Mailbag: Sleeper teams in Qualifying Round, future of Eichel with Sabres

Here is the June 3 edition of Dan Rosen's weekly mailbag. If you have a question, tweet it to @drosennhl and use #OvertheBoards.

Who are your biggest [sleeper] teams among the 24 teams (to compete for the Stanley Cup) when it finally happens? -- @KevinZukerman

The Winnipeg Jets and the Florida Panthers. The reasons: Connor Hellebuyck and Sergei Bobrovsky.

The Jets, with Hellebuyck as their goalie, are the No. 9 seed in the Western Conference Qualifying Round and will play the Calgary Flames. The Panthers, with Bobrovsky as their goalie, are the No. 10 seed in the Eastern Conference Qualifying Round and will play the New York Islanders. Hellebuyck and Bobrovsky are steal-a-series goalies, in my opinion. And if they're able to get their game back quickly, their teammates will follow.

The Jets overachieved this season. Their near-complete overhaul at defenseman could have been their undoing. Instead, they mixed and matched and managed to put it together largely because Hellebuyck was so good (31-21-5, 2.57 goals-against average, .922 save percentage, six shutouts in 58 games) and they have a strong offense (3.00 goals per game). That could be enough for Winnipeg to get rolling early in the best-of-5 qualifying round, eliminate the Flames, and bring that positive feeling into the Stanley Cup Playoffs against whoever they face. The Jets have been knocking on the door since 2018, when they reached the Western Conference Final. Maybe they'll knock it down when people least expect them to.

The Panthers underachieved this season. They had the firepower, the defense and the goaltending to contend with the Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning for first place in the Atlantic Division. Instead, they were a bubble team, three points out of the second wild card into the playoffs from the East when the season was paused March 12 due to concerns surrounding the coronavirus. To simplify it, I think their struggles were largely a result of Bobrovsky's struggles. He was 23-19-6 with a 3.23 GAA, .900 save percentage and one shutout in 50 games. The pause gave him a chance at a fresh start, just as it does for the Panthers. Bobrovsky proved last season he can be a clutch playoff goalie, when he was 6-4-0 with a 2.41 GAA and .925 save percentage in 10 games with the Columbus Blue Jackets. If he plays like he can, the Panthers will gain confidence in their push-the-pace and push-the-puck style under coach Joel Quenneville, who has the experience and championship pedigree to push the Panthers deep.

What is Jack Eichel worth and do you think any of the non-playoff teams would inquire about a possible trade? -- @Droscaidh

It's hard to quantify Eichel's worth when I don't feel he's on the trading block. It would take a lot to get the 23-year-old center, as in high draft picks, top prospects and at least one key NHL player. And why would the Buffalo Sabres, if they were even considering trading Eichel, limit themselves to the six other teams that aren't part of the NHL Return to Play Plan? That makes no sense. If they even want to think about moving Eichel, who was the No. 2 pick in the 2015 NHL Draft, behind Connor McDavid to the Edmonton Oilers, they need to open the bidding to all 30 teams that could inquire. But to your question, surely the teams that aren't returning to play -- the New Jersey Devils, Detroit Red Wings, Ottawa Senators, Los Angeles Kings, Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks -- should ask about Eichel's availability. And, surely, Sabres general manager Jason Botterill should tell them to make an offer if they feel it's worth their time. It also makes zero sense for the Sabres to tell teams, "Forget about it." I know they feel Eichel is a huge part of the solution, but it doesn't cost anything to hear what other teams feel he's worth to them. In the end, I fully expect Eichel to be back with the Sabres. He's frustrated and voiced that last week, but the Sabres have to work with him and build around him.

