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Fantasy mock draft 3.0 analysis for 2018-19

Tavares, MacKinnon fall to second round; trade boosts Pacioretty at scarce position; Bobrovsky goes No. 2 among goalies

by Fantasy Hockey Staff @NHLFantasy / NHL.com

NHL.com has conducted its annual fantasy hockey staff mock draft with 12 teams, 16 players per team and standard categories. Participants included Pete Jensen, Rob Reese, David Satriano, Mike Morreale, Mike Battaglino, Brett Amadon and correspondent James Harding from NHL.com, Sebastien Deschambault, Nicolas Ducharme and Hugues Marcil from LNH.com, Scott Pianowski from Yahoo and Nick Alberga from SiriusXM NHL Network Radio.

Using various draft strategies and NHL.com's top 250 consensus rankings, the writers simulated a draft where every fantasy owner is well-researched and aware of lineups, prospects and other trends. For more fantasy coverage, visit NHL.com/Fantasy.

 

FANTASY COVERAGE: Top 250 ranks | Yahoo position updates for 2018-19 | Cheat sheet

 

NOTES: This was a non-keeper mock draft with standard categories (goals, assists, plus/minus, power-play points, shots on goal and hits for skaters; wins, goals-against average, save percentage and shutouts for goalies). Roster configuration: two centers, two left wings, two right wings, four defensemen, two goalies and four bench spots. Positions indicate Yahoo eligibility for 2018-19. In addition to any current restricted free agents (RFA), potential 2019 unrestricted free agents (*) or RFAs (**) are also noted below. INJ. indicates players with injury concerns.

 

ROUND 1

1. Connor McDavid, C, EDM (Team 1 - Reese)

2. Nikita Kucherov, RW, TBL (Team 2 - Alberga)

3. Alex Ovechkin, LW, WSH (Team 3 - Morreale)

4. Sidney Crosby, C, PIT (Team 4 - Pianowski)

5. Jamie Benn, C/LW, DAL (Team 5 - Jensen)

6. Claude Giroux, C/LW, PHI (Team 6 - Ducharme)

7. Brad Marchand, LW, BOS (Team 7 - Battaglino)

8. Patrik Laine, RW, WPG** (Team 8 - Harding)

9. Evgeni Malkin, C, PIT (Team 9 - Amadon)

10. Auston Matthews, C, TOR** (Team 10 - Marcil)

11. Tyler Seguin, C, DAL (Team 11 - Deschambault)

12. David Pastrnak, RW, BOS (Team 12 - Satriano)

Analysis: Kucherov went ahead of Ovechkin, who's ranked No. 2 in NHL.com's consensus rankings and went first in the previous mock. Benn and Giroux, each dual-eligible, went higher than their NHL.com rank. Marchand, tied for fourth in points per game last season (1.25; minimum 65 games), also went higher than his consensus rank because of exposure to the best first line in the NHL. Teams with multiple players in the first round were the Pittsburgh Penguins (Crosby, Malkin), Boston Bruins (Marchand, Pastrnak) and Dallas Stars (Benn, Seguin) -- not the Toronto Maple Leafs (like in NHL.com's first two mock drafts). No defensemen or goalies were taken in the first round.

 

ROUND 2

13. Steven Stamkos, C, TBL (Team 12 - Satriano)

14. Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, TBL (Team 11 - Deschambault)

15. Nathan MacKinnon, C, COL (Team 10 - Marcil)

16. Taylor Hall, LW, NJD (Team 9 - Amadon)

17. John Tavares, C, TOR (Team 8 - Harding)

18. Victor Hedman, D, TBL (Team 7 - Battaglino)

19. Sergei Bobrovsky, G, CBJ* (Team 6 - Ducharme)

20. Blake Wheeler, C/RW, WPG (Team 5 - Jensen)

21. Patrick Kane, RW, CHI (Team 4 - Pianowski)

22. Connor Hellebuyck, G, WPG (Team 3 - Morreale)

23. Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, STL - INJ. (Team 2 - Alberga)

24. Braden Holtby, G, WSH (Team 1 - Reese)

Analysis: MacKinnon (15th) and Tavares (17th) are potential steals if available in the second round. This was by far the lowest Tavares was taken of NHL.com's three mock drafts this offseason. Bobrovsky was the second goalie selected behind Vasilevskiy and ahead of Hellebuyck. Holtby marked four goalies taken in the second round. Kane, seventh in Yahoo's pre-ranks, was taken near the end of the second round. Hedman was the first and only defenseman taken in the first two rounds.

