Slipping – Today against the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Caps close out the home portion of their 2024-25 schedule. The Caps have two remaining road games after today – Tuesday against the Islanders and Thursday in Pittsburgh.
Today’s game is an absolute must-win for the Blue Jackets; they have to have two points to keep their already faint playoff hopes flickering into tomorrow. But as Caps coach Spencer Carbery admits, this one is huge for Washington, too.
“We’re just looking at one game right now,” says Carbery. “One game is all that matters tonight, and playing really well and playing a hard, playoff-style game tonight at home.”
That would be a welcome change from Washington’s recent performances.
Seventy games into the 2024-25 season, the Capitals owned the NHL’s best point percentage (.729, from a 47-15-8 record), and they ranked first in the NHL with 3.66 goals per game and third in goals against per game at 2.54, just a hair behind second-place Los Angeles (2.53).
Three weeks later, the picture isn’t as rosy.
Going into their last dozen games of the season, the Caps knew it wasn’t going to be a picnic. With no homestands longer than one game on their schedule, they knew they’d be traveling for every game – which can feel like one long, long road trip – and they knew the back half of those dozen games were going to be jammed full of games against divisional opponents. The Caps also finish the season with two separate sets of five games in eight nights – they’re in the second of those stretches now – but they also had a gracious three-day respite from the rigors of the rink tucked between those two rugged patches.
Now, with only the last three of those dozen games remaining, the Caps are 3-5-1 over the first nine, and it’s looked worse than that at times. They’ve yielded three or more goals against in all nine games – and in 10 straight games overall – and they’ve scored fewer than three goals in five of the nine.
In the season’s first 70 games, the Caps played with the lead for 1,714 minutes and 55 seconds – roughly 24.5 minutes per game – second only to Winnipeg (1,720:12) to that point of the season. The Caps never trailed by more than three goals at any point of those first 70 games, either.
In the nine games since, Washington ranks 29th in the League in lead time at 104 minutes and 36 seconds, which is slightly under nine minutes per game. They’ve also trailed by four or more goals twice in those nine games, losing 5-1 in Carolina on April 2 and falling 7-0 in Columbus 10 days later, both against divisional foes.
Over the last nine games, their .389 point percentage is tied with the Rangers for 27th, and none of the teams beneath Washington and New York on that list – the Islanders, Boston, Nashville and San Jose – are going to the playoffs.
With 2.67 goals per game, the Caps are tied for 26th with San Jose. With 4.56 goals against – a figure inflated by seven Columbus goals on Saturday – the Caps rank 31st, ahead of only San Jose (5.00).
That’s a fair amount of slippage in a short amount of time, with three games between now and the start of the postseason.
“Goals against defensively, without a doubt,” says Carbery when asked which areas are currently most in need of shoring up. “Now, there’s a lot of things that play into that, because there’s some puck management stuff, there’s some wall play stuff, there’s some execution offensively that’s ending up coming the other way, which leads to odd man rushes [against]. There’s some reads stuff.
“But certainly the easy answer to that is, defensively we’re just giving up way too much. Does goaltending play a factor in that? It absolutely does; I’m not absolving that point from what we’ve been through. But as you go through dips in the season, goaltending has bailed us out on numerous stretches of the year. And now it’s maybe come back down a little bit. You have to be able to grind your way through those situations, and right now, we’re not. We’re giving up way too much defensively.”
And while defense and goals against are absolutely a concern, so is the team’s offense at even strength. The Caps’ power play is clicking at a gaudy 36.4 percent rate in the last nine games, second best in the League over that span. But Washington has netted only 13 goals at 5-on-5 in its last nine games; only injury-riddled Edmonton (12) has fewer over that span.
“I think a little bit of it goes hand in hand,” says Carbery. “Are we generating enough chances to win a game? Okay, so [Saturday], Jet Greaves plays excellent, makes some big saves [in a 7-0 CBJ win]. Could we have scored three in that game? For sure, we could have. Defensively though, we’re spending too much time in the defensive zone. We're giving up too many transition chances, which are leading to [defensive] zone time.
“But all of that stuff – I think – is connected for us, being able to hold on to the puck more, being able to look after it when we get it, and not force plays into the middle, wall play, being able to exit.”
As is typically the case, three is the magic number in the NHL. When they score three or more goals this season, the Caps are 47-2-6 in 2024-25. When they’re limited to two or fewer goals, they’re 3-18-3.
On the flipside, when Washington permits fewer than three goals in a game, it owns a 32-2-1 record. When they yield three or more goals against, the Caps are a much more ordinary 18-18-8 this season.
