State Your Case: Can Ovechkin score 50 again?

Alex Ovechkin scored 50 goals last season, the ninth time the Washington Capitals forward has reached the half-century mark in 17 NHL seasons.

The Russia-born forward has 780 goals in 1,274 regular-season games, the third-highest goal total in League history, behind Hall of Famers Gordie Howe (801) and Wayne Gretzky (894).
His average of 0.61 goals per game is second among active players (minimum 100 games played), behind Auston Matthews (0.64) of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
But Ovechkin will turn 37 years old on Sept. 17 and is entering his 18th NHL season. He is the only NHL player to score 50 goals in a season after turning 36.
So can he score 50 or more goals again in 2022-23?
That's the question before NHL.com senior writer Dan Rosen and staff writer Amalie Benjamin in this installment of State Your Case.
Benjamin: Yes Ovechkin can. Oh, you need more than that? I'd never bet against Ovechkin, especially given what we watched him accomplish last season, when he scored 50 goals in 77 games. Why would you doubt what he can do again this season, even if he is about to turn 37? He's all but assured to pass Howe in goals this season, and then the only name ahead of his on the all-time list will be Gretzky. With every goal he scores, that record becomes more and more attainable. With 115 goals to go to become the NHL leader, I'd say that's enough motivation to hit his 10th 50-goal season -- which itself would be an NHL record, passing Gretzky and Mike Bossy -- don't you?
Rosen: No. And I'll give you more than that without asking. I'll never doubt Ovechkin's ability to score goals, but asking for 50 again, at 37, potentially without center Nicklas Backstrom for the entire season because of hip surgery and likely without forward Tom Wilson for at least the first half of the season because of knee surgery, will make it very difficult. He won't be surrounded by the same level of talent. It should, in theory, be easier to cover Ovechkin because of that. Ovechkin no doubt will power-shoot his way to 40 this season. Give him an inch and he can score. But last season he became the oldest player in NHL history to get to 50. Now we're wondering if he can do it again at 37. Even the slightest regression, even if he plays the full 82 games, means he won't get to 50. An extra year on his body with fewer proven threats around him means Ovechkin will not score 50. He'll come close. He won't get there.

Benjamin: Close but no cigar, eh? I'll give you that it will certainly be harder this season. Losing his running mates isn't going to make things easier on Ovechkin. But if he lines up alongside center Evgeny Kuznetsov next season with Wilson expected back in December, it still shakes out as a pretty strong line for the Capitals. Plus, think about this: In the past five seasons, Ovechkin has scored 48 or more goals in every season except for the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 season, when he had 24 in 45 games. He scored 49 in 82 games in 2017-18, 51 in 81 games in 2018-19, 48 in 68 games in 2019-20, and 50 in 77 games in 2021-22. That's some serious consistency, even as his age ticks up. There are a lot of reasons he might not score 50 but, you know, I like to live dangerously. I still say he does it.
Rosen: Since you started it, let's have some fun with math. In the past five seasons, Ovechkin has scored 222 goals in 353 games. That's an average of 0.63 goals per game, which is an average of 51 goals per 82 games. Remarkable. But, like I said, very close to being on the wrong side of 50 too. In his past four full seasons, Ovechkin is averaging 77 games and 49 goals per season. He scored 50 in 77 games last season, right on par. But now he's a year older with some extra miles on his body. He went on a tear at the end of last season, scoring 18 goals in his final 24 games and eight goals in his final 10. That's how he got to 50. Now we're saying he needs to go on a ridiculous tear like that again to score 50 once more. Maybe I'll kick myself (figuratively, not literally) for betting against Ovechkin, but 50 again is too big a stretch for me to get behind. I'll say 45 for Ovechkin, which should be celebrated. He will pass Gretzky without scoring 50 in a season again.