Video: Jensen on fantasy values of Tavares, van Riemsdyk

 

ROUND 3

25. Mitchell Marner, RW, TOR** (Team 1 - Reese)

26. Mark Scheifele, C, WPG (Team 2 - Alberga)

27. Dustin Byfuglien, D, WPG (Team 3 - Morreale)

28. Johnny Gaudreau, LW, CGY (Team 4 - Pianowski)

29. Brent Burns, D, SJS (Team 5 - Jensen)

30. Erik Karlsson, D, SJS* (Team 6 - Ducharme)

31. Jack Eichel, C, BUF (Team 7 - Battaglino)

32. Pekka Rinne, G, NSH* (Team 8 - Harding)

33. Aleksander Barkov, C, FLA (Team 9 - Amadon)

34. Frederik Andersen, G, TOR (Team 10 - Marcil)

35. Filip Forsberg, LW, NSH (Team 11 - Deschambault)

36. Jonathan Quick, G, LAK (Team 12 - Satriano)

Analysis: Considering Byfuglien's Yahoo average draft position (39.4), it was surprising to see him taken ahead of Burns. But Team 3 secured a safe Winnipeg Jets stack of Hellebuyck and Byfuglien. Rinne (32) went closer to his NHL.com rank (43) than his ADP (18.4). Half of the teams drafted a goalie in the first three rounds. Three elite centers went much higher than their ADP: Eichel (41.9), Scheifele (44.8) and Barkov (51.3). This mock draft took place before Karlsson was traded to the San Jose Sharks. Karlsson will likely be targeted in the first round of most drafts.

 

ROUND 4

37. Tuukka Rask, G, BOS (Team 12 - Satriano)

38. Phil Kessel, RW, PIT (Team 11 - Deschambault)

39. Drew Doughty, D, LAK (Team 10 - Marcil)

40. John Klingberg, D, DAL (Team 9 - Amadon)

41. Evgeny Kuznetsov, C, WSH (Team 8 - Harding)

42. Artemi Panarin, LW, CBJ* (Team 7 - Battaglino)

43. Jakub Voracek, RW, PHI (Team 6 - Ducharme)

44. Marc-Andre Fleury, G, VGK (Team 5 - Jensen)

45. Evander Kane, LW, SJS (Team 4 - Pianowski)

46. Anze Kopitar, C, LAK (Team 3 - Morreale)

47. Martin Jones, G, SJS (Team 2 - Alberga)

48. Seth Jones, D, CBJ (Team 1 - Reese)

Analysis: It was the third straight round in which three goalies were selected. Kuznetsov (22nd) and Kopitar (30th) went much lower than their NHL.com rank, and Klingberg went much higher (54th). Voracek was drafted by the same team that chose Giroux in the first round to form a Philadelphia Flyers' power play stack.

 

ROUND 5

49. Patrice Bergeron, C, BOS - INJ. (Team 1 - Reese)

50. Leon Draisaitl, C/RW, EDM (Team 2 - Alberga)

51. P.K. Subban, D, NSH (Team 3 - Morreale)

52. John Gibson, G, ANA (Team 4 - Pianowski)

53. Matt Murray, G, PIT (Team 5 - Jensen)

54. John Carlson, D, WSH (Team 6 - Ducharme)

55. Brock Boeser, RW, VAN - INJ.** (Team 7 - Battaglino)

56. Roman Josi, D, NSH (Team 8 - Harding)

57. Mikko Rantanen, RW, COL** (Team 9 - Amadon)

58. Devan Dubnyk, G, MIN (Team 10 - Marcil)

59. Shayne Gostisbehere, D, PHI (Team 11 - Deschambault)

60. Kris Letang, D, PIT (Team 12 - Satriano)

Analysis: Team 5 was the first to select two goalies (Fleury, Murray). Bergeron was selected much lower than his NHL.com rank (32) and Rantanen was taken one round higher (70). Three defensemen were taken much higher than their NHL.com rank: Carlson (69; ADP: 82.2), Gostisbehere (77; ADP: 69.4) and Letang (73; ADP: 79.0).

