NHL EDGE stats 2026-27 season outlook for St. Louis Blues

As part of NHL.com's 32 in 32 series, we will identify key NHL EDGE stats for each team to preview the 2026-27 season. Today, we look at three advanced metrics trends surrounding the St. Louis Blues:

1. Joel Hofer's efficiency last season

Though the Blues missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season, their 35 standings points and .761 points percentage from March 1 to the end of the regular season (16-4-3) led the NHL. During that 23-game span, goalie Joel Hofer was tied for the most wins (11) and shutouts (two) in the NHL, with the second-best save percentage (.932; minimum 10 games) behind Scott Wedgewood (.946). Hofer finished the season second in the NHL with six shutouts (Ilya Sorokin, seven), the fifth-best save percentage in the League (.910; minimum 40 games) and emerged as the top goalie option, ahead of longtime starter and 2019 Stanley Cup champion Jordan Binnington.

Hofer's breakout season was backed by impressive advanced metrics, particularly his efficiency against perimeter shots on goal. He was tied for fourth in long-range save percentage (.984), ranked seventh in long-range saves (311) and tied for ninth in mid-range save percentage (.906). He also ranked sixth in quality starts percentage (60.5 percent; starts with greater than .900 save percentage) among goalies who started at least 40 games last season, indicating he could have a higher gear to reach with a full-time starting role this season or down the road.

2.  Underlying metrics for Mason McTavish, Connor McMichael

McTavish, acquired in a trade with the Anaheim Ducks on June 26, has breakout potential considering he's 23 years old and has had some strong underlying shot metrics. Last season he ranked in the 91st percentile among forwards in 70-80 mph shot attempts (70) and in the 88th percentile in 80-90 mph shot attempts (25). In 2024-25, McTavish ranked in the 91st percentile among forwards in mid-range shots on goal (70) and in the 86th percentile in high-danger shots on goal (61).

Another offseason addition, forward Connor McMichael, acquired from the Washington Capitals as part of the return for forward Jordan Kyrou on June 23, brings plenty of versatility to an already deep top-nine forward group. McMichael ranked in the 91st percentile in 20-plus mph speed bursts (174) last season, in the 89th percentile in hardest shot (91.40 mph) and in the 85th percentile in max skating speed (23.01 mph). He could see a goal-scoring uptick with his new team considering he ranked in the 87th percentile in high-danger shots on goal (63) but his 17.5 percent high-danger shooting percentage was below the NHL forward average (19.6 percent).

3. Blues’ mid-range prowess

St. Louis was 10th in average shot speed last season (58.72 mph), allowing its mid-range offense to thrive. The Blues were among the leaders in mid-range goals (94; tied for third) and mid-range shots on goal (701; sixth). Forward Dylan Holloway, who was a standout among forwards in hardest shot (93.05 mph; 92nd percentile) and average shot speed (59.02 mph; 89th percentile) last season, was among the leaders in mid-range goals (14; 97th percentile among NHL forwards).

Rookie standout Jimmy Snuggerud, who found chemistry with Holloway and Robert Thomas on the top line down the stretch last season, followed a similar trend in those key advanced shot metrics. Snuggerud ranked highly among forwards in hardest shot (95.56 mph; 97th percentile) and average shot speed (59.96 mph; 90th percentile), translating to his strong totals in mid-range shots on goal (74; 93rd percentile) and mid-range goals (eight; 86th percentile).

Kyrou ranked highly among forwards in mid-range shots on goal (82; 95th percentile) and mid-range goals (nine; 89th percentile) last season; he also was among the League's mid-range goal leaders in 2024-25 (16; tied for seventh). But Kyrou's departure opens a spot in St. Louis' top-six forward group for an offseason addition like McTavish or McMichael, or Dalibor Dvorsky, 21, the No. 10 pick in the 2023 NHL Draft. Despite a limited role as a rookie last season, five of Dvorsky's 12 goals came on the power play, he ranked in the 83rd percentile among forwards in hardest shot (89.81 mph), and four of his goals came from mid-range zones (65th percentile).

Another up-and-coming young player, defenseman Philip Broberg, had a strong EDGE stats profile last season and has a higher ceiling for the seasons ahead. The 25-year-old was among the defenseman leaders in max skating speed (23.46 mph; 98th percentile), 20-plus mph speed bursts (158; 98th percentile) and, fitting into his team's offense, ranked highly at his position in mid-range shots on goal (35; 93rd percentile). With 26-and-younger players in Holloway, Snuggerud, Dvorsky, Broberg and Hofer blossoming across the lineup, the Blues are a potential sleeper team that could contend for a Western Conference wild-card spot.