Push for the Playoffs: Stars create separation in wild-card race

The Dallas Stars' push for the playoffs took steps forward Tuesday night with the 4-2 win over Florida. The Stars kept pace with St. Louis in the race for third place in the Central Division and created more separation from the teams chasing them in the wild-card race.
The Stars' chances of making the playoffs increased to between 94 to 96 percent, depending on whose numbers you look at today.
The win over Florida kept the Stars two points behind St. Louis for the third spot in the Central. The Blues, who won 7-2 over Edmonton Tuesday, and the Stars both have nine games remaining.

The Stars, who continue to hold that first wild-card spot in the West, were able to increase their lead to five points over Minnesota, which is in third place in the wild-card race and ninth in the West.

The Wild lost 3-1 to Colorado, which is now just one point behind Minnesota and has played one fewer game. Colorado, which has put together consecutive wins, is now two points behind Arizona for the second wild-card spot and plays at Dallas on Thursday.
The Stars' win on Tuesday moved them four points ahead of Arizona which was idle Tuesday and does not play until Thursday at Florida.
Chicago, which is in fifth place in the wild-card race and 11th in the West, was idle Tuesday. The Blackhawks are four points behind Arizona with one game in hand.
Wednesday night will be a quiet night in the Western Conference playoff race. The one game of note is Winnipeg plays at Anaheim. The Jets have a chance to extend their lead over Nashville to three points in the race for the top spot in the Central Division.

Magic number

The Stars' magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 13. That means any combination of 13 points gained by the Stars or lost by the team currently with the ninth-highest points potential in the Western Conference would clinch a playoff spot for Dallas without the use of tiebreakers. Right now, Colorado and Chicago are tied for the ninth-highest points potential at 94. Minnesota, although currently ninth in the standings, could reach only 93. Those highest point potentials require winning all remaining games.
It would be fair to argue that the Stars' magic number could be 12 since they hold a strong advantage in the first tiebreaker at the end of the season, which is regulation/overtime wins (ROW). But for now, we'll use 13 as the number.

Stars' playoff chances

Here are the Stars' playoff chances from the various sites that track such matters.
The current points pace for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference is about 88 points through Tuesday's games. The Stars can put their chances of making the playoffs at just under 99 percent by getting at least eight points (4-5-0, 3-4-2, etc.) for a season total of 90, according to sportsclubstats.com. Nine points (4-4-1, 3-3-3, etc.) and a season total of 91 would push their chances to 99.8 percent.
Ten points (5-4-0, 4-3-2, etc.) for a season total of 92 points would give them a 100 percent chance.

Current playoff matchups

Central Division
1-Winnipeg vs. WC1-Dallas
2-Nashville vs. 3-St. Louis
Pacific Division
1-Calgary vs. WC2-Arizona
2-San Jose vs. 3-Vegas
This story was not subject to the approval of the National Hockey League or Dallas Stars Hockey Club.
Mark Stepneski has covered the Stars for DallasStars.com since 2012. Follow him on Twitter @StarsInsideEdge.