For many years, a conventional wisdom existed that the NHL standings picture at American Thanksgiving was predictive of how the standings would look at the end of the regular season. In other words, even though the season wasn’t even two months old, teams above the playoff cut line tended to stay above the line. And the same was true for clubs below the cut line, especially if they were more than four points out of a wildcard spot.
It was conventional wisdom, though, and not a hard-and-fast rule. There were exceptions. Perhaps the most memorable example came in the 2018-19 season, when the St. Louis Blues occupied last place in the entire league as late as January 2 before rallying to make the playoffs and win the Stanley Cup.
Generally, however, the Thanksgiving maxim had teeth. While it was true that team seedings might shift, the overall playoff picture didn’t deviate significantly over the final four and a half months of the regular season. Teams that got off to a subpar start had a difficult time gaining ground on the clubs ahead of them.
But this year is different, at least in the Eastern Conference. The November standings tell us virtually nothing about how things will finish up in April. We’re just over a week away from American Thanksgiving, so let’s assume that the standings picture today won’t change that much in the next eight days.
Only nine points separate the 16 Eastern Conference teams. (By comparison, there’s an 18-point gap in the West, thanks to Colorado’s great start and Calgary’s poor one.) Every Eastern team but one has registered at least as many wins as regulation losses. The only exception is 7-8-4 Buffalo, just one game below.
There are a couple of explanations for the logjam. First, teams that have occupied the standings cellar seem to have improved. At the same time, clubs that are accustomed to being near the top of the standings have not jumped out of the gates as quickly as in years past.
Second–and this may be the bigger reason–there’ve been an unusually high number of early-season overtime games. (Overtime games reference any game that was tied after 60 minutes, regardless of whether it ended in OT or the shootout.) Last year, 25 of 32 teams finished the regular season playing between 10 and 20 overtime games. Seven teams exceeded 20; two teams shared the highest number of 24. The year before, the numbers were comparable: six teams played more than 20, and the high was 26.
This season, with most clubs just shy of the quarter mark, nine teams have played at least seven OT games. Eight others have played six. So 17 of 32 teams are playing OT games at a rate that would match or exceed the top number from a year ago.
The high volume of OT games has reduced the number of regulation losses across the board. In the East, this has helped account for a standings picture in which nearly every team has amassed at least as many points as games played.
Will this continue? Will every team in the East finish the regular season with 82 or more points? Certainly, that would be unprecedented. And probably unlikely. But as we consider the accuracy of the Thanksgiving standings forecast, it’s difficult to know which Eastern teams will separate from the pack. In both directions.
