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Fantasy mock draft 4.0 analysis for 2018-19

Sharks, Maple Leafs worth stacking after offseason moves; Kovalchuk slips outside top 100; Ristolainen, Grubauer go higher than usual

by Fantasy Hockey Staff @NHLFantasy / NHL.com

NHL.com has conducted another fantasy hockey mock draft with 12 teams (16 players per team). Mock draft participants included NHL.com's Pete Jensen, Rob Reese and 10 fans. For more fantasy coverage, visit visit NHL.com/Fantasy.

NOTES: This was a non-keeper mock draft with standard categories (goals, assists, plus/minus, power-play points, shots on goal and hits for skaters; wins, goals-against average, save percentage and shutouts for goalies). Positions indicate Yahoo eligibility for 2018-19. Picks by Reese (No. 8 overall) and Jensen (No. 9) are in bold.

 

FANTASY COVERAGE: Top 250 ranks | Yahoo position updates for 2018-19 | Cheat sheet

 

ROUND 1

1. Connor McDavid (EDM - C)
2. Nikita Kucherov (TBL - RW)
3. Jamie Benn (DAL - C/LW)
4. Alex Ovechkin (WSH - LW)
5. Brad Marchand (BOS - LW)
6. Sidney Crosby (PIT - C)
7. Patrik Laine (WPG - RW)
8. Erik Karlsson (SJS - D) - RR
9. Evgeni Malkin (PIT - C) - PJ

10. Patrick Kane (CHI - RW)
11. John Tavares (TOR - C)
12. David Pastrnak (BOS - RW)

Analysis: Benn, who's dual-eligible in Yahoo and covers offensive categories and hits, went ahead of Ovechkin for the first time in four NHL.com mock drafts. Three of the first five picks were left wings. Karlsson was the first defenseman off the board after being traded to the San Jose Sharks on Sept. 13. Four center-only players went in the first round, showing that fans have become aware of the abundance of centers and scarcity at wing. Four RW-only players went in the first round. Kane went much higher than his NHL.com consensus rank (21) but nearly in line with his Yahoo average draft position (8.2). No goalies were selected in the opening round.

Video: DAL@LAK: Benn finishes natural hat trick in 1st

 

ROUND 2

13. Taylor Hall (NJD - LW)
14. Auston Matthews (TOR - C)
15. Steven Stamkos (TBL - C)
16. Nathan MacKinnon (COL - C) - PJ
17. Tyler Seguin (DAL - C) - RR

18. Claude Giroux (PHI - C/LW)
19. Blake Wheeler (WPG - C/RW)
20. Victor Hedman (TBL - D)
21. Vladimir Tarasenko (STL - RW)
22. Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL - G)
23. Pekka Rinne (NSH - G)
24. Connor Hellebuyck (WPG - G)

Analysis: Tavares and Matthews were stacked by the same team with its first two picks. After Tavares slipped in the previous mock draft, Matthews fell to the second round this time. The first goalie taken was Vasilevskiy at 22nd, prompting two more picks at the position to close out the second round. Rinne, well below Hellebuyck in NHL.com's rankings, was selected ahead in this mock. Hedman was the second defenseman drafted.


 
ROUND 3

25. Brent Burns (SJS - D)
26. Braden Holtby (WSH - G)
27. Mark Scheifele (WPG - C)
28. Jack Eichel (BUF - C)
29. Phil Kessel (PIT - RW)
30. Dustin Byfuglien (WPG - D)
31. Johnny Gaudreau (CGY - LW)
32. Mitchell Marner (TOR - RW) - RR
33. Artemi Panarin (CBJ - LW) - PJ

34. Sergei Bobrovsky (CBJ - G)
35. Frederik Andersen (TOR - G)
36. Evgeny Kuznetsov (WSH - C)

Analysis: Panarin, who's dealing with a neck injury this preseason and is a potential 2019 unrestricted free agent, is attainable outside the top 30 of most drafts. Scheifele (44.4) and Eichel (42.0) went much higher than their ADP. Four defensemen (Karlsson, Hedman, Burns, Byfuglien) went among the top 30 overall, in line with NHL.com's rankings. Kuznetsov went 10 spots lower than his NHL.com rank (26), providing great value on a line with Ovechkin under new coach Todd Reirden. Notable stacks included the same team taking Wheeler and Byfuglien from the Winnipeg Jets, and one team taking three Maple Leafs (Tavares, Matthews, Andersen) to start the draft. One team took care of its goalies in the first three rounds (Rinne, Holtby).


