The drama of the NHL Draft Lottery plays out tomorrow night, May 5, live from the NHL Network studios right here in Secaucus at 7:00 PM ET (ESPN). For Devils fans, the ping-pong balls hold the key to where general manager Sunny Mehta will make his first selection in the 2026 Upper Deck NHL Draft this June in Buffalo. The odds of a massive leap are long; however, the mathematical possibility of securing a top-three pick remains entirely in play.
The NHL Draft Lottery consists of two separate drawings. Fourteen numbered balls are placed into a lottery machine, creating 1,001 possible four-number combinations. One combination is immediately designated as a redraw, leaving exactly 1,000 active combinations assigned proportionately to the 16 teams that missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The lower a team finished in the regular-season standings, the more combinations they receive. The first draw determines the winner of the No. 1 overall pick, and the second draw determines the No. 2 pick.
For the second straight year, the lottery will be drawn live on television. Fans will watch as each ball is drawn in real-time, observing the odds fluctuate until the final combination is revealed under the supervision of the accounting firm Ernst & Young.
There is a crucial wrinkle in the rules regarding how far a team can move up. A team can only jump a maximum of 10 spots in the draft order if they win one of the lottery draws. Consequently, only the bottom 11 teams in the league standings are actually eligible to win the first overall pick and either draft consensus top prospect Gavin McKenna or perhaps go slightly off the board and take one of the other highly touted prospects eligible.
Where does that leave New Jersey? Finishing the regular season with 87 points placed the Devils 12th from the bottom of the league standings. The team holds 2.5% odds going into tomorrow night, meaning they own exactly 25 of the 1,000 active four-number combinations.
Because the Devils are in the 12th position, the 10-spot jump limit dictates their ceiling. If the Devils' four-number combination is pulled in the first draw, they cannot jump all the way to first overall. They will move up the maximum 10 spots, landing the second overall pick. In this scenario, the Vancouver Canucks—the team with the league's worst record—would retain the first overall selection by default.
If a different team wins the first draw, the Devils' 25 combinations remain in play for the second draw. If New Jersey wins that second drawing, the 10-spot rule applies again. Moving up from 12th, they would secure the third overall pick.
If the Devils do not win either draw, the most statistically probable outcome takes over. They will draft 12th overall. There is a fractional chance they could slide to 13th or 14th if a team positioned 13th through 16th manages to win one of the lottery draws and jumps ahead of them in the selection order.
