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Fantasy: Goalie win projections for 2017-18

NHL.com estimates totals for starters, backups, time-share tandems

by Fantasy Hockey Staff @NHLFantasy / NHL.com

NHL.com fantasy writers Pete Jensen, David Satriano and Ben Zweiman have previewed each of the 31 teams this offseason. In the process, they have collaborated on win projections for each goaltender, from projected starters to backups to time-share tandems.

 

FANTASY RANKS: Top 250 | Top 100 'F' | C | LW | RW | Top 50 'D' | Top 25 'G'

MORE 2017-18 PROJECTIONS: Forward points | D-man points | Team previews | Mock Draft

 

Goaltender win estimates have been quantified based on factors including past production, team goaltender situations, anticipated start volume, projected goal support (or lack thereof), injury history, age, sleeper, bounce-back or breakout candidacy and anticipated regression. These totals should be viewed as safe estimates for this season and do not indicate each player's win ceiling or floor.

Based on individual goaltender projections, NHL.com has also included estimated win totals for each team, sorted by division. Please note these are solely team win projections and do not take into account whether losses will come in regulation (no points) or overtime/shootout (one point), which could affect the final standings.

The order of projected win totals (highest to lowest) does not reflect the order of rank in NHL.com's fantasy top 250 because those rankings take standard peripheral categories into account (goals-against average, save percentage, shutouts). That said, this list should be used as a basis for decision-making in most fantasy leagues, especially a wins-only format.

 

NOTES: Projections have been made based on the assumption that each goaltender will play close to a full season, but injuries could affect whether starting goaltenders meet or come close to their win estimate. ... Because each team's overall scope (offseason moves, time-share/backup situation, etc.) has been taken into account, goaltenders do not necessarily appear in order of talent but rather by their projected win totals for fantasy purposes. ... Win projections for all 31 teams (two goaltenders per team) add up to 1,271, the number of games that will be played in the 2017-18 NHL season.

Video: Fantasy expert Pete Jensen on offseason moves

 

GOALTENDERS PROJECTED FOR AT LEAST 30 WINS

Matt Murray, PIT -- 39

Cam Talbot, EDM -- 38

Devan Dubnyk, MIN -- 37

Sergei Bobrovsky, CBJ -- 36

Frederik Andersen, TOR -- 36

Braden Holtby, WSH -- 35

Jake Allen, STL -- 35

Tuukka Rask, BOS -- 35

Ben Bishop, DAL -- 34

Corey Crawford, CHI -- 34

Carey Price, MTL -- 33

John Gibson, ANA -- 33

Jonathan Quick, LAK -- 33

Andrei Vasilevskiy, TBL -- 33

Henrik Lundqvist, NYR -- 33

Pekka Rinne, NSH -- 32

Martin Jones, SJS -- 32

Craig Anderson, OTT -- 31

Mike Smith, CGY -- 31

 

OTHER STARTERS + TIME-SHARE SITUATIONS

* Scott Darling, CAR -- 29

* Brian Elliott, PHI -- 28

* Cory Schneider, NJD -- 27

* Robin Lehner, BUF -- 26

* Antti Raanta, ARI -- 26

Jaroslav Halak, NYI -- 24

Steve Mason, WPG -- 24

* Marc-Andre Fleury, VGK -- 23

* Semyon Varlamov, COL -- 22

Roberto Luongo, FLA -- 21

Connor Hellebuyck, WPG -- 20

Jimmy Howard, DET -- 18

Thomas Greiss, NYI -- 18

James Reimer, FLA -- 17

Petr Mrazek, DET -- 17

Jacob Markstrom, VAN -- 17

Anders Nilsson, VAN -- 15

* Projected to be full-time starter

 

TRUE BACKUPS

Ryan Miller, ANA -- 13

Peter Budaj, TBL -- 13

Juuse Saros, NSH -- 12

Michal Neuvirth, PHI -- 12

Cam Ward, CAR -- 11

Carter Hutton, STL -- 11

Chad Johnson, BUF -- 11

Philipp Grubauer, WSH -- 10

Kari Lehtonen, DAL -- 10

Ondrej Pavelec, NYR -- 10

Mike Condon, OTT -- 10

Joonas Korpisalo, CBJ -- 10

Anton Forsberg, CHI -- 10

Antti Niemi, PIT -- 9

Jonathan Bernier, COL -- 9

Curtis McElhinney, TOR -- 9

Eddie Lack, CGY -- 9

Calvin Pickard, VGK -- 8

Anton Khudobin, BOS -- 8

Aaron Dell, SJS -- 8

Al Montoya, MTL -- 8

Laurent Brossoit, EDM -- 8

Alex Stalock, MIN -- 8

Louis Domingue, ARI -- 8

Keith Kinkaid, NJD -- 7

Darcy Kuemper, LAK -- 7

---

 