 
ROUND 4

37. Martin Jones (SJS - G)
38. Drew Doughty (LAK - D)
39. Filip Forsberg (NSH - LW)
40. Jonathan Quick (LAK - G) - PJ
41. Evander Kane (SJS - LW) - RR

42. Leon Draisaitl (EDM - C/RW)
43. Tuukka Rask (BOS - G)
44. Marc-Andre Fleury (VGK - G)
45. Brock Boeser (VAN - RW)
46. Aleksander Barkov (FLA - C)
47. Anze Kopitar (LAK - C)
48. Patrice Bergeron (BOS - C)

Analysis: After six goalies went in the first three rounds, four (Jones, Quick, Rask, Fleury) were selected in the fourth. Jones went 10 spots higher than the previous mock as a result of the Karlsson trade. Boeser went 13 spots higher than his NHL.com rank (58). Barkov, Kopitar and Bergeron falling to the end of the fourth round is another prime example of how deep the center position has become. It's worth noting Bergeron is dealing with a groin injury this preseason. Draisaitl, who's dual-eligible in Yahoo, went higher than his NHL.com rank (49). Kane and Karlsson provided an even-strength Sharks stack this round.

 

ROUND 5

49. Alexander Radulov (DAL - RW)
50. Mathew Barzal (NYI - C)
51. John Klingberg (DAL - D)
52. Shayne Gostisbehere (PHI - D)
53. John Gibson (ANA - G)
54. Jakub Voracek (PHI - RW)
55. Seth Jones (CBJ - D)
56. Matt Murray (PIT - G) - RR
57. P.K. Subban (NSH - D) - PJ

58. Joe Pavelski (SJS - C/RW)
59. Roman Josi (NSH - D)
60. Mikko Rantanen (COL - RW)

Analysis: Five defensemen were selected in the fifth round (Klingberg, Gostisbehere, Jones, Subban, Josi) after five were taken in the first four rounds combined. Four right wings were selected in this round (Radulov, Voracek, Pavelski, Rantanen). Klingberg was taken by the same team that reached for Benn in the first round, a high-end combination of players from the Dallas Stars' first power-play unit under new coach Jim Montgomery.


 
ROUND 6

61. Sebastian Aho (CAR - C/LW)
62. Rickard Rakell (ANA - LW/RW)
63. Carey Price (MTL - G)
64. Max Pacioretty (VGK - LW) - PJ
65. Kris Letang (PIT - D) - RR

66. Ben Bishop (DAL - G)
67. John Carlson (WSH - D)
68. Nicklas Backstrom (WSH - C)
69. Vincent Trocheck (FLA - C)
70. Clayton Keller (ARI - LW/RW)
71. Jonathan Marchessault (VGK - C/LW)
72. Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG - LW/RW)

Analysis: The Letang-Murray stack was obtained in the hope of each having a bounce-back season for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Price continues to go much higher than his NHL.com rank (133) but lower than his Yahoo ADP (48.1). Pacioretty and Marchessault went ahead of William Karlsson from the Vegas Golden Knights, surprising considering Karlsson is the only one of the three guaranteed to play with one of the others at even strength. Four players selected this round were the first from their respective teams (CAR, ANA, MTL, ARI).


 
ROUND 7

73. William Karlsson (VGK - C/LW)
74. Viktor Arvidsson (NSH - RW)
75. Gabriel Landeskog (COL - LW)
76. Rasmus Ristolainen (BUF - D)
77. Torey Krug (BOS - D)
78. Brayden Schenn (STL - C)
79. Dougie Hamilton (CAR - D)
80. Matthew Tkachuk (CGY - LW) - RR
81. Rasmus Dahlin (BUF - D) - PJ

82. Logan Couture (SJS - C/LW)
83. Devan Dubnyk (MIN - G)
84. Jake Allen (STL - G)

Analysis: Arvidsson was taken 12 spots higher than his NHL.com rank (86), which may be a reach considering he has been playing on the Nashville Predators' second line with Kyle Turris and Calle Jarnkrok. Ristolainen was selected ahead of the rookie Dahlin, likely a safer choice with the certainty of hits and first power-play usage. Landeskog was picked 14 spots higher than his NHL.com rank. Krug is still dealing with the ankle injury he sustained in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs.


 
ROUND 8

85. Matt Dumba (MIN - D)
86. Reilly Smith (VGK - LW/RW)
87. Wayne Simmonds (PHI - RW)
88. Antti Raanta (ARI - G) - PJ
89. Sean Monahan (CGY - C) - RR

90. William Nylander (TOR - C/RW)
91. Patric Hornqvist (PIT - RW)
92. Kyle Connor (WPG - LW)
93. Cam Talbot (EDM - G)
94. Tyson Barrie (COL - D)
95. Jonathan Huberdeau (FLA - LW)
96. Mikael Granlund (MIN - C/RW)

Analysis: There is a drop-off in stable No. 1 goalie options after the seventh round, meaning fantasy owners should try to fill their two spots at the position by that time. Monahan could be a huge bargain in this range compared to his NHL.com rank (67) and formed a power-play stack with Tkachuk. Smith went much earlier than NHL.com's rankings (132) and the previous mock, where he was the final pick (192). Nylander remains an unsigned restricted free agent. Dumba, fresh off a 50-point season with 136 hits, was the first Minnesota Wild skater taken, ahead of Granlund, Eric Staal and Ryan Suter.

