Mishkin's Musings: A statement in Boston, the East race & Playoff format

A Statement In Boston: During our pregame show on Saturday prior to the start of the Lightning's game in Boston, Greg Linnelli and I were discussing whether this was going to be a "statement" game for Tampa Bay. Particularly since it was to be the final regular season meeting between the teams and that it's possible they could meet again in what would likely be a second-round postseason series. I'm not normally a believer that a regular season contest has much bearing on a potential later matchup in the playoffs. But in this case, after a game that featured plenty of physical play, fights, post-whistle scrums, and misconducts, I do think the Lightning delivered a statement and that how the game unfolded was important for a number of reasons.

They were coming off a loss earlier in the week to the Bruins. So first of all, the Lightning wanted to deliver a better performance. Such a performance needed to include a high compete-level and it was the emotion with which they played that led to a number of those altercations. Second, the Lightning served notice - to the Bruins or any other opponent that may see down the road - that facing them will mean that, from a physical standpoint, it's going to be a difficult matchup. And third, the Boston game had a positive effect on the Lightning within their locker room. The three players that arrived around the trade deadline - Blake Colemen, Barclay Goodrow, and Zach Bogosian - all play a gritty style. It was a game in which Lightning teammates were sticking up for one another, including those three. Such situations bring teammates closer and Saturday's contest helped the Lightning become a more tight-knit group.

The Eastern Race: Over my past two columns, I've referenced the 12-in-10 points pace that, historically, has virtually guaranteed a playoff berth. But in those earlier columns, I noted that there were 10 teams in the East at or above the 96-point, 80-game threshold. (As a reminder, a team with 97 points has never failed to qualify for the playoffs.) But recently, the landscape has shifted.
Before looking at the whole picture, here's an update on the Lightning's status. As of Monday, they're 13 points ahead of third-place Toronto and 16 points up on fourth-place Florida. Since the top three teams in the division automatically qualify for the playoffs, we can calculate a "magic number" based on Florida's potential point total. The Panthers have 76 points and 14 games remaining. Meaning that if they win all of their remaining games, they'll reach 104 points. So the Lightning, at 92 points, need just 13 points to clinch a playoff spot. So any combination of points gained by the Lightning or not gained by Florida totaling 13 secures a postseason spot for the Bolts.
What about the rest of the race? Philadelphia's nine-game winning streak has propelled the Flyers into a first-place tie with Washington in the Metropolitan Division. So the Lightning, Bruins, Caps, and Flyers are in excellent position to grab four of the eight available spots. They are also on pace to easily exceed the 96-point threshold. Things are much murkier for the other teams in the mix, however.
In those earlier columns, I referenced the 10 Eastern teams with a 12-in-10 pace. Since then, the Maple Leafs and Panthers have slipped. They'll each need a very strong push to reach 96 points after 80 games. Similarly, the Penguins, Islanders, Hurricanes, and Blue Jackets also have dipped in recent weeks. Based on their point totals and number of remaining games, they're all in better shape to still hit at least 96 points than either the Leafs or Panthers. The problem for those four Metro clubs is that one of the remaining four playoff spots is going to the third place Atlantic team, so they'll be competing for the other three berths. Then there's the New York Rangers, who have vaulted up the standings in recent weeks and moved within range of these other clubs.
So while it's still possible that these teams on the bubble will all reach 96 points after 80 games, it seems more likely that the 96-point threshold will be high enough to secure a spot in the postseason. And that some of the qualifying teams in the East will be below 96.

Playoff Format: In a tweet last week, veteran NHL reporter Pierre LeBrun, who currently writes for the Athletic and provides studio analysis on TSN broadcasts in Canada, floated a suggestion about expanding the playoff format. Given the closeness of the race - especially in the West, where only a few points separate five teams battling for two Wildcard spots - LeBrun tweeted that he'd love to see the league implement a play-in round. Seeds 7-10 would play a two-of-three series to determine the two Wildcard survivors. He immediately poured cold water on it, writing that Commissioner Gary Bettman has expressed no desire to alter the format. But LeBrun's suggestion got me thinking about the effect of adding two playoff teams.
Anytime someone mentions an expanded playoff pool, naysayers are quick to express disapproval. More teams qualifying would devalue regular season play, they contend. There may be legitimate reasons against such an expansion (such as, from year to year, the 9th and 10th place teams might be farther back in the standings). But I don't agree that this proposal would devalue the regular season. Quite the opposite, in fact.
Currently, a team finishing in first place earns home ice advantage through (at least) the first two rounds. It also faces a Wildcard team in the opening round. But in today's NHL, home ice hasn't provided a significant edge. And Wildcard clubs, while finishing with a lower point total than the top three finishers in the division, are hardly bottom-feeders. Remember that last year, the Lightning weren't the only division winner to lose in the first round. All four division winners fell to Wildcard teams in the opening round.
What would give a division winner an advantage, though? Getting to face a team that's had to deal with a grueling play-in series days before. A two-out-of-three series could be played in one location over a four-day span. Give the surviving team one day to travel and then the next series starts. That club would be potentially looking at beginning a new round by playing four playoff games in six days and five in eight.
So in the regular season, teams would have extra incentive to win their division. Or try to finish among the top three and avoid the Wildcard. Even for Wildcard qualifiers, there's an advantage to finishing seventh or eighth - and getting all the mini-series games at home.
Thanks for the tweet, Pierre!