Stanley Cup Final predictions between Avalanche, Lightning

The 2022 Stanley Cup Final is a virtual toss-up, according to 16 NHL.com writers and editors.

Of the 16, 10 predicted the Avalanche to win the Cup, and the other six think the Lightning will skate away with their third straight championship.
As for the Conn Smythe Trophy, which goes to the most valuable player in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar got six votes and his teammate, forward Nathan MacKinnon, got four votes.
Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy was the only Lightning player to get multiple votes with three; defenseman Victor Hedman and forwards Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos each got one.
Here is how the experts picked and why:

Amalie Benjamin, staff writer

Conference finals record:2-0
Overall record:7-7
PICK: Avalanche in 6
WHY: In his press conference after Game 6 against the New York Rangers on Saturday, Lightning coach Jon Cooper acknowledged how important it ultimately was that his team had gotten a break before the Eastern Conference Final after sweeping the Florida Panthers, something the Rangers didn't get with their seven-game second-round series win against the Carolina Hurricanes. It didn't help the Lightning initially, but by the end, it came up big. I see the same thing happening in this series. The rest that the Avalanche got will prove the difference between two extremely talented teams.
CONN SMYTHE WINNER: Nathan MacKinnon, Avalanche

Tim Campbell, staff writer

Conference finals record:2-0
Overall record: 12-2
PICK: Avalanche in 6
WHY: The defending champion Lightning are going to get their toughest test of the three straight Stanley Cup Finals they've contested. They are facing the best team in the opposite conference, which I don't think was the case the past two years against the Dallas Stars and Montreal Canadiens. Tampa Bay executed beautifully and dominated in the previous two Finals, true champions and full value for their titles, but they are in very deep this season. If the Avalanche execute something close to their best game, the Cup is theirs to win.
CONN SMYTHE WINNER:Cale Makar, Avalanche

Brian Compton, managing editor

Conference finals record: 2-0
Overall record:9-5
PICK:Lightning in 6
WHY: The Avalanche may actually boast more offensive talent than the back-to-back champions, but the Lightning have the better goalie in Andrei Vasilevskiy, who just so happens to be the best in the NHL at his position and has thrived once again this postseason. Kudos to Colorado for getting over the hump in these playoffs, but the last step of this process is always the steepest. Tampa Bay has been in this position multiple times before and knows how to seal the deal. It should be a close series but expect the Lightning's remarkable run to continue.
CONN SMYTHE WINNER: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Lightning

Nicholas J. Cotsonika, columnist

Conference finals record:2-0
Overall record: 10-4
PICK: Lightning in 7
WHY:The Avalanche are 12-2, but they haven't faced a team that can lock it down like the Lightning or a goalie like Andrei Vasilevskiy. The key will be whether the Avalanche can use their speed and skill like usual, and if and when they get shots through, whether they can put the puck behind one of the best goalies on the planet. In the past, they have struggled to keep an even keel amid adversity in the playoffs. This will be their biggest test by far this season. The benefit of the doubt goes to the team that has won back-to-back championships and 11 consecutive playoff series. Colorado's playoff slogan is "FIND A WAY"; that's what Tampa Bay has proven it can do.
CONN SMYTHE WINNER: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Lightning

William Douglas, staff writer

Conference finals record: 0-2
Overall record: 7-7
PICK:Avalanche in 7
WHY:Nathan MacKinnon, fueled by Colorado's exit in the second round of the playoffs last year at the hands of the Vegas Golden Knights, and Cale Makar's play, which is drawing comparisons to Bobby Orr, will power the Avalanche to the Stanley Cup. Colorado also has a strong supporting cast that could get stronger if Nazem Kadri and Andrew Cogliano return for the Final following hand surgeries. The Avalanche can defeat teams a variety of ways, whether it's a high-scoring game or defensive battle. It's hard to pick against Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy and the back-to-back Stanley Cup champions, but this feels like Colorado's time.
CONN SMYHTE WINNER:Cale Makar, Avalanche

