Fantasy: Avalanche, Devils, Golden Knights can sustain success

We're past the midway point of the 2017-18 season, so NHL.com will be taking an analytical dive into the sustainability of the League's three most surprising teams and whether each can maintain its pace in the second half.

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche are on pace for 94 points, 46 more than they had all last season. A large part of their resurgence can be attributed to center Nathan MacKinnon (52 points, T-2nd in NHL) and right wing Mikko Rantanen (41 points, T-24th). More overlooked is the improvement by their goaltenders, who have been much more consistent. Starter Semyon Varlamov (46 percent owned in Yahoo) has 13 wins in 25 starts with a .912 save percentage. Backup Jonathan Bernier (18 percent) has a four-game winning streak during Varlamov's recent injury absence, giving him nine wins in 17 games (16 starts). There is still room for improvement, but Colorado's goaltending has certainly stabilized compared to last season, when it was tied for last in save percentage (.894).

Colorado ranks fifth in goals per game (3.27) and is tied for 11th (2.54) in even-strength goals per game. These numbers are encouraging despite Colorado being on the negative end of even-strength possession with a shot attempts percentage (SAT) of 47.96. The Avalanche's improvement can be largely attributed to MacKinnon, who's on pace to shatter his NHL career high in points (63 in 2013-14). MacKinnon leads the NHL in home scoring with 40 points (14 goals, 26 assists) in 23 games and in primary points per 60 minutes (3.32), according to Corsica Hockey. That's significantly more than elite fantasy players Brad Marchand (3.18), Nikita Kucherov (3.07), Johnny Gaudreau (2.78) and Alex Ovechkin (2.64). If there was any doubt whether MacKinnon had superstar potential, he ranks eighth overall in standard leagues past the midway point after a Yahoo average draft position of 139.5.
The key to the Avalanche sustaining their success will ultimately fall on their goaltending and defense. Varlamov (groin) was injured Jan. 2 against the Winnipeg Jets and could miss two more weeks. The Avalanche will rely heavily on Bernier, who is 5-1-0 with a .938 SV% and one shutout in his past six games. Other factors to watch will be Colorado's special teams; its power play entered Saturday ranked eighth (21.2 percent) and the penalty kill ranked third (83.9 percent). Defenseman Samuel Girard (2 percent), acquired from the Nashville Predators on Nov. 5, has been producing on the first power-play unit with Tyson Barrie (hand) sidelined. Girard has five power-play assists in his past five games. If the Avalanche's strong special-teams play continues, coupled with average goaltending, they can maintain their current trajectory.

New Jersey Devils

One season after winning the 2017 NHL Draft Lottery, the Devils have improved considerably and are among the top teams in the Metropolitan Division. Swiss center Nico Hischier (29 percent owned in Yahoo), the No. 1 pick in the 2017 NHL Draft, was their biggest offseason addition, but they also brought in several other players who have made key contributions. Forward Marcus Johansson (LW, 26 percent) was acquired from the Washington Capitals on July 2 after an NHL career-high 58 points (24 goals, 34 assists) in 82 games last season. Another key addition was University of Denver defenseman Will Butcher (55 percent). He signed with the Devils on Aug. 27 after turning down an opportunity to sign with the Avalanche, who drafted him in 2013.