 

ROUND 6

61. Max Pacioretty, LW, VGK (Team 12 - Satriano)

62. Jake Allen, G, STL - INJ. (Team 11 - Deschambault)

63. Dougie Hamilton, D, CAR (Team 10 - Marcil)

64. Ivan Provorov, D, PHI** (Team 9 - Amadon)

65. Mathew Barzal, C, NYI (Team 8 - Harding)

66. Rickard Rakell, LW/RW, ANA (Team 7 - Battaglino)

67. Ben Bishop, G, DAL - INJ. (Team 6 - Ducharme)

68. Ilya Kovalchuk, LW/RW, LAK (Team 5 - Jensen)

69. Jonathan Marchessault, C/LW, VGK (Team 4 - Pianowski)

70. Nicklas Backstrom, C, WSH (Team 3 - Morreale)

71. Rasmus Dahlin, D, BUF (Team 2 - Alberga)

72. Clayton Keller, LW/RW, ARI (Team 1 - Reese)

Analysis: Pacioretty went with the first pick of the sixth round, considerably higher than his ADP (108.2), after being traded to the Vegas Golden Knights. Provorov was selected nearly 50 spots higher than his ADP (113.4). Dahlin, the first rookie taken in the mock, went much higher than his NHL.com rank (92). Barzal was taken by the same team that drafted Tavares, but that team also selected Kuznetsov earlier, marking three high-end but single-eligible centers to fill two starting slots at the position (one for bench). Team 3 stacked Ovechkin and Backstrom, who play together on the Washington Capitals' first power play.

 

ROUND 7

73. Antti Raanta, G, ARI (Team 1 - Reese)

74. Nikolaj Ehlers, LW/RW, WPG (Team 2 - Alberga)

75. William Karlsson, C/LW, VGK** (Team 3 - Morreale)

76. Torey Krug, D, BOS - INJ. (Team 4 - Pianowski)

77. Joe Pavelski, C/RW, SJS* (Team 5 - Jensen)

78. Morgan Rielly, D, TOR (Team 6 - Ducharme)

79. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D, ARI (Team 7 - Battaglino)

80. Logan Couture, C/LW, SJS (Team 8 - Harding)

81. Charlie McAvoy, D, BOS** (Team 9 - Amadon)

82. Sebastian Aho, C/LW, CAR** (Team 10 - Marcil)

83. Patric Hornqvist, RW, PIT (Team 11 - Deschambault)

84. Brayden Schenn, C, STL (Team 12 - Satriano)

Analysis: Raanta was picked much higher than his ADP (133.7), forming an intriguing Arizona Coyotes stack with Keller. Pavelski was obtained much later than his NHL.com rank (46) and ADP (50), forming a power-play duo with Burns. Karlsson also went lower than his rank (56) and ADP (63.1) despite the security of playing with either Marchessault or Pacioretty on the Golden Knights' top line and first power play. Rielly (105.2) and McAvoy (110.4) went two rounds higher than their ADP. Five dual-eligible players were taken this round, the most of any round in this mock.

 

ROUND 8

85. Keith Yandle, D, FLA (Team 12 - Satriano)

86. James van Riemsdyk, LW, PHI (Team 11 - Deschambault)

87. Jonathan Huberdeau, LW, FLA (Team 10 - Marcil)

88. Matthew Tkachuk, LW, CGY** (Team 9 - Amadon)

89. Alexander Radulov, RW, DAL (Team 8 - Harding)

90. Carey Price, G, MTL (Team 7 - Battaglino)

91. Vincent Trocheck, C, FLA (Team 6 - Ducharme)

92. Mark Giordano, D, CGY (Team 5 - Jensen)

93. Cam Talbot, G, EDM* (Team 4 - Pianowski)

94. Wayne Simmonds, RW, PHI - INJ.* (Team 3 - Morreale)

95. Sean Monahan, C, CGY (Team 2 - Alberga)

96. Gabriel Landeskog, LW, COL (Team 1 - Reese)

Analysis: Four LW-only players were taken this round after a total of eight went in the first seven rounds. Price, who comes with team concerns but was available much later than his ADP (47.1), was selected as the No. 1 goalie for Team 7. Radulov slipped much lower than his ADP (54.4) despite playing on the top line and first power play with Benn and Seguin for much of last season. Three hits specialists (Trocheck, Simmonds, Landeskog) went late in the eighth round.

