaltending in the league right now from both guys, and that gives you such confidence as a team. And when you feel like that one chance isn't going to go in, or that two or three chances you're going to get a save there almost every time, it gives you a lot of confidence as a group. So credit to them. They've obviously been on a been on a pretty good heater here since we saw them, and even probably a little bit past that, whenever it was when they turned this thing around, but it's been impressive.”
Enter Hughes. Since debuting in the League with Vancouver in 2018-19, Hughes’ team has controlled shot attempts at a gaudy rate of 59.6 percent, according to Hockey Reference. During that same stretch from 2018-19 to now, Vancouver ranks 24th in controlling shot attempts at 5-on-5, according to NHL.com. Despite playing for a team that was typically not an excellent possession team, Hughes was a possession positive player whenever he was on the ice.
Pairing him with Brock Faber gives the Wild a youthful pairing that is capable of driving play and eating minutes, so it will be interesting to see the effect Hughes’ presence has on Minnesota’s team possession analytics going forward.
“What about when they put [Kirill] Kaprizov, [Joel] Eriksson-Ek and [Matt] Boldy on with them too,” says Carbery. “Did you see that shift? About $50 million right there, starting next season. They’re just great players. There is a reason why they’ve accomplished what they’ve accomplished in this League. I think all five guys – Kaprizov, no – would be at the Olympics.
“They make it really difficult on you, and we just do the best we can with understanding their tendencies and what they do well – how do we neutralize that? You’re never going to eliminate it, but can we make them have an ‘off night’ tonight?”
The last NHL team to accrue a points percentage of at least .675 while controlling 5-on-5 shot attempts at a rate of less than 50 percent was the 2022-23 Vegas Golden Knights (.677 and 48.15 percent), and Vegas went on to win the Stanley Cup that season.
In The Nets – Charlie Lindgren gets the start tonight for the Caps, taking the crease in the NHL rink nearest to where he grew up in Lakeville, Minn. In his last five appearances (four starts), Lindgren is 4-0-0 with a 2.15 GAA and a .912 save pct.
Lindgren will be seeking his first ever win over Minnesota. Lifetime against the Wild, he is 0-4-1 in five starts and appearances, with a 3.26 GAA and an .892 save pct.
Filip Gustavsson gets the net for the Wild tonight. After winning a career high 31 games for the Wild last season, Gustavsson was inked to a five-year, $34 million contract extension two months ago, a deal that kicks in next season. He then got off to a rocky start to the season with a 2-6-1 mark, a 3.37 GAA and an .892 save pct. in his nine October starts.
But since Nov. 1, Gustavsson has kicked it into gear along with the rest of his teammates. He is 8-2-2 in his last dozen starts, with a shutout, a 2.05 GAA and a .923 save pct.
Lifetime against the Capitals, he is 3-2-0 in five appearances, all starts, with a 3.20 GAA and a .906 save pct.
All Down The Line – Here’s how the Capitals and the Wild might look on Tuesday night in St. Paul:
WASHINGTON
Forwards
24-McMichael, 17-Strome, 8-Ovechkin
21-Protas, 34-Sourdif, 43-Wilson
72-Beauvillier, 26-Dowd, 53-Frank
22-Duhaime, 29-Lapierre, 15-Milano
Defensemen
42-Fehervary, 74-Carlson
6-Chychrun, 3-Roy
38-Sandin, 57-van Riemsdyk
Goaltenders
79-Lindgren
48-Thompson
Healthy Extras
47-Chisholm
52-McIlrath
87-Trineyev
Injured/Out
9-Leonard (upper body)
80-Dubois (lower body)
MINNESOTA
Forwards
97-Kaprizov, 14-Eriksson-Ek, 12-Boldy
13-Trenin, 22-Yurov, 91-Tarasenko
17-Foligno, 38-Hartman, 16-Aube-Kubel
39-Jones, 78-Sturm, 19-Pitlick
Defensemen
43-Hughes, 7-Faber
48-Hunt, 46-Spurgeon
26-Kiersted, 55-Jircek
Goalies
32-Gustavsson
30-Wallstedt
Healthy Extras
37-Haight
Injured/Out
5-Middleton (undisclosed)
18-Hinostroza (undisclosed)
24-Bogosian (lower body)
25-Brodin (undisclosed)
36-Zuccarello (undisclosed)
90-Johansson (lower body)