The Devils have dealt with injuries to Johansson, Kyle Palmieri (RW, 44 percent) and Travis Zajac (C, 2 percent) at points in the season, so their possession numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. The Devils rank 26th in even-strength possession (47.47 percent) and are even worse in all situations (29th). But this doesn't necessarily mean New Jersey will fizzle out in the second half. With young, talented players infused throughout their lineup, the Devils play an up-tempo style, different than what we are used to seeing in years past.
One of these talented young players is 19-year-old Swedish forward Jesper Bratt (LW/RW, 18 percent), who's playing right wing on a line with elite left wing Taylor Hall (24th in Yahoo) and Hischier. Bratt has 26 points (10 goals, 16 assists) in 40 games and is averaging 2.39 points per 60 minutes in all situations. Similarly, Hischier, who has 26 points (eight goals, 18 assists) in 41 games, has a points per 60 of 2.33. Hischier has yet to fully hit his stride and could be poised for a strong second half if his shooting percentage (8.4; 41st among rookies) improves.
The Devils, even with their surprising start, have not yet reached their full potential. In order to, they must stay healthy, rely on their young core and get more consistent performance from fantasy-relevant players beyond Hall and goaltender Cory Schneider. They have gotten huge lifts from unheralded forwards Brian Boyle (C/RW, 7 percent owned), who has 11 goals and plays on the first power-play unit, and Brian Gibbons, who is second on the Devils with 12 goals. But New Jersey likely needs improved production from experienced forwards Johansson and Palmieri to hang around in the competitive Metropolitan Division.
Key contributions from fantasy-relevant players on defense will also play an integral role in solidifying a Stanley Cup Playoff spot for the Devils. Defenseman Sami Vatanen (20 percent) has five points (one goal, four assists) in his past six games. Although his possession metrics leave something to be desired (48.41 percent), he seems to be finding his role after being traded to the Devils by the Anaheim Ducks on Nov. 30. Vatanen also plays on the second power-play unit with Johansson, Hischier, Bratt and forward Miles Wood (LW, 1 percent), who has 11 goals.

Vegas Golden Knights

The success of the Golden Knights has been one of the most surprising stories in League history. The expansion team leads the Pacific Division and entered Saturday with the best home record in the NHL (18-2-1). Their road record is more pedestrian (11-8-1), but Vegas has started four goalies this season and survived a rash of injuries. Starter Marc-Andre Fleury (12th in Yahoo) has nine wins and a .945 save percentage in 12 games; he missed two months with a concussion. More surprising is the success of Malcolm Subban (30 percent), whom Vegas claimed off waivers from the Boston Bruins on Oct. 3. Since being selected with the No. 24 pick in the 2012 NHL Draft, Subban had played two NHL games before joining the Golden Knights. He is 11-2-0 with a 2.38 goals-against average and .918 SV%.

Through 41 games, Vegas' even-strength possession metrics (50.72 SAT) rank 14th in the NHL. The Golden Knights rank second in goals per game (3.44) and have four players with at least 15 goals, tied for second behind the Tampa Bay Lightning (five). Jonathan Marchessault (25th in Yahoo) leads Vegas with 40 points (16 goals, 24 assists) in 38 games. At even strength, his possession numbers are well above positive (55.16 percent). Considering Marchessault's ADP was 165.5, he has returned tremendous value on investment. Vegas' leading goal-scorer, William Karlsson quietly is tied for fifth in goals (22). Only three of Karlsson's 22 goals have come on the power play, reiterating that Vegas is a strong even-strength team. It's worth noting Karlsson is shooting 25.9 percent, which is likely to regress closer to his average over two seasons with the Columbus Blue Jackets (7.7). This presents an opportunity to sell high on Karlsson for the right price in fantasy.
The Golden Knights will rely on special teams improvement to keep their success going. Their power play ranks 19th at 18.3 percent and forward Erik Haula (C/LW, 36 percent) leads them with eight power-play points. Their penalty kill is tied for 15th with the Detroit Red Wings and Arizona Coyotes at 81.3 percent. Vegas' second-half sustainability also will hinge on the production of forwards James Neal and David Perron, each in the final year of his contract. Neal has scored at least 20 goals in each of his previous nine NHL seasons, and Perron (LW/RW, 52 percent) has returned to fantasy relevance with 34 points (nine goals, 25 assists) in 35 games.
Another player to watch in deeper leagues is rookie right wing Alex Tuch (RW, 9 percent), who has been one of the most productive third-liners in the NHL with 21 points (nine goals, 12 assists), six PPP and 93 SOG in 37 games