At The Cross Roads – As they reach the end of their season-long six-game road trip tonight in Detroit, the Capitals find themselves at a bit of a crossroad in their season. Tonight’s game against the Red Wings is also the first of five they have remaining to be played prior to the NHL’s three-week pause for the Olympic break, and it’s one of just 28 games remaining in their season.
The NHL trade deadline falls on March 6 this season, and Washington has only nine games between now and then, and these next five will carry most of the weight with the front office as far as the team’s approach to the trade deadline, and whether to be a buyer or a seller.
Historically, the Caps have fared quite well on lengthy road trips over the years, so their 1-3-1 performance on the current one thus far. This is just the fifth time in the Alex Ovechkin era the Caps have had a continuous six-game road trip, and their aggregate record on the first four of those journeys is 15-8-1, with the worst of the four being a 3-3-0 performance in 2018-19.
The last time the Caps fared so poorly across a stretch of six straight road games was early in the ill-fated 2003-04 campaign when they went 0-5-1 from Oct. 13-25, but those six games were part of two journeys with some home time tucked in between. That early season skid ultimately led to a full-on fire sale and resulted in the Caps winning the lottery and landing Ovechkin in the 2004 NHL Entry Draft less than a year later.
Tonight, they’re simply looking to pull some standings points as they try to remain viable in the playoff chase in these last five games before the break, and they’re aiming to rebound from an uncharacteristically poor performance on Tuesday in Seattle in a 5-1 setback.
“I think the mindset is just to find a way to get two points,” says Caps center Dylan Strome. “It obviously didn’t look very pretty in Seattle. We did some good things against Edmonton, but ultimately didn’t get two points. So I think whatever we do tonight, just find a way to get those two huge points on the board. That’s what we’re looking for tonight.”
“I expect our group to embrace it and lay it on the line and see our best effort tonight,” says Caps coach Spencer Carbery. That’s what we’re expecting.”
The Caps dropped both ends of a home-and-home set of back-to-backs with the Wings just over a month ago, pulling a point in an overtime loss in the second of those games, played here in Motown on Dec. 21.
Tonight, the Caps won’t have Logan Thompson available to them; he is day-to-day with an upper body injury. Charlie Lindgren will start, and the Caps have summoned goaltender Clay Stevenson from AHL Hershey to suit up as Lindgren’s backup tonight.
Two years ago ,when the Caps were doggedly vying with a raft of other teams for the last remaining playoff berth in the Eastern Conference, Lindgren turned in a stellar start here, making 42 saves in a 2-1 Washington win on April 9, 2024. Patrick Kane spoiled Lindgren’s shutout bid with two seconds left in the third period that night.
“That one pops in; that one is definitely one that comes to mind,” says Lindgren, asked whether past performances in certain buildings stand out to him. “I look back at that one, that’s probably one of my best NHL games of all time. And especially with where we were at in the season at that point, that was a massive game because I think there were less than 10 games left in the season at that point and Detroit was one of the teams we were fighting with. That one certainly sticks out; it was a memorable one.”
Carbery has recently noted on a couple of occasions that the Caps need to get back to winning the way they did two seasons ago when they defended their way into the postseason by winning a bunch of low-scoring tight checking games over the final third of the season.
“Definitely the positive vibes and the goaltending performance,” says Carbery of his memories of that game. “But ideally, you don't want to put Chucky in as many spots as we as we did in that game. Now, credit to him. He bailed the fellas out and made some incredible saves to preserve that win. I remember that game very vividly, but I think it's funny. You don't want to have to rely on that.
“And I think you could point to a lot of different things in what's changed with our group, what's gone on at the beginning of the year to now, at this point, and I think one of the main takeaways is you had Logan Thompson playing at an insane level that’s just not sustainable and you can’t rely on that.
“And so that covers up a lot of underlying issues when you're walking away from a lot of games with two points where maybe you get significantly outchanced, and we don't want to rely on that recipe to need that now. Is that nice sometimes? No doubt, for your goalie to bail you out and “steal” you a game, but we want to try to make sure we're making Chucky's life as easy as possible tonight and doing a good job in front of him.”
Tale Of A Heartache – Twenty-eight games into this season, the Capitals owned a 17-9-2 record, the fourth best mark in the League to that point of the season. Averaging 3.50 goals per game, the Caps ranked second in the NHL, and their yield of 2.46 goals against per game was also second best in the circuit at the time.
Washington led the NHL with just 39 goals against at 5-on-5, and its total of 71 goals scored at 5-on-5 was second best in the League. The Caps owned an impressive plus-32 goal differential at 5-on-5, a figure exceeded only by that of Colorado (plus-38).
The Capitals controlled 53.41 percent of all shot attempts at 5-on-5, the fourth best rate in the League. Washington was fifth in the League with a rate of 55.23 percent of all high danger scoring chances at 5-on-5.
