1. The Lightning are at playoff pace.
Regular readers of this column know this equation well, because I've often referenced it in years past. Teams that accumulate 12 points in every 10-game segment will reach 96 points after 80 games. Under the league's current playoff format, that point total, almost without exception, has been high enough to secure a playoff spot. The 12-in-10 pace still allows clubs two final games to add more points. A team finishing with 98 regular season points has never missed the playoffs.
In their first 10-game segment, the Lightning went 6-4-0, hitting the 12-point mark. Thanks to the victory over the Blues, the Lightning recorded a 6-3-1 mark in Games 11-20, good for 13 points. So they enter their third 10-game segment with one "bonus" point.
The Eastern Conference playoff race was a lopsided one last year. The top eight teams finished well ahead of the bottom eight. Things were expected to tighten up this year, as several of the non-playoff clubs made improvements during the offseason. To this point in the season, the race is closer, although Boston and New Jersey (at the top) and Columbus and Ottawa (at the bottom) are already notably bookending the conference standings. But if we look at the 12-in-10 metric, only seven of 16 Eastern teams have maintained playoff pace.
So even though the Lightning find themselves in the midst of a crowded middle, they have hit the necessary standings-point benchmarks so far this year. Now, as they begin their third 10-game segment, they'll aim to do it again.
2. The Lightning are trending in the right direction.
As I just mentioned, there was only a one-point difference between the Lightning's first two 10-game segments. But the quality of their play was higher in the past 10 than in the opening 10.
During those first 10 contests, the Lightning struggled more frequently with inconsistency. In a number of their victories, they scored a late goal to break a tie and earn the victory. That was the case in their victories over Anaheim, San Jose, and Ottawa - Games 8, 9, and 10. These close victories helped them reach 12 points in the segment.
Early in the second segment, the Lightning still hadn't hit their stride - they needed a third-period rally to beat Buffalo in Game 12 and endured an uneven performance at Washington in Game 14. Since then, however, they've regularly outplayed their opponents. The one exception was their second period against Boston (Game 19), but even in that contest, the Lightning delivered one of their best periods of the year in the opening frame. Since the loss at Washington, the Lightning have won five of six. Not only did they come out of the five contests with two points, they were deserving of those victories. They'll look to keep building on their game in the second quarter of the season.