Tom Gulitti, staff writer

Conference finals record:2-0
Overall record:9-5
PICK: Lightning in 6
WHY:Tampa Bay has come this far. Might as well finish the job and become the first team to win the Stanley Cup in three straight seasons since the New York Islanders won four consecutive championships from 1980-83. I thought the Lightning would have run out of gas by now. Their 65 playoff games over the past three seasons are tied for the most during a three-season span in NHL history (Chicago Blackhawks, 2013-15). But the Lightning keep digging down to find more ways to win, even after losing forward Brayden Point to a lower-body injury in Game 7 of the first round against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Now Point is expected to return at some point in the Cup Final, giving Tampa Bay another boost against the Avalanche.
CONN SMYTHE WINNER:Nikita Kucherov, Lightning

Pete Jensen, director, senior fantasy editor

Conference finals record:2-0
Overall record: 10-4
PICK: Avalanche in 7
WHY:In this clash of the titans (and my preseason Cup Final matchup prediction), this is the Avalanche's time to triumph. Colorado, a puck-possession juggernaut, is more talented, motivated and battle-tested than it's been since last winning it all in 2001. The back-to-back champion Lightning will undoubtedly be the Avalanche's most difficult test to date, but Colorado not only has similar star power to Tampa Bay but also superior depth, home-ice advantage, more rest and the hunger to finally get over the hump. Colorado has led the NHL in wins (137) over the past three regular seasons combined and is overdue for its third title.
CONN SMYTHE WINNER: Nathan MacKinnon, Avalanche

Adam Kimelman, deputy managing editor

Conference finals record:2-0
Overall record: 11-3
PICK: Lightning in 6
WHY: The Lightning have met every challenge thrown at them. They rallied from down 3-2 against the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round, winning Game 7 on the road. They swept the Florida Panthers in the second round without arguably their best forward, Brayden Point. They lost the first two games against the New York Rangers in the conference final, then won four straight. Their game is exactly where they need it to be, and they likely will get Point back at some point during the Final. The Lightning and Avalanche each have top-end stars, dependable depth and game-controlling defensemen. But the Lightning have goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy and championship experience. No moment will be too big for them, and that's why the Lightning will win the Cup for the third straight year.
CONN SMYTHE WINNER: Victor Hedman, Lightning

Mike G. Morreale, staff writer

Conference finals record:2-0
Overall record:12-2
PICK: Avalanche in 7
WHY: I'll stick with the club I chose to win it all at the start of the Stanley Cup Playoffs despite the fact they may have a slight disadvantage in goal. Still, the Avalanche may have the greater depth on offense, led by their star center Nathan MacKinnon. They have proven to be extremely formidable on defense, bolstered by their standout at the position in Cale Makar. Colorado has averaged more goals (4.64 goals-per game) and is tied for third in fewest goals-against (2.86) among all 16 teams that qualified for the postseason. They have the second-best power play percentage (31.1) and are tied for eighth with the Toronto Maple Leafs in fewest penalties taken (43); playing seven fewer games than Toronto.
CONN SMYTHE WINNER:Cale Makar, Avalanche

Tracey Myers, staff writer

Conference finals record:2-0
Overall record:10-4
PICK: Avalanche in 7
WHY: I'm pretty sure I've picked the Avalanche every year I've been at NHL.com and I'm going to keep picking them until I get this right. On a non-personal front, the Avalanche are rested, they're refreshed, and they could be healthier (at least on the goalie front. Darcy Kuemper should be available for the Final after missing the past three games of the Western Conference Final with an upper-body injury sustained in Game 1 vs. the Edmonton Oilers). All due respect to the Lightning, who have been incredibly impressive in getting to the Final for the third consecutive season, but I think it's the Avalanche's time.
CONN SMYTHE WINNER:Nathan MacKinnon, Avalanche