Video: WPG@MTL: Price honored by fans in 557th game as Hab

 

ROUND 9

97. Matt Dumba, D, MIN (Team 1 - Reese)

98. Jake Guentzel, LW, PIT** (Team 2 - Alberga)

99. Zach Werenski, D, CBJ - INJ.** (Team 3 - Morreale)

100. Alex Pietrangelo, D, STL (Team 4 - Pianowski)

101. Tyson Barrie, D, COL (Team 5 - Jensen)

102. Kyle Connor, LW, WPG** (Team 6 - Ducharme)

103. Ryan Getzlaf, C, ANA (Team 7 - Battaglino)

104. Corey Crawford, G, CHI - INJ. (Team 8 - Harding)

105. Semyon Varlamov, G, COL* (Team 9 - Amadon)

106. Mikael Granlund, C/RW, MIN (Team 10 - Marcil)

107. Rasmus Ristolainen, D, BUF (Team 11 - Deschambault)

108. Mike Hoffman, LW/RW, FLA (Team 12 - Satriano)

Analysis: Barrie marked the 25th defenseman taken among the top 101 overall. Varlamov was selected as the No. 1 goalie by Team 9, a risky option given his recent injury history, contract status (potential 2019 UFA) and considering the Colorado Avalanche acquired Philipp Grubauer this offseason. Getzlaf is a potential bargain who went much lower than his NHL.com rank (49) because of the abundance of centers, his age (33) and injury concerns.

 

ROUND 10

109. William Nylander, C/RW, TOR - RFA (Team 12 - Satriano)

110. Brayden Point, C, TBL** (Team 11 - Deschambault)

111. Mikhail Sergachev, D, TBL (Team 10 - Marcil)

112. Ryan O'Reilly, C, STL (Team 9 - Amadon)

113. Jeff Skinner, LW, BUF* (Team 8 - Harding)

114. Ryan Johansen, C, NSH (Team 7 - Battaglino)

115. Shea Theodore, D, VGK - RFA (Team 6 - Ducharme)

116. Ryan Ellis, D, NSH (Team 5 - Jensen)

117. Aaron Ekblad, D, FLA (Team 4 - Pianowski)

118. Mike Smith, G, CGY* (Team 3 - Morreale)

119. Roberto Luongo, G, FLA (Team 2 - Alberga)

120. Viktor Arvidsson, RW, NSH (Team 1 - Reese)

Analysis: Nylander was selected much lower than his NHL.com rank (80) and ADP (81.5). O'Reilly went significantly higher than his rank (135) and ADP (155.3), with Team 9 reaching for him because he's expected to start on a line with Tarasenko after being acquired by the St. Louis Blues. Theodore was also picked early (ADP: 158.2) but is a potential beneficiary of the Pacioretty trade. Arvidsson was selected 40 spots lower than his ADP (73.4), considerable value for a top-line player with 61 points and at least 246 SOG in back-to-back seasons.

 