Video: Dumba on re-signing with Wild, offseason preparations


 
ROUND 9

97. Zach Werenski (CBJ - D)
98. Alex Pietrangelo (STL - D)
99. Pierre-Luc Dubois (CBJ - C/LW)
100. Oliver Ekman-Larsson (ARI - D)
101. Jeff Skinner (BUF - LW)
102. Ilya Kovalchuk (LAK - LW/RW)
103. James van Riemsdyk (PHI - LW)
104. Ivan Provorov (PHI - D) - RR
105. Charlie McAvoy (BOS - D) - PJ

106. T.J. Oshie (WSH - RW)
107. Morgan Rielly (TOR - D)
108. Keith Yandle (FLA - D)

Analysis: Seven defensemen went in round nine after 18 were taken in the prior eight rounds combined. This range is where most fantasy owners start addressing their defensive depth. Dubois went much higher than his ADP (146.9) and marked the fifth Columbus Blue Jackets player among the top 100, surprising given the contract uncertainty of Panarin and Bobrovsky (potential 2019 UFAs). This is the lowest Kovalchuk (ADP: 77.8) has gone in any of NHL.com's four mock drafts. The same team that stacked three Maple Leafs players early also snagged Rielly, their top offensive defenseman.


 
ROUND 10

109. Mark Giordano (CGY - D)
110. Mike Hoffman (FLA - LW/RW)
111. Jeff Carter (LAK - C)
112. Teuvo Teravainen (CAR - LW/RW) - PJ
113. Aaron Ekblad (FLA - D) - RR

114. Mikhail Sergachev (TBL - D)
115. Jaden Schwartz (STL - LW)
116. Andrei Svechnikov (CAR - RW)
117. Alex DeBrincat (CHI - LW/RW)
118. Mike Smith (CGY - G)
119. Ryan Ellis (NSH - D)
120. Henrik Lundqvist (NYR - G)

Analysis: Carter, who went higher than his NHL.com rank (120), has been going later than this in many drafts. Svechnikov was the first rookie forward drafted but went much earlier than his ADP (154.4). There was a 25-pick gap between goalies (Talbot: 93; Smith: 118). Schwartz went higher than his NHL.com rank (142) but could play on the top line with Tarasenko and either Ryan O'Reilly or Schenn if healthy. Lundqvist (ADP: 103.9) went closer to his NHL.com rank (140) in this mock.


 
ROUND 11

121. Sean Couturier (PHI - C)
122. Ryan Suter (MIN - D)
123. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM - C/LW)
124. Roberto Luongo (FLA - G)
125. Yanni Gourde (TBL - C/RW)
126. Ryan Getzlaf (ANA - C)
127. Philipp Grubauer (COL - G)
128. Evgenii Dadonov (FLA - LW/RW) - RR
129. Sam Reinhart (BUF - C/RW) - PJ

130. Jake Muzzin (LAK - D)
131. Travis Konecny (PHI - LW/RW)
132. Jake Gardiner (TOR - D)

Analysis: Dadonov and Ekblad formed an even-strength Panthers stack. Four dual-eligible breakout candidates were selected this round (Nugent-Hopkins, Dadonov, Reinhart, Konecny). Gourde marked five players with position flexibility taken this round. Grubauer went ahead of Semyon Varlamov for the first time in NHL.com's four mock drafts and has the chance to win the starting job outright with Varlamov in a contract year (potential 2019 UFA). Getzlaf fell far below his already-low Yahoo ADP (79.8) and has been constantly slipping in drafts because of age (33) and injury concern.

 

ROUND 12

133. Brayden Point (TBL - C)
134. Erik Johnson (COL - D)
135. Kevin Shattenkirk (NYR - D)
136. Jake Guentzel (PIT - LW) - PJ
137. Corey Crawford (CHI - G) - RR

138. Brandon Montour (ANA - D)
139. Carter Hutton (BUF - G)
140. Elias Pettersson (VAN - C)
141. Jeff Petry (MTL - D)
142. Cam Atkinson (CBJ - RW)
143. Nick Leddy (NYI - D)
144. Will Butcher (NJD - D)

Analysis: Johnson (ADP: 151.0) and Petry (170.7) went higher than most drafts because they are hits-producing defensemen, but each faces team concerns this season. Crawford (concussion) is still uncertain for the start of the season. Point and Atkinson are top-100 caliber fantasy players that slip in many drafts. Guentzel, who covers hits and plays on the top line with Crosby, went much later than his ADP (113.1). Pettersson's preseason performance for the Vancouver Canucks has reflected in this mock, where he went higher than in any previous draft.