Bill Price, VP, Editor-in-Chief

Conference finals record:0-2
Overall record:9-5
PICK:Lightning in 5
WHY: Until I actually see someone defeat the Lightning in the postseason, I can't pick against them. Actually, I did in the Eastern Conference Final and got burned. I won't make that mistake again. They have the better goalie in the Final in Andrei Vasilevskiy, they have true leaders in Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh and, quite simply, they know how to win. The Avalanche will be the toughest team they have faced in the Final over the past three seasons, but it won't matter. We will get a three-peat this season.
CONN SMYTHE WINNER: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Lightning

Shawn P. Roarke, senior director of editorial

Conference finals record:2-0
Overall record:10-4
PICK: Avalanche in 7
WHY:The Colorado Avalanche are the best team in the playoffs and have the speed and skill to finally solve the Tampa Bay Lightning, who have won 11 straight series. Forward Nathan MacKinnon and defenseman Cale Makar will present challenges that the Lightning have not faced in their previous runs, each playing at an all-world level. It will be entertaining, it will be close, but the Avalanche have a bit too much.
CONN SMYTHE WINNER: Cale Makar, Avalanche

Dan Rosen, senior writer

Conference finals record:2-0
Overall record:10-4
PICK:Avalanche in 6
WHY: It seems absurd to pick against the Lightning at this point. They are the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions. They are a machine that doesn't look like it can be broken. But this series has the feel of the Edmonton Oilers starting their run of dominance in 1984 by ending the New York Islanders' dynasty. The Avalanche are fast and dynamic and filled with star players. They have proven in their first three rounds that they can win any which way you want to play. Run and gun? Fine. Tight checking? Sure. Size doesn't affect them because they have it too. Speed won't burn them because they do that to their opponent. They have experience and confidence now too. They know they're good enough. They'll respect the Lightning, but they won't fear them. And their speed will eventually overwhelm the Lightning in the way the Lightning's defensive ability overwhelmed the New York Rangers in the Eastern Conference Final.
CONN SMYTHE WINNER: Cale Makar, Avalanche

David Satriano, staff writer

Conference finals record:2-0
Overall record: 9-5
PICK:Lightning in 6
WHY:The Avalanche will have a long layoff after sweeping the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference Final. What they don't have is much Cup Final experience, with just two players on the roster having won it before (forwards Darren Helm, 2008 with Detroit Red Wings and Andrei Burakovsky, 2018 with Washington Capitals). The Lightning have 16 players who have won the Stanley Cup with them including 13 who have won it each of the past two seasons. Plus Corey Perry who won it with the Anaheim Ducks in 2007. They've been battle-tested, and nothing seems to rattle them. They also have Andrei Vasilevskiy in net, which is why when all is said and done, they will be lifting the Cup for the third straight season.
CONN SMYTHE WINNER:Steven Stamkos, Lightning

Dave Stubbs, columnist

Conference finals record:2-0
Overall record: 11-3
PICK: Avalanche in 6
WHY:One part of me says I'd love to see the Tampa Bay Lightning win their third straight championship, the first team to do so since the New York Islanders of the 1980s, because they have, in my view, the world's best goalie in Andrei Vasilevskiy and the NHL's best coach in Jon Cooper. But I'm going with Colorado because of Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog and Cale Makar - in any way you want to arrange them. The Avalanche have been knocking on the door. They're at the point that they're going to kick it down. It's going to be a tremendous Final, with Colorado ultimately shoving a stick in the spokes of Tampa Bay's near-dynasty.
CONN SMYTHE WINNER:Nathan MacKinnon, Avalanche

Mike Zeisberger, staff writer

Conference finals record: 2-0
Overall record:12-2
PICK: Avalanche in 7
WHY:Avalanche were my preseason pick to win the Stanley Cup and I haven't seen anything in their play the first three rounds that would change my mind. In order to do that, however, they'll have to defeat Andrei Vasilevskiy, the best goalie in the world. If they don't win, he'll be the reason.
CONN SMYTHE WINNER: Cale Makar, Avalanche