Start Me Up – The Utah Hockey Club is in town today to take on the Capitals in Washington’s traditional Super Sunday home game. It’s one of just two NHL games on the slate today – both in the early afternoon – as the League hits the pause button for the better part of two weeks in order to conduct the 4 Nations Face-Off.
Both sides will be looking to go into the break on a high note, and the Caps will be seeking to remain near the top of the League’s standings; they can tie Winnipeg’s League-leading total of 81 points with a victory here today.
In the 20 games they’ve played since the NHL’s annual three-day holiday hiatus in December, the Caps have rolled up an impressive 13-2-5 mark (.775 points pct.), tops in the League over that span. But to their credit, the Caps are typically not content to rest on their laurels, which are mostly meaningless in midseason anyway.
Washington is also aware that the franchise formerly known as the Arizona Coyotes has had its number in recent seasons; the Caps won only one of their last five home games (1-3-1) against the Desert Dogs.
“I feel like it's the type of team that gives us the most issues from a 5-on-5, all-three-zone standpoint, and you've seen it,” says Caps coach Spencer Carbery. “The game we played against them in their building [on Nov. 18] wasn't a great depiction of the two teams, because we got up so early in that game, and there were special teams early. I think we had a 5-on-3 [against us], killed it off, and then we get a few and sort of put the game out of reach. You can't take much when the score gets to the point it did.
“Last year, we felt it the big time in our building and in their building. And you can see the way that they play and the skill through their lineup, and the skating ability, and their puck play ability to make plays off entry, to keep pucks alive. We're going to have our work cut out for us defensively tonight, checking and being really good in that area, against their speed and skill throughout their lineup.”
The Caps enter Sunday’s game with a 14-game home point streak (10-0-4). The last home game in which they did not earn a point was more than two months ago, a 3-2 loss to the New Jersey Devils on Nov. 23.
“The focus right now is the last couple of games, there has been a period off,” says Caps right wing Tom Wilson. “I think our first periods need to be better, and I think if we come out strong [today] and we start well, that will set us up for success for the rest of the game. You always want to go out on the right foot whenever you get a break and you’re flying to different parts of the world, it’s always better having a win under your belt. I think if we come out strong and take it to them right away, that’ll be the best recipe for success for us and we can just keep rolling, and hopefully get it done.”
Carbery concurs.
“I would agree with him that the start – the first period – is going to be a huge portion of this hockey game and how that looks,” says the Caps bench boss. “And if it looks clean from our standpoint, and we're checking well, and we've got numbers above, and we're not giving them open opportunities, or handing them odd man rushes, extra pucks in the offensive zone; if we're not doing that, I think we're going to be happy with the first and know that we're on tonight, if guys are being diligent and detailed with what we need to do, checking wise. And that'll be a good sign, even if, even if the score is 0-0, or 1-1, or whatever it might be. That's what I'll be looking for early.
“But I would wholeheartedly agree the first is going to be a good indication of that, and it's going to be really important for us.”
The Big Heat – Coming into Sunday’s game, Caps captain Alex Ovechkin carries a four-game goal streak. The Great Eight has had some serious flame to his game of late, but also for just over a year now.
Washington’s final game before last season’s All-Star break was on Jan. 27, 2024 in Dallas. Going into that game, Ovechkin had scored just eight goals in 43 games to that juncture of the season, and he was also without a goal in his previous eight games at the time, though he did have seven assists.
Ovechkin scored in that last game before the break in Dallas, and it sparked a six-game goal streak, a heater that has carried right up to today’s game.
Beginning with that goal just over a year ago, Ovechkin has netted 49 goals in his last 74 regular season games, a rate of .662 goals per game. He is seventh in the League over that span, across which three of the players ahead of him have played 90 or more games.
Despite the lowest nightly average ice time (17:36) of his 20-year NHL career, Ovechkin is still averaging better than a point per game and he has a legitimate chance at reaching the 40-goal plateau; he already holds the NHL record with 13 seasons of 40 or more goals.
