Deep Dive: Nic Dowd

Late Thursday night, the Canucks made a trade, sending defenceman Jordan Subban to the Los Angeles Kings for Nic Dowd.

The right-handed centre is known for his physicality and hockey IQ. He has some underrated playmaking skills, which was evidenced by his 16 assists last year, along with 6 goals, in 70 games with the Kings. Unfortunately, this year, Dowd has been limited to one assist in 16 games.
Dowd did have a very good NCAA career, finishing his four-year collegiate career at St Cloud State with 52 goals and 69 assists in 154 games. He was a Hobey Baker finalist in 2013-14 to go along with being named the National Collegiate Hockey Conference Best Defensive Forward, First Team All-Star, and Scholar-Athlete of the Year. All while being the captain of his team that year.
He has also shown that he can produce at the AHL level with 92 points in 140 career games.
At first glance at his NHL resume, it appears the organization is banking that his stronger numbers from last season with shine through with more of an opportunity here in Vancouver. Which is fair to believe will happen as the Huntsville, Alabama native had good underlying numbers with L.A. last season. Posting a corsi for percentage of 56.19%, which ranked 2nd amongst all Kings, Dowd was very good at suppressing shots against while on the ice. No other King allowed fewer shots against than Dowd at even strength.
His goals for percentage wasn't as flattering as he had 24 goals scored against while he was on the ice, and only 15 goals for. That 38.46% goals for (GF%) was well below what was expected based on his play, as the expected goals for (xGF%) was 57.98%. Simply put, some luck was involved as the Kings gave up 3 more goals than they should've and should've scored about 14 more goals while Dowd was on the ice. So given that, it's clear that Dowd had a very good season last year with the Kings and was poised to provide some depth for them.
Unfortunately, this season painted a different picture as Dowd's corsi for percentage dropped to 46.23%. That is mostly attributed to not generating as many shots while Dowd was on the ice, as his shots against numbers were still very flattering. His GF% and xGF% paint a similar picture as last year. The discrepancy between the two numbers for 2016-17 and 2017-18, are mostly due to his teammates on ice shooting percentage being well below league average.
It's important to remember that this is comparing 127 minutes of ice time (2017-18) to 741 minutes (2016-17), so his shot suppression rates are still encouraging and over time the shot generation and shooting rates may have flattened.
With Bo Horvat and Brandon Sutter currently out with injury, it's clear that the organization wanted to address some depth at the centre positon. Dowd isn't a great faceoff man, as his career faceoff percentage of 48.3%, but that is better compared to someone like Markus Granlund, who has a career percentage of 40.3%. The newest Canucks has been better this season, going 51.9% in the dot. Keeping Granlund on the wing and allowing Dowd to slide into a bottom six centre role should help the Canucks win a few more draws.
That leaves the question of what kind of impact can Dowd provide the Canucks, and I think it's fair to say that he will help in some ways that may not show up on the scoresheet.
His underlying numbers were very good last year but have taken a slight dip this season. That can be because of a variety reasons including matchups, linemates, luck, and different systems. With a larger role and different teammates with the Canucks, it's fair to expect his shot generation numbers to rise. If he can keep his shot suppression rates at the same levels, he could quickly see his underlying percentages to stabilize.
Dowd isn't afraid to be physical, regularly willing to hit and battle in the corners to get the puck. He won't go chasing for hits, but won't be shy to take the body. It's something that any lineup can use.
Add that he's shown throughout his career leading up to the NHL, that he can put up points. His 22 points last season were a great rookie season, he just hasn't been able to continue that success so far this year.
Given that he is 27 years old, there likely won't be much development left to be had. But his underlying and offensive numbers last year indicate that he can be an effective depth player for the Canucks who can chip in here and there.