In those 28 contests, the Caps scored four or more goals on 13 occasions, and they yielded as many as four goals against in seven of those games. Washington’s overall goal differential was plus-27, tops in the Eastern Conference and second in the NHL.
Twenty-six games down the road from that juncture of the season, the Caps look like a completely different team. A peek under the hood shows a startling reversal of fortune in virtually every aspect of the game.
Washington is 8-13-5 in those 26 games, and its .404 points percentage over that span is tied with Chicago for 29th in the NHL, ahead of only the New York Rangers (.375) and Vancouver (.308), teams that have defeated the Caps during that span.
Over those last 26 contests, the Caps are scoring at a rate of 2.81 goals per game, 24th in the League and down nearly three-quarters of a goal a game from their early season rate. At the other end of the ice, the Caps are yielding an average of 3.46 goals per game, 27th in the League and up exactly a goal a game from the early season rate.
At 5-on-5, the Capitals have scored 48 goals (tied with San Jose for 20th), and they’ve yielded 58, (tied with the Rangers for 26th) for a goal differential of minus-10, and a massive 48-goal swing from their early season performance.
Washington has controlled just 47.97 percent of all 5-on-5 shot attempts across its last 26 contests, ranking 22nd in the League. The Caps have had 49.63 percent of all high danger scoring chances, 16th in the NHL.
Over the last 26 games, the Caps have yielded four or more goals against in exactly half of them, 13 contests. They’ve managed to score four or more goals themselves just six times.
Washington also hasn’t managed consecutive victories at any point across those 26 games. Unless it wins its next two games – Thursday in Detroit and Saturday at home against Carolina – that streak will stretch to 28 games, matching the longest streak of its kind in the Alex Ovechkin era. In the back half of Ovechkin’s sophomore season of 2006-07, the Capitals went 28 games without stringing together consecutive victories from Jan. 11-March 15, 2007. The Caps’ 5-17-6 mark and their average of 3.71 goals against per game were both the worst in what was a 30-team circuit in those days.
“I think especially in those first 28 games, we were playing way more as a team, way more connected defensively, and able to get out of our zone really well,” says Strome. “And I feel like usually you have stretches in the season where you’re great at 5-on-5, and the other stretches that you're not, your special teams can make up for that. And right now, this season, our special teams hasn't been able to do that.
“So it's almost impossible to keep up that 5-on-5 pace the whole season, but you’ve got to rely on your special teams. And I think we were at the point where our special teams are what they are, and our 5-on-5 play has to get back to those first 28 games. I think we're a team that's able to do that. We're able to find ways to compete and to win tight checking games, and we have to do that. So that's what our mindset is going to be here for the last [28] games.”
In The Nets – Lindgren’s most recent start was in a 6-5 overtime loss to the Oilers in Edmonton on Saturday night. He is 6-3-2 in his last 12 appearances (11 starts) with a 3.33 GAA and an .888 save pct.
Lifetime against Detroit, he is 5-3-1 in nine appearances – all starts – with a 3.28 GAA and an .888 save pct.
For Detroit, we are expecting to see John Gibson between the pipes, gunning for his 22nd win of the season in his first season with the Wings. The Red Wings have been one of the League’s hottest teams since Dec. 1, and Gibson is one of the main reasons for the heat. He is 17-3-0 in his 20 starts over that span, with three shutouts, a 2.00 GAA and a .930 save pct. Gibson leads the NHL in wins and is second in shutouts and save pct. across that span, and third in GAA.
Lifetime against the Caps, he is 4-6-4 with a shutout, a 2.92 GAA and a .906 save pct. in 15 appearances, all starts.
All Down The Line – Here’s how the Caps and the Red Wings might look on Thursday night in Detroit:
WASHINGTON
Forwards
8-Ovechkin, 26-Dowd, 53-Frank
24-McMichael, 17-Strome, 9-Leonard
21-Protas, 34-Sourdif, 43-Wilson
22-Duhaime, 29-Lapierre, 72-Beauvillier
Defensemen
6-Chychrun, 74-Carlson
42-Fehervary, 38-Sandin
47-Chisholm, 52-McIlrath
Goaltenders
79-Lindgren
33-Stevenson
Healthy Extras
15-Milano
57-van Riemsdyk
Injured/Out
3-Roy (lower body)
48-Thompson (upper body)
80-Dubois (abdomen)
DETROIT
Forwards
92-Kasper, 71-Larkin, 23-Raymond
93-DeBrincat, 17-Copp, 88-Kane
58-Finnie, 37-Compher, 21-van Riemsdyk
85-Soderblom, 27-Rasmussen, 22-Appleton
Defensemen
20-Johansson, 53-Seider
8-Chiarot, 44-Sandin-Pellikka
56-Gustafsson, 25-Bernard-Docker,
Goalies
36-Gibson
39-Talbot
Healthy Extras
52-Hamonic
Injured/Out
77-Edvinsson (lower body)
