Mailbag: Best bets to get back to playoffs, outlook for Capitals

Here is the Oct. 12 edition of the mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on Twitter using #OvertheBoards. Tweet your questions to @drosennhl.

Which team from each division that didn't make the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season will contend for a spot this season?-- @phruitloops420
Metropolitan Division: New York Islanders
The Islanders have the goaltending with Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov and the defense to get back to being a playoff contender. They need more production from center Mathew Barzal (59 points last season), forward Anthony Beauvillier (34 points) and center Kyle Palmieri (33 points). If they can improve to 3.00 goals per game, which would be up from 2.79 last season, I think they will be a playoff team. Of the 18 teams that averaged at least 3.00 goals per game last season, 14 made the playoffs.
Atlantic Division: Detroit Red Wings
I could have gone with the Ottawa Senators and Buffalo Sabres, but Detroit is the choice here because of its veteran additions (center Andrew Copp and forward David Perron and defensemen Ben Chiarot and Olli Maatta) to go along with the talent already in place, including center Dylan Larkin, forwards Lucas Raymond, Tyler Bertuzzi and Jakub Vrana, and defenseman Moritz Seider, who won the Calder Trophy, voted as the NHL's best rookie last season. Ville Husso is also a solid addition in net, especially if he can be as good as he was with the St. Louis Blues last season (25-7-6, 2.56 goals-against average, .919 save percentage, two shutouts).
Central Division: Winnipeg Jets
The Jets are the pick almost by default because five teams from the division made the playoffs last season and the other two that didn't are the Chicago Blackhawks and Arizona Coyotes, each rebuilding. Winnipeg has the talent to get back into the playoffs after missing last season, but the issue could be the division itself: It's loaded. The Colorado Avalanche, Blues, Nashville Predators, Minnesota Wild and Dallas Stars all have designs on being playoff teams again. The Jets will have to push one or possibly two of them out.
Pacific Division: Vancouver Canucks
I went back and forth between the Canucks and Vegas Golden Knights and landed on Vancouver because of goaltending. Thatcher Demko is a No. 1 goalie and proved it last season, going 33-22-7 with a 2.72 GAA, .915 save percentage and one shutout in 64 games. The Golden Knights don't have a No. 1 that we know of; it could be Logan Thompson, who was good last season in 19 games, including 17 starts (10-5-3, 2.68 GAA, .914 save percentage, one shutout), but the sample size is too small to get a good read on whether the 25-year-old has No. 1 potential.
I get the sense people are doubting the Washington Capitals as a top-three Metropolitan Division team. Why? I feel like [center Dylan] Strome and [forward Connor] Brown are more than capable of keeping the top six elite and they added a very good goaltender. What gives? Age? (Forward) Alex Ovechkin is a lock for 40 goals again.-- @trechenbach
The Capitals weren't a top three team in the Metropolitan Division last season and I don't think they will be again this season. I have them fifth, with the New York Rangers, Carolina Hurricanes, Pittsburgh Penguins and Islanders ahead of them. Center Nicklas Backstrom might be out the entire season with hip injuries. That's significant. Strome can be a serviceable center, but Backstrom has been a glue piece for more than a decade. When healthy, he's one of the best two-way centers in the NHL. Tom Wilson is also out to start the season because of offseason knee surgery, and the forward may not return until January. That's another huge blow because Wilson opens so much space on the ice with his size (6-foot-4, 220 pounds) and he has the skill to match it.
Ovechkin is 37 now and I think 45 is the right number, but Wilson won't get his 24 because of his late start to the season and Washington has to replace Backstrom's production. Strome and Brown can make up for some of it, but not all of it. The Islanders, Columbus Blue Jackets and New Jersey Devils should all be better than they were last season. And the Atlantic Division should tighten up as well with the improvements made by the Senators, Sabres and Red Wings.

The metrics and analytics I've seen say the New York Rangers will regress a considerable amount this season. I notice you and a lot of your colleagues at NHL.com are high on them going into the season. Why do you think the discrepancy exists?-- @nyrprpokemon
Part of the reason is because of the difference between the Rangers before and after the NHL Trade Deadline last season. Prior to the deadline, they defending often (45.2 shot attempts percentage, tied for 30th in the NHL) and were giving up a lot of shots on goal (32.2 per game, 22nd). Goalie Igor Shesterkin was brilliant with a 2.05 goals-against average playing in 41 of those 63 games, but that wouldn't have been sustainable so New York acquired Copp, Motte, forward Frank Vatrano and defenseman Justin Braun in trades. They became deeper and more structured; they had a 53.2 shot attempts percentage and allowed 26.3 shots on goal per game through their last 19 games.
This season could be different; part of that has to do with relying on Shesterkin to be at least close to as good as he was last season (36-13-4, 2.07 GAA, .935 save percentage, six shutouts), but that is the expectation. The addition of Vincent Trocheck as a replacement for Strome will help. Strome had chemistry with left wing Artemi Panarin, but Trocheck is a better two-way center; he wins more face-offs and can hold possession longer. The Rangers also are a relatively young team with the potential to improve, particularly forwards Alexis Lafreniere, who turned 21 Tuesday, and Kaapo Kakko, 21, and center Filip Chytil, 23. Forward Chris Kreider may not score 52 goals again, but some of the difference could and should be made up by Lafreniere, Kakko and Chytil.
I bought season tickets for the Chicago Blackhawks this season for the first time ever. Was this a mistake?-- @ColBourbon
Absolutely not if you're in it for the long haul. You need to temper your expectations for the start of what could be a long and arduous rebuilding process. But you'll get to be with the Blackhawks every step of the way as they enter a new era and try to build another championship team. You'll still get to see right wing Patrick Kane, a future Hall of Famer, and center Jonathan Toews. Each enters the last year of his contract and it's no longer unimaginable to consider each may not finish his NHL career in Chicago. So enjoy what is left of the Kane and Toews era, watch the prospects, look for the potential and see the progress.
The NHL has attempted to attract more fans with recent outdoor game locations and Global Series games. When will there be a game played on a body of water? Or maybe games in Africa or Asia? What could be in the works in the near future?-- @theashcity
I wouldn't plan to see a game played on a body of water any time soon. NHL games are played on NHL rinks with ice, boards and glass professionally installed. The NHL has gone to great lengths to make the outdoor game experience incredible for all fans and players, preserving the playing surface as much as Mother Nature allows. Though it would be epic to see a game played on a frozen pond or lake, there are too many variables out of the NHL's control. But there will continue to be creative approaches to the outdoor games, whether it's the venue or what goes on inside the venue.
It would be wild to see the NHL play a game in Africa, but where would it be played and what is the interest? The League has gone to China twice for preseason games in Beijing and Shanghai in 2017, and Beijing and Shenzhen in 2017. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic there was a push for NHL hockey in China. That hasn't waned, but NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly said he's not sure when, or if, the NHL will bring teams back to the country for preseason games. The NHL has opened the regular season with games in Japan in 1997, 1998 and 2000. That was built around the 1998 Nagano Olympics, the first that featured NHL players. I haven't heard any discussion on returning to Japan, but it wouldn't be surprising if that is also something that could be in the long-term plans.