Push to the Playoffs: Wild-card race tightens after Stars' loss

Not the result the Dallas Stars were looking for Thursday night. The 3-1 loss to the Colorado Avalanche left them farther behind in the race for third place in the Central Division while the wild-card race got a little tighter.
The Stars (38-30-6-82 points) are now four points behind St. Louis (39-27-8-86 points) for third in the Central with eight games remaining for both teams. The Blues won 5-2 over Detroit Thursday.

As for the wild-card race, the Stars remain in the first spot and still have a four-point lead over the second wild-card team, but that spot is now held by Colorado. The Avalanche and Arizona, which lost 4-2 at Florida Thursday, are tied at 78 points, both have 32 regulation/overtime wins, and they have split the first two games of the season series. The next tiebreaker is goal differential, which the Avalanche have a big advantage in (plus-10 to minus-10).

That dropped Arizona into third place in the wild-card race (ninth in the West). So, the Stars lead over the ninth spot in the West dropped one point, from five to four with Thursday night's results.
Chicago lost to Philadelphia Thursday, so the Blackhawks remain four points out of a playoff spot but they do have one game in hand on both Colorado and Arizona and the Blackhawks and Avalanche have a home-and-home series this weekend.
The key game to watch Friday night is Minnesota at Washington. The Wild are just one point behind the Avalanche and Coyotes and could move into the second wild-card spot with two points.

Stars' playoff chances

Here are the Stars' playoff chances from the various sites that calculate them. The Stars' chances dropped slightly with last night's loss, but still range from 91 to 93 percent.
Sportsclubstats.com: 93.4%
Hockeyreference.com: 92.2%
Moneypuck.com: 91.1%
Hockeyreference.com and moneypuck.com both have the Stars at a 91-point pace and the current pace for the final playoff spot in the West at about 87 points.

Magic number

The Stars' magic number to clinch a playoff spot remained at 13 following last night's games. In order for the magic number to drop, the Stars have to pick up points or the team with the ninth-highest points potential in the West has to lose points.
The ninth-highest points potential in the West right now is still 94 points. Arizona (ninth place) could hit that by winning out, so the Stars would need 13 points to reach 95 and clinch a spot without the use of tiebreakers.
The Stars magic number could be 12 since they have the edge in the first tiebreaker, regulation/overtime wins (ROW), but they haven't clinched that tiebreaker yet.

Current playoff matchups

Central Division
1-Winnipeg vs. WC1-Dallas
2-Nashville vs. 3-St. Louis
Pacific Division
1-Calgary vs. WC2-Colorado
2-San Jose vs. 3-Vegas
If the Stars maintain their 91-point pace, there is a 78 percent chance they will play Winnipeg in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Stars play at Winnipeg Monday to kick off a four-game road trip.
This story was not subject to the approval of the National Hockey League or Dallas Stars Hockey Club.
Mark Stepneski has covered the Stars for DallasStars.com since 2012. Follow him on Twitter @StarsInsideEdge.