ROUND 11

121. Jake Gardiner, D, TOR* (Team 1 - Reese)

122. Ryan Suter, D, MIN - INJ. (Team 2 - Alberga)

123. Cam Atkinson, RW, CBJ (Team 3 - Morreale)

124. Teuvo Teravainen, LW/RW, CAR** (Team 4 - Pianowski)

125. Eric Staal, C, MIN* (Team 5 - Jensen)

126. J.T. Miller, C/RW, TBL (Team 6 - Ducharme)

127. Henrik Lundqvist, G, NYR (Team 7 - Battaglino)

128. Ryan Pulock, D, NYI (Team 8 - Harding)

129. Andrei Svechnikov, RW, CAR (Team 9 - Amadon)

130. Alex DeBrincat, LW/RW, CHI (Team 10 - Marcil)

131. Jake Muzzin, D, LAK (Team 11 - Deschambault)

132. Anders Lee, LW, NYI* (Team 12 - Satriano)

Analysis: Team 7 selected Lundqvist as its No. 2 goalie option behind Carey Price. Lundqvist, like Price, is available much later than previous years but faces team concerns during a rebuild. Staal is a potential bargain at 125th overall; he's entering a contract year (potential 2019 UFA), coming off a 42-goal season and could have a healthy Nino Niederreiter on his side. Svechnikov was the second rookie selected and went near his NHL.com rank (136). Because of the run on defensemen earlier, Pulock went much higher than his ADP (140.7) with a higher ceiling under new coach Barry Trotz.

 

ROUND 12

133. Kevin Shattenkirk, D, NYR (Team 12 - Satriano)

134. Jeff Carter, C, LAK (Team 11 - Deschambault)

135. Brandon Montour, D, ANA (Team 10 - Marcil)

136. Pierre-Luc Dubois, C/LW, CBJ (Team 9 - Amadon)

137. Will Butcher, D, NJD** (Team 8 - Harding)

138. Duncan Keith, D, CHI (Team 7 - Battaglino)

139. Jaden Schwartz, LW, STL (Team 6 - Ducharme)

140. Sean Couturier, C, PHI - INJ. (Team 5 - Jensen)

141. T.J. Oshie, RW, WSH (Team 4 - Pianowski)

142. Colton Parayko, D, STL (Team 3 - Morreale)

143. Mark Stone, RW, OTT* (Team 2 - Alberga)

144. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C/LW, EDM (Team 1 - Reese)

Analysis: Nugent-Hopkins was selected much later than his NHL.com rank (122) and forms a high-ceiling stack with McDavid for Team 1. Couturier's low ADP in the mock and Yahoo (132.8) come as a surprise after his breakout season (76 points, plus-34) on a line with Giroux. Shattenkirk went much earlier than his NHL.com rank (182) but could be a power-play specialist on the New York Rangers' first unit.

 

ROUND 13

145. Elias Pettersson, C, VAN (Team 1 - Reese)

146. Miro Heiskanen, D, DAL (Team 2 - Alberga)

147. Nico Hischier, C, NJD (Team 3 - Morreale)

148. Josh Manson, D, ANA (Team 4 - Pianowski)

149. Sam Reinhart, C/RW, BUF (Team 5 - Jensen)

150. Dylan Larkin, C, DET (Team 6 - Ducharme)

151. Alex Galchenyuk, C/LW, ARI (Team 7 - Battaglino)

152. Carter Hutton, G, BUF (Team 8 - Harding)

153. Cory Schneider, G, NJD - INJ. (Team 9 - Amadon)

154. Casey Mittelstadt, C, BUF (Team 10 - Marcil)

155. Travis Konecny, LW/RW, PHI** (Team 11 - Deschambault)

156. Tomas Hertl, C/LW/RW, SJS (Team 12 - Satriano)

Analysis: Three rookies (Pettersson, Heiskanen, Mittelstadt) were selected this round. Hutton was taken by Team 8 as a third goalie. Team 9 selected Schneider as its No. 2 goalie option behind Varlamov, a high-risk/reward strategy because of injury concerns and existing timeshares. Hertl, the only tri-eligible player currently in Yahoo, was selected by Team 12.

 

