State Your Case: Can Matthews score 60 goals again?

Last season, Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs became the first player in the NHL to score 60 goals since Steven Stamkos of the Tampa Bay Lightning reached the mark in 2011-12.

Matthews finished with 60 goals in 73 games, nine fewer than it took Stamkos to score his 60th. Alex Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals is the only other player to have scored at least 60 goals since the turn of the century, scoring 65 in 82 games in 2007-08.
So, can Matthews become the first NHL player to score at least 60 goals in consecutive seasons since Pavel Bure did it for the Vancouver Canucks in 1992-93 (60 in 83 games) and 1993-94 (60 in 76 games)?
That's the question NHL.com deputy managing editor Adam Kimelman and senior director of editorial Shawn P. Roarke debate in this installment of State Your Case.
Kimelman: Even though Matthews was the first player in a decade to score 60 goals in a season, there's no way we're waiting that long for it to happen again. In fact, I say he scores at least 60 this season. At 24 years old, Matthews is in his prime, and nobody in the NHL shoots the puck better. And it's not just how hard he shoots it. Matthews scores so much because of the quickness of his release combined with an incredible array of angles and setups he can use to get his shots off. His shots can come from anywhere on the ice. At 6-foot-3, 205 pounds, he's strong enough to take the puck off the wall, seal off a defenseman and score from in close, or set up in the face-off circle for a one-timer. Matthews also has an inner drive to prove each season he can get a little better. To me, that means scoring 60 again, for sure.
Roarke: Look, there's no questioning that Matthews is a great player, and maybe the best player in the NHL. But that's not the argument here. The argument is whether he can score 60 goals in 2022-23. In the long and illustrious history of the League, that number has been achieved 40 times, and only three times since 2000-01. Ovechkin, the greatest goal-scorer of his generation, and arguably of any generation, has topped 60 goals once, scoring 65 in 2007-08. As mentioned above, Stamkos is the other player to score 60 in that span, doing so in 2011-12 as a 22-year-old with his whole career ahead of him. Stamkos is 32 now and hasn't scored more than 45 in a season since, though that's in part due to a variety of injuries and two shortened seasons (2012-13, 2020-21). Bure, the man Matthews is chasing, came close to scoring 60 again on two more occasions (58 with the Florida Panthers in 1999-2000; 59 in 2000-01), but he could never quite reach the mark. So, it is out of respect for the Herculean nature of the feat that I'm betting against it happening.
Kimelman: I understand how rare, and how difficult, it is to score 60 goals in a season, but let's look back at the 2020-21 season, when Matthews scored 41 goals in 52 games. In an 82-game season, that would equate to 61 goals in 78 games (Matthews missed four games in the 56-game pandemic-shortened season). So, it's possible this debate could be about Matthews potentially scoring 60 for the third consecutive season. With his size, skill, shot, skating, strength and work ethic, I think the only thing that could keep Matthews from scoring 60 again is an injury.
Roarke:Injuries happen, of course, but let us not forget the hockey gods as well. To average three goals for every four games played requires a bit of luck. Last season, Matthews scored on 17.2 percent of his shots, slightly higher than his career average of 16.4. At his average rate, Matthews would need to put more than 365 shots on net to reach 60 goals, something that has only been done 12 times since 2000-01, with Ovechkin accounting for nine of those instances. So that shot volume from even an elite forward is unprecedented. And, by the way, of those 12 instances, the highest shooting percentage was 15.4 by, who else, Bure, when he scored 59 goals on 384 shots in 2000-01. Can Matthews score 60 again in his career? Most definitely. Can he lead the League in scoring again? No doubt. But he won't score 60 again this season. History suggests it is too tall a hill to climb. If Matthews proves me wrong, more power to him -- and to Adam for believing.