 
ROUND 13

145. Tyler Toffoli (LAK - RW)
146. Eric Staal (MIN - C)
147. Chris Kreider (NYR - LW)
148. Ryan O'Reilly (STL - C)
149. Jonathan Drouin (MTL - C)
150. Oscar Klefbom (EDM - D)
151. Nico Hischier (NJD - C)
152. Semyon Varlamov (COL - G) - RR
153. Shea Theodore (VGK - D) - PJ

154. Justin Faulk (CAR - D)
155. Jason Zucker (MIN - LW/RW)
156. Colton Parayko (STL - D)

Analysis: Theodore is usually attainable outside the top 150 and could benefit from the addition of Pacioretty and also the 20-game suspension of Nate Schmidt. His contract situation is also no longer a concern after he signed a seven-year deal. Drouin shouldn't go nearly this high after losing dual eligibility and with center-only players like Hischier, Jonathan Toews, Dylan Larkin and Ryan Johansen still out there. The same goes for Klefbom and Faulk, who face lineup uncertainty for fringe playoff teams.


 
ROUND 14

157. Tom Wilson (WSH - RW)
158. Mark Stone (OTT - RW)
159. Ryan Pulock (NYI - D)
160. Miro Heiskanen (DAL - D) - PJ
161. Kevin Fiala (NSH - LW/RW) - RR

162. Jonathan Toews (CHI - C)
163. Kyle Palmieri (NJD - RW)
164. James Neal (CGY - RW)
165. Dylan Larkin (Det - C)
166. J.T. Miller (TBL - C/RW)
167. Brendan Gallagher (MTL - RW)
168. Alex Galchenyuk (ARI - C/LW)

Analysis: Miller, who's dual-eligible, a hits producer and the top candidate to play on a line with Kucherov and Stamkos, is a potential steal this late in drafts from the Tampa Bay Lightning. Galchenyuk is dealing with a lower-body injury this preseason. Neal has skated with Gaudreau and Monahan at times this preseason. Toews has skated with DeBrincat for the Chicago Blackhawks this preseason, presenting the chance for renewed fantasy value. Fiala has been with Forsberg and Johansen on the top line for the Predators, giving him deep sleeper potential. Heiskanen appears likely to make the Stars roster and has late-round appeal on a potential pair with Klingberg.


 
ROUND 15

169. Robin Lehner (NYI - G)
170. Anthony Mantha (Det - LW/RW)
171. Pavel Buchnevich (NYR - RW)
172. Thomas Chabot (OTT - D)
173. Duncan Keith (CHI - D)
174. Cam Fowler (ANA - D)
175. Nino Niederreiter (MIN - LW/RW)
176. Tomas Hertl (SJS - C/LW/RW) - RR
177. Ryan Johansen (NSH - C) - PJ

178. Jake DeBrusk (BOS - LW)
179. Colin Miller (VGK - D)
180. Timo Meier (SJS - LW)

Analysis: Chabot was drafted in this 12-team mock because he will get the bulk of the power-play time after the Karlsson trade. Johansen, attainable in the later rounds of most drafts (144.7), was stacked by the same team that drafted Subban earlier. Hertl, the only tri-eligible player in Yahoo to start the season, was stacked with Karlsson and Kane.


 
ROUND 16

181. Joe Thornton (SJS - C)
182. Matt Duchene (OTT - C)
183. Darnell Nurse (EDM - D)
184. Petr Mrazek (CAR - G) - PJ
185. Mika Zibanejad (NYR - C) - RR

186. Oliver Bjorkstrand (CBJ - RW)
187. Anders Lee (NYI - LW)
188. Mike Green (Det - D)
189. Brian Elliott (PHI - G)
190. Nikita Zadorov (COL - D)
191. Cory Schneider (NJD - G)
192. Marc-Edouard Vlasic (SJS - D)

Analysis: Thornton, who's healthy this preseason, has been skating on a line with Pavelski and Kane and provides plenty of scoring upside in the final round of any draft. Duchene, Zibanejad and Lee are top-liners from questionable teams but could return value this late. Green (fatigue) is uncertain for opening night. Schneider (hip surgery) has been slipping in drafts because of injury concern but is traveling with the New Jersey Devils for the NHL Global Series. Vlasic, who could be paired with Karlsson in San Jose, is worth a flier in the final rounds.

 

[RELATED: Fantasy mock draft 3.0 for 2018-19]

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