EN_cms_dumont_20200804

With the series tied and the two first "road" games out of the way, the Canadiens find themselves in a very interesting situation.

They're two games away from officially qualifying for the playoffs, and there's some evidence to suggest they have the right pieces in place to take the next step, especially now that they'll have the last line change. But there's also some evidence to suggest that certain modifications will need to be made to give themselves every advantage possible while taking that next step.
First things first, let's take a look at the work from the third line, which has been the Canadiens' best line through two games.
And it's led by none other than the youngest player on the roster, Jesperi Kotkaniemi.
While Kotkaniemi struggled at times last season, needing a stint in the AHL to find his rhythm -- as well as his confidence -- it's also true the level of criticism surrounding him was founded in impatience.
He's not quite a full two years into his NHL career, and though he's had his share of growing pains, his 115 regular season games before the age of 20 should pay off in the long run.
Especially since that's roughly 115 more games than most prospects have played by that age.
Much like a painting by the legendary Bob Ross, when it comes to prospects, particularly highly-touted ones, judging them before they've had a chance to complete their work is a little shortsighted.;
What we do know, for certain, is that in two "playoff" games, Kotkaniemi has scored two goals, which should give him some breathing room when it comes to criticism. But more importantly, he, along with Artturi Lehkonen and Paul Byron, currently form the Canadiens' most effective line.
Through two games, the line has controlled 63 percent of the shots, as well as 100 percent of the high-danger chances. Now, we do have to be mindful of the small sample size. For example, saying they controlled 100 percent of the high-danger chances is much more meaningful after 10 or so games, but we can't ignore the results we've seen from the first two games in the series. After all, it's just a five-game series. We also have to be mindful of their usage. For example, the first line usually faces a higher quality of competition than the third line.
With that in mind, let's delve into the 5-on-5 numbers from the first two games. You'll notice the third line is unmatched at the moment.

EN_cms_5on5_dumont

So, how are they doing it?
The first thing that stands out is their aggressiveness on the forecheck. Whether it's a dump-in or a loose puck, all three of the forwards have alternated in the F1 and F2 roles (designated deep-zone forecheckers).
If you can attack a defenseman quickly, it gives him much less time to evaluate his passing options, especially if he's in the midst of corralling a puck.
Here we see how quickly Kotkaniemi pressures Marcus Pettersson, giving him very little time and space. The result was a blind clear, which gave control of the puck back to the Canadiens.

cms_kotkaniemi_dumont

The second thing that stands out is speed through the neutral zone while maintaining proper defensive positioning.
For example, Kotkaniemi creates a turnover early in the third period thanks to his position in the neutral zone, which allows Byron to switch from defensive to offensive mode, giving his center a perfect passing lane, and an easy controlled zone entry, in the process.
Creating time and space in the offensive zone is never a bad idea. In fact, some would argue it's a very good idea, like chocolate covered pretzels.

cms_byron_speed_dumont

The final key to their success is getting to the net for high-danger scoring chances, as we saw Lehkonen do in the first period with his wraparound attempt.
Combine all these positive elements into one play and the result is a very nice goal, such as we saw on Monday night. Full marks to Lehkonen, who not only acted as the F1 on the play, which forced the defenseman to blindly clear the puck, but also generated a lot of space for himself, and a juicy rebound for Kotkaniemi.
The Price is right
I'd be remiss if I didn't mention just how spectacular Carey Price was on Monday night.
As a former goaltender that didn't quite achieve the same level of success as Price, I'm in awe at his ability to readjust in hectic situations. He doesn't just adjust quickly, he does so without wasting an ounce of energy.
Price made 36 all-situations saves, but that statistic alone is a little misleading. The Penguins shot the puck 71 times, and while not all of them hit the net, Price had to anticipate and adjust to every single one.
Through two games, Price has saved 48 of the 51 shots he faced at 5-on-5, and 23 of the 24 shots he's faced during the penalty kill. The 5-on-5 number is very, very good, but the penalty kill stats are incredible. No other goaltender has come close to making such an impact on the penalty kill, as Price leads the entire league in goals-saved above average in that situation by a significant margin.
Moving forward
I'm quick to tout the value of 5-on-5 statistics. After all, the vast majority of the game is played at 5-on-5… unless it's in the 2020 play-in series. The referees haven't been afraid to blow the whistle.
It's very difficult for players to generate chances or chemistry when they're dealing with a significant increase of special teams usage.
As it stands, roughly 25 percent of the series has been played by special teams, which puts an onus on the penalty kill, which has been pretty good, and the power play, which hasn't...quite been as good.
A little more discipline and a lot more creativity and execution on the power play would significantly turn the tide for the Canadiens.
[All statistics are 5-on-5 unless otherwise specified, via NaturalStatTrick.com]