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Fantasy defenseman point projections for 2018-19

Karlsson leads position despite uncertainty; Provorov, McAvoy should take next step; Dahlin can exceed 40 for improved Sabres

by Fantasy Hockey Staff @NHLFantasy / NHL.com

NHL.com has projected the point total of each fantasy-relevant defenseman in 2018-19. These projections should be used as a basis for decision-making in all fantasy leagues, especially points-only formats. For more fantasy hockey coverage, visit NHL.com/Fantasy.

Fantasy hockey leagues come in all shapes and sizes, but one of the few constants is that points (goals and assists) always are factored into the scoring.

NHL.com fantasy writers Pete Jensen, Rob Reese and David Satriano have previewed each of the 31 teams this offseason. In the process, they have collaborated on point projections for each fantasy-relevant defenseman.

 

MORE COVERAGE: Forward point projections | Goalie wins | Team previewsCheat sheet

 

The below totals should be viewed as safe point estimates and do not indicate each player's ceiling or floor. Defensemen who have been safely estimated to reach at least 35 points have been included

 

DEFENSEMAN POINT PROJECTIONS FOR 2018-19 SEASON

NOTES: Defenseman point projections have been quantified based on factors including but not limited to past production, projected defense pairs, power-play usage, injury history, sleeper upside, anticipated regression or bounce-back candidacy, age and contract status (pending unrestricted or restricted free agent). Any potential 2019 UFAs (*) and RFAs (**) also are noted below. The order of projected point totals (highest to lowest) does not reflect order of rank in NHL.com's fantasy top 250 because those rankings take standard peripheral categories into account (plus/minus, power-play points, shots on goal, hits).

Players who missed time because of injury either last season or in recent seasons but produce at a high rate when healthy (e.g. Tyson Barrie, Ryan Ellis) have been projected based on the assumption that they will play close to a full season. Injuries could affect whether players meet or come close to their point projections. INJ. indicates players with injury concerns.

 

Erik Karlsson, SJS* -- 78
Brent Burns, SJS -- 70
Victor Hedman, TBL -- 68
John Klingberg, DAL -- 66
John Carlson, WSH -- 60
Tyson Barrie, COL -- 60
P.K. Subban, NSH -- 58
Kris Letang, PIT -- 58
Keith Yandle, FLA -- 58
Drew Doughty, LAK -- 57
Shayne Gostisbehere, PHI -- 57
Seth Jones , CBJ (INJ.) -- 56
Dustin Byfuglien, WPG -- 55
Torey Krug, BOS (INJ.) -- 55
Alex Pietrangelo, STL -- 54
Roman Josi, NSH -- 53
Jake Gardiner, TOR* -- 52
Morgan Rielly, TOR -- 52
Matt Dumba, MIN -- 51
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, ARI -- 50
Ryan Ellis, NSH -- 49
Ryan Suter, MIN -- 49
Dougie Hamilton, CAR -- 49
Rasmus Ristolainen, BUF -- 47
Mark Giordano, CGY -- 46
Ivan Provorov, PHI** -- 46
Zach Werenski, CBJ** -- 45
Charlie McAvoy, BOS** -- 45
Mikhail Sergachev, TBL -- 45
Rasmus Dahlin, BUF -- 43
Aaron Ekblad, FLA -- 43
Nick Leddy, NYI -- 43
Shea Theodore, VGK -- 43
Will Butcher, NJD** -- 42
Ryan Pulock, NYI -- 41
Justin Schultz, PIT (INJ.) -- 41
Mike Green, DET (INJ.) -- 41
Brandon Montour, ANA -- 40
Sami Vatanen, NJD -- 40
Kevin Shattenkirk, NYR -- 40
Jeff Petry, MTL -- 40
Marc-Edouard Vlasic, SJS -- 39
Alexander Edler, VAN -- 39
Jared Spurgeon, MIN -- 39
Josh Manson, ANA -- 39
Colin Miller, VGK -- 38
Jake Muzzin, LAK -- 38
Duncan Keith, CHI -- 38
Oscar Klefbom, EDM -- 37
Cam Fowler, ANA -- 37
Colton Parayko, STL -- 37
Jacob Trouba, WPG** -- 37
Noah Hanifin, D, CGY -- 36
Thomas Chabot, OTT -- 36
Justin Faulk, CAR -- 35
Ryan McDonagh, TBL -- 35
Tyler Myers, WPG* -- 35
Miro Heiskanen, DAL -- 35
Samuel Girard, COL -- 35
Alex Goligoski, ARI -- 35

Other key injury: Shea Weber, MTL

Suspended: Nate Schmidt, VGK

 

[RELATED: Fantasy: Defenseman point projections for 2017-18]

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