What is next for Steve Yzerman? The Red Wings GM has a lot on his plate. Do you see him moving any pieces this offseason? How does he address the open captaincy and inconsistency between the pipes? -- @theashcity

There's a lot to unpack for Yzerman, but a significant part of what he needs to do with the Red Wings has been in motion since before he took over on April 19, 2019. They have prospects, including forward Filip Zadina and defenseman Moritz Seider, who have to develop. But it can't be forced development. It takes time. The Red Wings are in a rebuild, which gives them the time to develop their young players. Zadina (20; No. 6, 2018 NHL Draft) and Seider (19; No. 6, 2019 NHL Draft) must become impact players. You can't blow those picks when you're rebuilding in the NHL salary cap era. The Red Wings need some luck too. A win at the 2020 NHL Draft Lottery on June 26 would be a major bump for their rebuild because it comes with the opportunity to select forward Alexis Lafreniere, the top prospect in the draft. Look at the teams that have rebuilt into Stanley Cup winners or contenders in the salary cap era. The Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals, Tampa Bay Lightning, Colorado Avalanche, Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers. What do they have in common? They all had the No. 1 pick at some point and chose a generational player. The Red Wings, who have the best odds at 18.5 percent, could certainly use that draft lottery win. But if they don't get it, they can't pick lower than No. 4 and must select an impact player anyway. They can't miss in the draft.

Yzerman will make some moves. He said they'll name a captain. I expect it to be center Dylan Larkin. Yzerman will also address the goaltending situation. I don't expect Jimmy Howard will be back. Jonathan Bernier has one year left on a three-year contract he signed July 1, 2018. Yzerman likely won't break the bank to sign goalie to play in tandem with Bernier, which to me, rules out potential unrestricted free agents Jacob Markstrom and Braden Holtby. There's no reason for the Red Wings to spend big on goaltending when so much of their team remains in flux.

Yzerman plays the long game. He'll rely on the growth and development of forwards Anthony Mantha, Tyler Bertuzzi, Robby Fabbri, Larkin and Zadina, and defensemen Filip Hronek, Dennis Cholowski and Seider. He'll rely on quality drafting and developing. He'll rely on his patience and belief that building a winner in the NHL requires a lot. And when the time is right, he'll rely on the Red Wings' growth and development to be the selling point to free agents.

Do you agree that the Devils and the Sharks were the main disappointment teams of the year? Both have never really been in playoff contention. Why? While, in my opinion, the Flyers, Oilers and Blue Jackets for different reasons actually overachieved. -- @statslotta

I agree that the Sharks and Devils each had a down season by what was expected of them. Labeling their season as a disappointment as a result is fair. But I expected more from the Sabres too. They did not live up to what I thought was a reasonable level of expectations, to at least remain in contention into March. They were 13 points out of the second wild card into the playoffs from the East when the season was paused. That's not meeting expectations. I also expected more from the Panthers and Nashville Predators, but each can make their season better than they have to date because they're part of the Return to Play Plan.

The downfall of the Sharks and Devils is directly related to their goaltending problems. New Jersey had a save percentage of .894 through Dec. 31 (14-19-6, 39 games) and San Jose had a save percentage of .895 (17-21-3, 41 games). It's hard to win in the NHL when you're not getting a .900 save percentage or better from your goaltending. At least the Devils' goaltending improved with rookie MacKenzie Blackwood finding his game in the second half. He had a 2.58 goals-against average and .927 save percentage in 18 appearances (17 starts) from Dec. 31 until the season paused. The Devils had a .581 points percentage in those 31 games, tied for 11th in the NHL.

There were other issues for these teams. Shoddy defensive play. The Taylor Hall contract situation and his eventual trade from New Jersey to the Arizona Coyotes on Dec. 16. The Devils' big-ticket offseason acquisitions -- defenseman P.K. Subban, and forwards Wayne Simmonds and Nikita Gusev -- who didn't produce enough offensively. Not enough offense from Sharks defensemen Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns. Karlsson scored 40 points (six goals, 34 assists) in 56 games, his fewest points in a season when he played at least 50 games since he scored 26 as a rookie in 2009-10. Burns scored 45 points (12 goals, 33 assists) in 70 games, down from 83 points (16 goals, 67 assists) in 82 games last season. The Sharks also dealt with injuries to center Logan Couture, who missed 18 games; and Karlsson, who missed the final 13 games before the pause. But for the Sharks and Devils, it mainly it came down to a poor first half that was largely goaltending related that put each behind the pack entering 2020; New Jersey was 15 points out of a playoff spot and San Jose was nine points out.