An Ounce Of Prevention Equals A Pound Of Kraken Wins

An amped-up Kraken goalie Joey Daccord was buzzing aplenty postgame early in the week about his latest thwarted attempt to score during a victory over the Chicago Blackhawks.

“Shooters shoot,” Daccord quipped.

Alas, his attempt to fire the puck down the ice into an empty Chicago net vacated for an extra attacker was quashed by a late-emerging Blackhawks defender. For all his offensive enthusiasm, Daccord has been exactly as successful at scoring as practically every other netminder that’s donned a mask and pads in a century-plus of NHL action.

Daccord’s value has and will always be goal prevention. It’s a timely reminder when everybody -- even goalies apparently – often gets most excited about scoring goals that keeping pucks out of the net is just as important. For this season’s Kraken, challenging for first place one month in, goal prevention has been the most important aspect of a 6-3-4 start and it’s not particularly close.

The question is whether that goal prevention, forged by Daccord and a suffocating defensive system implemented by head coach Lane Lambert, can withstand a sputtering offense barely generating two or three goals per game. Well, the answer is yes, the way the Kraken are squeaking out wins through defense-first is indeed sustainable and preferable to the reverse of riding an offensive hot streak to overcome porous defenders.

Of course, there are caveats. The offense will likely need to uptick at least slightly, which we’ll get into shortly. But the Kraken appear to have the hard part down so long as yielding a half-dozen goals to San Jose remains the exception.

Seriously, what the Kraken have done, at least until Wednesday night’s debacle against San Jose, is impressive. It’s tough to fathom losing only three times in regulation the first 13 games while ranking 28^th out of 32 teams offensively at just 2.62 goals per contest.

That offensive output is largely from the Kraken also ranking dead last in shots per game at 24.3. As noted offensive theorist Daccord opined, shooters do indeed shoot. And Kraken shooters must start shooting more and finding the back of the net at a better rate than Daccord.

Still, the Kraken are winning, or, at least securing points most games because their defense is opposite of what the offense has been.

Even with the Sharks scoring on them six times, the Kraken as of Thursday were still a solid 12^th in goals allowed per game at 2.92.

Now, you might correctly suggest the math doesn’t quite add up. That a team scoring only 2.62 goals and allowing 2.92 should not be securing victories and overtime loss points most of the time. However, there’s an important sequencing aspect to how those averages were attained.

Simply put, the Kraken have allowed 16 of their 39 total goals against in just three games, including the other night’s San Jose affair. That means they’ve allowed only 23 goals in their 10 other contests. That’s 2.3 goals yielded nightly in those games and yes, the math laws tell us that’s low enough to win or tie in regulation even if your offense is scoring a mere 2.62 goals per contest

Unlike the defense, the Kraken offense has not had similar outliers skewing the average. They’ve very much been what that 2.62 average suggests offensively, scoring three goals or fewer in 11 of 13 games and just four apiece in the other two.

Throw all that knowledge together and you surmise the Kraken cannot allow more than three goals in regulation if hoping to win. And no more than two goals in regulation if wanting to avoid overtime.

For the most part, they’ve pulled that off. They’ve allowed three goals or fewer in regulation in nine games and gone 6-0-3. And they’ve held opponents to two goals or fewer in regulation in seven games, going 6-0-1 that span.

Allowing more than three goals in regulation is where the problems start. They are 0-3-1 in such games.

So, yeah, it’s truly a Damascus steel straight razor the Kraken are cutting things close with on the offense-defense math differential. But so far, they’re cutting it. And indications are they can keep on doing so.

After all, they aren’t going to suddenly un-learn how to play defense.

It’s one thing to ride a goal scoring hot streak courtesy of a high shooting percentage prone to random swings of luck. Quite another to consistently hold opponents off the scoreboard via a defensive system funneling higher grade chances away from the net, limiting offensive zone time by opponents and relying on Daccord to do his thing.

“I think we’ve done a pretty good job so far,” Lambert said this week of the consistency shown by the Kraken in executing the finer details of their defensive structure. “But again, it’s a progression and we’ve got to continue to improve on certain areas and that’s what we’ll do. But that’s the consistency level that we need.”

Sure, you’d like to win some games without a cardiac monitor going off. The Kraken have shown they can secure standings points consistently by allowing three goals or fewer most nights. What would be even better is if they didn’t have to keep doing it every night the remaining five months of the season.

They could use some offensive help. They just got some with Kaapo Kakko’s return and should have more with Jared McCann, Ryker Evans and Freddy Gaudreau hopefully back from injury this month. Even them getting the Kraken a fraction closer to 3.0 goals per night would buy the defense some needed margin for error.

It’s not that high a bar to clear. The Kraken last season averaged 2.99 goals per game. Their playoff season in 2022-23 they averaged a whopping 3.52 goals. It’s the lesser of the two we’re suggesting they replicate. Again, not a huge ask once all injuries return. Plus, Mason Marchment and Eeli Tolvanen combined for 45 goals last season and have just one between them right now. You know that won’t last.

The injury returns should also play a part in the defense keeping this up. Evans and Gaudreau would bolster the back end and “bottom-six” forward lines defensively. Gaudreau would help the penalty kill as well.

The point is: The defensive success has been systematically ingrained and isn’t really about any luck that could fluctuate. We know this because of how the Kraken maintained their defensive prowess despite battling through significant injuries and absences.

Daccord also has upward room to roam. He’s already started 11 of 13 games and while looking fantastic in most has had outliers skewing his numbers.

Realistically, he can’t keep starting 85% of games. And with more upcoming rest now that the tough early part of the schedule is done, you’d expect his .900 save percentage to start surpassing his career average of .906 and even the .916 from his first full year as a starter two seasons ago. Same with his goals saved above expected numbers, now in the negative when they are typically on the positive side.

So, there’s every reason to believe the Kraken keep this up.

The defense already looks poised to carry the load these next five months the way it did the first. And the load itself shouldn’t remain as heavy as long as collectively healthier Kraken shooters not named Daccord start shooting and hitting targets a bit more frequently.