Mailbag: Coyotes poised to surprise, early Calder favorites
NHL.com's Dan Rosen answers weekly questions
What team will be the biggest surprise this season? -- @TJRinger1
The Arizona Coyotes had a strong finish last season, going 17-9-3 in their last 29 games, and they've improved this offseason. They could be sneaky good this season. The limb isn't big enough for me to say they'll be sneaky good enough to get into the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but there are plenty of reasons for optimism.
It starts with defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who should be the Coyotes' next captain. Ekman-Larsson signing an eight-year contract extension July 1 is validation of what Arizona has been doing since John Chayka was named general manager May 5, 2016. The Coyotes have been building with youth, through the NHL Draft, developing their prospects, and bringing them along at a proper pace while adding veterans: center Derek Stepan, defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson (who signed a two-year extension) and goaltender Antti Raanta (who signed a three-year contract April 6). Raanta statistically was one of the best goalies in the NHL from Jan. 1 to the end of the season, with a .942 save percentage and 1.84 goals-against average.
Arizona added center Alex Galchenyuk in a trade with the Montreal Canadiens for forward Max Domi on June 15. Galchenyuk, who has been a 30-goal scorer, has the tools to be a top-two center. He'll be given a long rope to prove it, something he never got in Montreal. Michael Grabner, who signed a three-year contract July 1, will give the Coyotes a fast left wing who can move up and down the lineup and be a shorthanded scoring threat every time he's on the penalty kill.
They also are deep at defenseman with Ekman-Larsson, Hjalmarsson, Alex Goligoski, Jason Demers and Jakob Chychrun. Center Clayton Keller could build on his 65-point rookie season and Galchenyuk should be a go-to goal-scorer. And now that they're in season No. 2 under coach Rick Tocchet, there won't be the getting-to-know-you adjustment period they went through at the start of last season. There is finally a real reason for optimism in Arizona.
Who is your early favorite to win the Calder Trophy? -- @xBraedenn
A defenseman has won the Calder Trophy twice in the past 14 seasons (Aaron Ekblad of the Florida Panthers in 2014-15 and Tyler Myers, then of the Buffalo Sabres, in 2009-10) and 11 times since the trophy was first awarded to Carl Voss of the Detroit Red Wings in 1933. My two early favorites to win it this season are defensemen Rasmus Dahlin of the Sabres and Miro Heiskanen of the Dallas Stars.
Dahlin, the No. 1 pick in the 2018 NHL Draft, should get an opportunity to play about 20-25 minutes per game for Buffalo, coached by Phil Housley, a Hall of Fame defenseman who has mentored Nashville Predators defenseman Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, Mattias Ekholm and, for one season, P.K. Subban. Expectations regarding Dahlin are predictably high, but he will get the ice time necessary to be productive enough to be a Calder Trophy winner.
Heiskanen was the No. 3 pick by the Stars in the 2017 NHL Draft. The super-skilled, fast and smart Finland-born player was named Liiga's best defenseman last season, the youngest to win that award (19 years old). He could get the opportunity to play on the power play with defenseman John Klingberg, who had 23 points (one goal, 22 assists) with the man-advantage last season. Klingberg is a righty and Heiskanen is a lefty, so coach Jim Montgomery can put them together at the top of the power play with forwards Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov.
Is it safe to assume Kevin Hayes' days are numbered with the New York Rangers after signing a one-year contract? -- @Zak4B
It's easy to draw that conclusion, but I don't think it's safe yet to assume it even though the signs are leading in that direction. Hayes certainly could be moved before the 2019 NHL Trade Deadline, but I don't think him signing a one-year contract with the Rangers and avoiding an arbitration hearing means he's guaranteed to be traded. There are a lot of moving pieces involved in the future of Hayes in New York beyond the trade deadline. He can become an unrestricted free agent after this season.