ROUND 14

157. Erik Johnson, D, COL (Team 12 - Satriano)

158. Evgenii Dadonov, LW/RW, FLA (Team 11 - Deschambault)

159. Anthony Mantha, LW/RW, DET (Team 10 - Marcil)

160. Nikita Zadorov, D, COL** (Team 9 - Amadon)

161. Filip Zadina, LW, DET (Team 8 - Harding)

162. Mike Green, D, DET (Team 7 - Battaglino)

163. Bo Horvat, C, VAN (Team 6 - Ducharme)

164. Matt Duchene, C, OTT* (Team 5 - Jensen)

165. Jonathan Toews, C, CHI (Team 4 - Pianowski)

166. Tom Wilson, RW, WSH (Team 3 - Morreale)

167. Philipp Grubauer, G, COL (Team 2 - Alberga)

168. Sami Vatanen, D, NJD (Team 1 - Reese)

Analysis: Team 2 took Grubauer as a standalone third goalie with breakout potential if he emerges from the competition with Varlamov. Zadina was selected around his NHL.com rank (166) and is a great option to fill a coveted left wing slot late in drafts. Wilson was selected lower than his NHL.com rank (139) and is a late-round option that produces hits (2.9 per game in NHL career) and plays on a line with Ovechkin and Kuznetsov. Zadorov was selected much higher than his NHL.com rank (220) but also covers hits (2.9 per game in NHL career).

 

ROUND 15

169. Nazem Kadri, C, TOR (Team 1 - Reese)

170. Tyler Myers, D, WPG* (Team 2 - Alberga)

171. Nolan Patrick, C, PHI (Team 3 - Morreale)

172. Mattias Ekholm, D, NSH (Team 4 - Pianowski)

173. Nino Niederreiter, LW/RW, MIN (Team 5 - Jensen)

174. Jason Zucker, LW/RW, MIN (Team 6 - Ducharme)

175. James Neal, RW, CGY (Team 7 - Battaglino)

176. Jeff Petry, D, MTL (Team 8 - Harding)

177. Tyler Toffoli, RW, LAK (Team 9 - Amadon)

178. Jonathan Drouin, C, MTL (Team 10 - Marcil)

179. Nick Leddy, D, NYI (Team 11 - Deschambault)

180. Juuse Saros, G, NSH (Team 12 - Satriano)

Analysis: Saros was Team 12's third goalie as a standalone deep sleeper in case he cuts into the workload of Rinne (potential 2019 UFA). Dual-eligible forwards Zucker and Niederreiter, who play in the Minnesota Wild's top six, went back-to-back this round. Kadri, who fell far below his NHL.com rank (119), provides late-round exposure to the Toronto Maple Leafs, where he could play with Matthews and/or Tavares on the power play.

 

ROUND 16

181. Darnell Nurse, D, EDM (Team 12 - Satriano)

182. Brendan Gallagher, RW, MTL (Team 11 - Deschambault)

183. Esa Lindell, D, DAL** (Team 10 - Marcil)

184. Brady Tkachuk, LW, OTT (Team 9 - Amadon)

185. Zach Hyman, LW, TOR (Team 8 - Harding)

186. Robin Lehner, G, NYI* (Team 7 - Battaglino)

187. Anthony Beauvillier, C/LW, NYI** (Team 6 - Ducharme)

188. Chris Kreider, LW, NYR (Team 5 - Jensen)

189. Jake DeBrusk, LW, BOS (Team 4 - Pianowski)

190. Kyle Palmieri, RW, NJD (Team 3 - Morreale)

191. Brandon Saad, LW, CHI (Team 2 - Alberga)

192. Reilly Smith, LW/RW, VGK (Team 1 - Reese)

Analysis: Hyman was selected by Team 8, who also has Tavares, providing exposure to Toronto's projected top line. Lehner was the final goalie selected in the mock draft and the third player at the position for Team 7. Three Montreal Canadiens were taken in a seven-pick span after only one (Price) was taken earlier in the draft. Smith was taken 71 spots lower than his ADP, a big surprise considering he finished 86th in Yahoo last season on one of the best even-strength lines with Marchessault and Karlsson. Tkachuk was the seventh and final rookie selected in the mock and was drafted by Team 9, who also took his brother, Matthew Tkachuk.

 

Highest-ranked players by NHL.com who went undrafted: Dustin Brown, RW, LAK (INJ.); Mika Zibanejad, C, NYR; Jordan Eberle, RW, NYI*; Pavel Buchnevich, RW, NYR**; Yanni Gourde, C/RW, TBL*; Jack Roslovic, C, WPG; Patrick Marleau, C/LW, TOR; Nick Bjugstad, C/RW, FLA; Kevin Fiala, LW/RW, NSH**; Jakub Vrana, LW/RW, WSH**

 

[RELATED: Fantasy mock draft 2.0 for 2018-19]

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