“There's a lot of things in play right now,” says Carbery. “At the end of the day, I'm worried about one game. And tonight is a massive hockey game for our team at home, and we're just focused on one game. I could care less about the New York Islanders and Pittsburgh, no disrespect to them.
“Tonight is our last home game of the season against a team that's fighting for their lives and is playing like this is their season. This, for us, is a critical hockey game for our team.”
‘Tis The Season – Early Sunday afternoon, the Caps announced they’ve loaned forward Terik Parascak to AHL Hershey. Parascak was Washington’s first-round choice (17th overall) in the 2024 NHL Draft. Parascak totaled 28 goals and 54 assists for 82 points in 59 games for the WHL Prince George Cougars this season, and he added four goals and six assists for 10 points in seven games before the Cougars fell to Portland in the first round.
Parascak could make his pro debut later this week; Hershey has three home games remaining on its regular season slate before the 2025 Calder Cup playoffs get underway and the two-time defending champion Bears take aim at a threepeat.
Already this spring, a trio of recently drafted prospect blueliners have dipped their toes into the professional waters with Hershey.
Defenseman David Gucciardi was Washington’s seventh-round pick (213th overall) in the 2022 NHL Draft. Gucciardi finished up his collegiate career at Michigan State this season, and he signed his entry level deal with the Caps on March 31. That deal kicks in next season, so Gucciardi also signed an ATO with Hershey. He debuted with a bang with the Bears on April 5, scoring his first pro goal in the first period of his first game, a 3-2 overtime win over Hartford.
Blueliner Ryan Chesley – Washington’s second-round pick (37th overall) in the 2022 NHL Draft – also signed an ATO with Hershey; he is expected to sign an entry level deal with the Caps during the offseason. A night after Gucciardi debuted with a goal, Chesley did the same, scoring early in the third period – also against Hartford – to tie the game at 1-1, a game in which the Bears eventually prevailed 2-1.
Finally, defenseman Leon Muggli made his Hershey debut on Saturday in a 5-1 loss at Lehigh Valley. Muggli was the Caps’ second-round pick (52nd overall) in the 2024 NHL Draft.
In The Nets – Charlie Lindgren is back in goal today for the Capitals, seeking his 20th victory of the season and starting for the fifth time in the team’s last seven games. Lindgren has earned each of Washington’s three victories in its last nine games; he won in Boston on April 1 and prevailed over Chicago on April 4 and Carolina on April 10 here in the District.
Lifetime against the Blue Jackets, Lindgren is 5-1-2 in eight appearances – all starts – with a 2.94 GAA and a .909 save pct.
Fresh off authoring the first shutout of his NHL career on Saturday against Washington, Jet Greaves gets the net again for the Jackets in a must-win game for Columbus today. He has started twice against Washington this season – both times in Columbus – falling 2-1 in overtime on Dec. 12 and blanking the Caps 7-0 on 22 shots Saturday.
Greaves is 1-0-1 lifetime against the Caps, with a 0.98 GAA and a .966 save pct. He has stopped 57 of 59 shots against Washington, and the only man to beat him – twice – is Aliaksei Protas, currently sidelined on a week-to-week basis with a lower body injury.
All Lined Up – Here’s how we believe the Capitals and the Blue Jackets might look on Sunday evening in the District:
WASHINGTON
Forwards
8-Ovechkin, 17-Strome, 72-Beauvillier
24-McMichael, 80-Dubois, 43-Wilson
88-Mangiapane, 20-Eller, 9-Leonard
22-Duhaime, 26-Dowd, 16-Raddysh
Defensemen
6-Chychrun, 57-van Riemsdyk
38-Sandin, 52-McIlrath
42-Fehervary, 3-Roy
Goaltenders
79-Lindgren
31-Shepard
Extras
53-Frank
74-Carlson
Out/Injured
15-Milano (upper body)
19-Backstrom (hip)
21-Protas (lower body)
48-Thompson (upper body)
77-Oshie (back)
COLUMBUS
Forwards
38-Jenner, 23-Monahan, 86-Marchenko
21-van Riemsdyk, 19-Fantilli, 91-Johnson
10-Voronkov, 4-Sillinger, 24-Olivier
27-Aston-Reeese, 7-Kuraly, 17-Danforth
Defensemen
8-Werenski, 15-Fabbro
5-Mateychuk, 9-Provorov
22-Harris, 44-Gudbranson
Goaltenders
73-Greaves
40-Tarasov
Extras
2-Christiansen
3-J. Johnson
11-Kunin
29-Williams
36-Fischer
59-Chinakov
78-Severson
Out/Injured
62-Labanc (upper body)
90-Merzlikins (undisclosed)