Having Hayes signed for this season buys the Rangers time to see exactly what they have in rookie centers Lias Andersson and Filip Chytil. If each performs at or above expectations, Hayes becomes expendable because the Rangers' top-three center depth looks more like Mika Zibanejad at No. 1 followed by Chytil and Andersson. I think they see Vladislav Namestnikov as more of a wing at this point, but he can move to the middle too. However, if the Rangers discover one of the two rookies is better suited for the wing, they could double back with Hayes and try to work out a long-term contract.
Can Mathew Barzal score 90-plus points and lead the New York Islanders back to the Stanley Cup Playoffs? -- @ryanjenkins11
Barzal could score 90-plus points and the Islanders could miss the playoffs. The 21-year-old center had 85 points (22 goals, 63 assists) last season, when New York had John Tavares, and the Islanders did not qualify for the postseason. Their fortunes hinge on defense and goaltending; they were the worst defensive team in the NHL last season, last in goals-against per game (3.57), shots on goal allowed per game (35.6) and penalty kill (73.2 percent). They didn't upgrade their defensemen in any meaningful way and it's unclear if their goaltending is better with Robin Lehner replacing Jaroslav Halak. Lehner signed a one-year contract, essentially a prove-it contract, July 3.
Barry Trotz, the Islanders' new coach, should devise a system that will allow them to be better defensively than they were last season. I also think the addition of depth forwards Leo Komarov, Tom Kuhnhackl, Valtteri Filppula and Matt Martin could make them a stingier team to play against, but the improvement on defense has to be great for the Islanders to be a playoff team. To suggest they will improve enough in that area to make the playoffs without a meaningful upgrade would be foolish.
Is there any way the Ottawa Senators end up retaining Erik Karlsson, or is the writing on the wall at this point? -- @briantodd34
I think it's too late. Karlsson's future does not appear to be in Ottawa. I'm frankly surprised he hasn't been traded yet. There is no contract extension in place for the 28-year-old defenseman, and there is no thought there will be. The Senators did offer him one, which general manager Pierre Dorion announced July 1. It's now Aug. 1. If Karlsson hasn't signed it yet, that is a clear indicator he doesn't view his future to be in Ottawa. He's obviously a wanted commodity, and though I understand it would be a massive trade for the Senators, at some point they're going to have to pull the trigger because I think starting the season with him on the team could be toxic. It's not that Karlsson is toxic, it's that having a player who isn't longing to be on the team, especially if that player is the captain, can be detrimental to what coach Guy Boucher wants to build in training camp.
Will not having a solid backup goaltender prove to be the biggest weakness for the Washington Capitals this season? -- @RyanFines
Weakness is the wrong word. "Unknown" better describes the Capitals' goaltending depth after Braden Holtby. It is without question their biggest issue.
We don't yet know what Pheonix Copley is going to be in the NHL. He has made two NHL starts, each with the St. Louis Blues, and allowed six goals in 83 minutes. He didn't play in an NHL game last season, when he was 15-17-6 with a 2.91 goals-against average and .896 save percentage in 41 games with Hershey of the American Hockey League. Those numbers don't exactly make for optimism.
Trading goaltender Philipp Grubauer to the Colorado Avalanche and including defenseman Brooks Orpik and his $5.5 million NHL salary cap charge into the deal gave Washington the room to sign defenseman John Carlson to an eight-year, $64 million contract, stopping him from becoming an unrestricted free agent. The Capitals also were able to re-sign defenseman Michal Kempny to a four-year, $10 million contract, not to mention they also brought back Orpik on a one-year, $1 million contract after he was bought out by the Avalanche. However, Washington traded Grubauer knowing it potentially was creating a backup-goaltender issue. Copley, 26, must be serviceable in his early-season starts or the Capitals will be in the market for a backup for Holtby at some point. The worst-case scenario is Holtby gets injured, but that's a worst-case scenario for any team with a defined No. 1 goalie.
The backup situation isn't a reason to worry about the Capitals now, but it could become problematic at some point this season.