EASTERN CONFERENCE WIN TOTALS BASED ON PROJECTIONS

 

Metropolitan Division (8)

PIT: Matt Murray (39) + Antti Niemi (9) = 48 wins (50 last season; -2)
CBJ: Sergei Bobrovsky (36) + Joonas Korpisalo (10) = 46 wins (50 last season; -4)
WSH: Braden Holtby (35) + Phillipp Grubauer (10) = 45 wins (55 last season; -10)
NYR: Henrik Lundqvist (33) + Ondrej Pavelec (10) = 43 wins (48 last season; -5)
NYI: Jaroslav Halak (24) + Thomas Greiss (18) = 42 wins (41 last season; +1)
CAR: Scott Darling (29) + Cam Ward (11) = 40 wins (36 last season; +4)
PHI: Brian Elliott (28) + Michal Neuvirth (12) = 40 wins (39 last season; +1)
NJD: Cory Schneider (27) + Keith Kinkaid (7) = 34 wins (28 last season; +6)

TOTAL: 338 wins

 

Atlantic Division (8)

TBL: Andrei Vasilevskiy (33) + Peter Budaj (13) = 46 wins (42 last season; +4)
TOR: Frederik Andersen (36) + Curtis McElhinney (9) = 45 wins (40 last season; +5)
BOS: Tuukka Rask (35) + Anton Khudobin (8) = 43 wins (44 last season; -1)
OTT: Craig Anderson (31) + Mike Condon (10) = 41 wins (44 last season; -3)
MTL: Carey Price (33) + Al Montoya (8) = 41 wins (47 last season; -6)
FLA: Roberto Luongo (21) + James Reimer (17) = 38 wins (35 last season; +3)
BUF: Robin Lehner (26) + Chad Johnson (11) = 37 wins (33 last season; +4)
DET: Jimmy Howard (18) + Petr Mrazek (17) = 35 wins (33 last season; +2)

TOTAL: 326 wins

 

WESTERN CONFERENCE WIN TOTALS BASED ON PROJECTIONS

 

Central Division (7)

STL: Jake Allen (35) + Carter Hutton (11) = 46 wins (46 last season; same)
MIN: Devan Dubnyk (37) + Alex Stalock (8) = 45 wins (49 last season; -4)
DAL: Ben Bishop (34) + Kari Lehtonen (10) = 44 wins (34 last season; +10)
NSH: Pekka Rinne (32) + Juuse Saros (12) = 44 wins (41 last season; +3)
CHI: Corey Crawford (34) + Anton Forsberg (10) = 44 wins (50 last season; -6)
WPG: Steve Mason (24) + Connor Hellebuyck (20) = 44 wins (40 last season; +4)
COL: Semyon Varlamov (22) + Jonathan Bernier (9) = 31 wins (22 last season; +9)

TOTAL: 298 wins

 

Pacific Division (8)

ANA: John Gibson (33) + Ryan Miller (13) = 46 wins (46 last season; same)
EDM: Cam Talbot (38) + Laurent Brossoit (8) = 46 wins (47 last season; -1)
CGY: Mike Smith (31) + Eddie Lack (9) = 40 wins (45 last season; -5)
SJS: Martin Jones (32) + Aaron Dell (8) = 40 wins (46 last season; -6)
LAK: Jonathan Quick (33) + Darcy Kuemper (7) = 40 wins (39 last season; +1)
ARI: Antti Raanta (26) + Louis Domingue (8) = 34 wins (30 last season; +4)
VAN: Jacob Markstrom (17) + Anders Nilsson (15) = 32 wins (30 last season; +2)
VGK: Marc-Andre Fleury (23) + Calvin Pickard (8) = 31 wins (N/A; Expansion team)

TOTAL: 309 wins

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