Fantasy trends: Underachieving players poised for strong finish

Each week, NHL.com will identify fantasy-relevant developments from the past week based on injuries, lineup changes and production trends. This week, we look at underachieving players who have missed no more than five games this season and are in position to rebound down the stretch.

Nicklas Backstrom, C, WSH
Yahoo preseason ADP: 20.7; current rank: 105
The Washington Capitals center has the lowest points-per-game average (0.80) and assists-per-game average (0.54) of his 11-season NHL career. He has spent significant time on a line separate from Alex Ovechkin (4th in Yahoo) but has six points (four goals, two assists) in five games since reuniting with his longtime linemate. If Backstrom sticks with Ovechkin, his career totals in February through April (294 points in 290 games) indicate he could produce at a point-per-game rate or better and easily finish among the top 50 in Yahoo.

Ryan Johansen, C, NSH
Yahoo preseason ADP: 100.1; current rank: 127
The Nashville Predators center had to play 14 games without elite linemate Filip Forsberg (78th in Yahoo), who missed time because of an upper-body injury and a three-game suspension. Johansen has seven points (one goal, six assists) in the past five games that Forsberg has been in the lineup and on his line. The health of Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson is crucial to Johansen's bounce back, but it's encouraging that the center's 5-on-5 points-per-60 average (1.59) is nearly in line with his rate from last season (1.62), according to Corsica Hockey.
Jeff Skinner, LW, CAR
Yahoo preseason ADP: 85.5; current rank: 134
The Carolina Hurricanes left wing has seen his goal scoring (0.32 per game) dip significantly compared to last season (0.47), and it hasn't helped that he's played mostly on the third line. Last season, he was tied for second in even-strength goals (30) with Sidney Crosby and Vladimir Tarasenko behind Auston Matthews (32), but playing often with veteran Justin Williams has not helped Skinner's fantasy value. Skinner (68 percent owned in Yahoo) has five points (four goals, one assist) in his past five games and his shot attempts ratio (plus-162, 15th among forwards) is much better than last season (plus-53, 124th), suggesting more room for improvement over the final 23 games.

Jake Guentzel, C/LW, PIT
Yahoo preseason ADP: 104.6; current rank: 201
The Pittsburgh Penguins forward thrived on a line with Sidney Crosby as a rookie last regular season and during the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs but has been stuck on the third line for much of his second season. His regular-season points-per-game average (0.51; 0.82 last season) and shooting percentage (13.7, 19.8) have drastically dropped as a result. The good news is that Guentzel (59 percent in Yahoo) is playing significant time on the top power-play unit lately with Patric Hornqvist (lower body) week to week. Guentzel had two goals, one on the power play, against the Ottawa Senators on Tuesday and played 5:01 with the man-advantage against the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday. He has 11 power-play points in 59 games despite playing more frequently on the second unit and ranks fourth on the Penguins in PPP per 60 (5.38) behind Phil Kessel (8.28), Evgeni Malkin (8.21) and Crosby (7.5), according to Corsica Hockey.
Erik Karlsson, D, OTT
Yahoo preseason ADP: 18.3; current rank: 208
The Ottawa Senators defenseman has taken a step back because of his team's regression, but his individual 5-on-5 shot attempts ratio (plus-73) and shot attempts relative percentage (7.61) are drastically better than last season (minus-15, 2.14 percent). He ranks seventh among defensemen in points per game (0.76) compared to second last season (0.92) behind Brent Burns (0.93). Karlsson missed Ottawa's first five games in his recovery from offseason foot surgery and had an NHL career-long 10-game point drought from Nov. 16 to Dec. 6, but his low shooting percentage should eventually revert closer to his career average (6.8; 7.8 last season). He has 14 points (two goals, 12 assists) in 18 games since Jan. 5 and his SOG (2.71) and assists-per-game (0.67) averages are nearly in line with last season (2.83; 0.70). Don't be surprised if he makes his strongest push of the season over the final 26 games.

Jake Allen, G, STL
Yahoo preseason ADP: 34.1; current rank: 256
The St. Louis Blues goaltender has been outperformed by backup Carter Hutton (10th in Yahoo), who leads the NHL in save percentage (.940) through 26 games (22 starts). But Allen started for the third time in four games against the Dallas Stars on Friday, stopping 14 of 16 shots faced in a 2-1 loss. Hutton allowed four goals on 33 shots (.879 SV%) faced against the Nashville Predators on Tuesday, and St. Louis could make a full-time switch back to Allen at any time. Allen is 24-4-4 with a .928 SV% and five shutouts in 31 games in March and 8-4-0 with a .929 SV% in 13 games in April. If he posts similar numbers over the final 22 games, he could feasibly rejoin the top 10 fantasy goaltenders.
Injury bounce-back candidates for rest of season: Justin Schultz, PIT; Bo Horvat, VAN; Alexander Steen, STL; Zach Parise, MIN