The big man also has a recent history of showing up in the last game before the midseason break, whether it’s for an All-Star game or the Olympics. In his final game ahead of the League’s last 10 midseason breaks – some seasons, there wasn’t one – Ovechkin has totaled 10 goals and 15 points in those 10 games, with his most noteworthy performance coming on Jan. 18, 2020 in a 6-4 comeback victory over the Islanders at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum. Ovechkin hung a hat trick on the Isles in a game in which the Caps trailed 4-1 after 40 minutes of play.
In the process of notching that hat trick against the Isles just over five years ago, Ovechkin also surpassed Mario Lemieux (690) and tied Steve Yzerman (692) on the NHL’s all-time goals list.
And for those plotting out the geographic likelihoods and possibilities of where and when Ovechkin makes the red light shine for the 895th time, here’s one last note to factor into your careful calculations.
Over the course of his career, Ovechkin’s goals per game rate spikes early and late in the season. His October rate of .678 goals per game is his highest for any month, followed by April (.634) and January (.608), with March (.595) not far behind.
Ovechkin has a career goals per game rate of .606 goals per game in March/April combined. The Caps have 23 games after the end of February this season, and they have five more games in February, typically Ovechkin’s most fallow month (.562) of the season.
A peek into both the recent and long-term histories of Ovechkin’s performance suggests it is becoming more and more likely that Ovechkin’s 895th career goal comes somewhere between now and the Caps’ final game of the regular season, April 17 in Pittsburgh.
The Great Eight’s coach also believes.
“I think his best hockey is to come in this season, that’s the way I feel,” says Carbery of his team’s captain. “I feel that way because I remember at the beginning of the year, and then the injury. Just in my head, he’s 39 years old and missing that amount of time and trying to come back and get caught up in the National Hockey League, I think that’s really, really hard.
“And I saw a difference in his individual game, and I think he is going to look even better coming out of the break. That’s just my own personal opinion.”
In The Nets – Logan Thompson will be in net for Washington this afternoon. Thompson enters today’s game with a 14-game point streak (12-0-2), tied with Braden Holtby (2016-17) for the second longest in franchise history. In his last eight starts, Thompson is 7-0-1 with a pair of shutouts, a 1.61 GAA and a .942 save pct. He has yielded two or fewer goals against in 19 of his last 24 starts.
Lifetime against the team formerly known as the Arizona Coyotes, Thompson is 2-3-0 in five appearances – all starts – with a 2.63 GAA and an .891 save pct.
For Utah, we are expecting to see Connor Ingram in goal today. Ingram has helped his team to at least a point in four of his last six starts (3-2-1), and he stopped 20 of 22 shots in a 3-2 victory over the Jackets in Columbus in his most recent start, Thursday night in the opener of the UHC’s current three-game road trip.
Lifetime against the Capitals, Ingram is 1-1-0 in two appearances – both starts – with a shutout, a 2.82 GAA and an .897 save pct.
All Lined Up – Here’s how we believe the Capitals and the UHC might look on Sunday afternoon in the District:
WASHINGTON
Forwards
8-Ovechkin, 17-Strome, 43-Wilson
21-Protas, 80-Dubois, 24-McMichael
16-Raddysh, 20-Eller, 53-Frank
22-Duhaime, 26-Dowd, 88-Mangiapane
Defensemen
38-Sandin, 74-Carlson
42-Fehervary, 3-Roy
6-Chychrun, 57-van Riemsdyk
Goaltenders
48-Thompson
79-Lindgren
Extras
13-Vrana
27-Alexeyev
52-McIlrath
Out/Injured
15-Milano (upper body)
19-Backstrom (hip)
77-Oshie (back)
UTAH
Forwards
9-Keller, 15-Kerfoot, 8-Schmaltz
11-Guenther, 27-Hayton, 53-Carcone
67-Crouse, 22-McBain, 91-Doan
63-Macelli, 82-Stenlund, 17-Bjugstad
Defensemen
98-Sergachev, 6-Marino
28-Cole, 7-Kesselring
2-Maatta, 57-DeSimone
Goaltenders
39-Ingram
70-Vejmelka
Extras
4-Valimaki
38-O’Brien
Out/Injured
10-Lamoureux (upper body)
41-Bortuzzo (lower body)
50-Durzi (lower body)
92-Cooley (lower body)
