Fantasy Forecast for Tuesday, November 17

MONDAY'S ROUNDUP:

"Unless something negative happens this afternoon and I don't get the OK from Smitty (head athletic trainer Greg Smith) to play him, than I think he would be back." The words of Capitals coach Bruce Boudreau are sweet music to the ears of Alex Ovechkin fantasy owners, who can stop wondering when their first-round (and probably first-overall) pick will return to the lineup.

Tuesday at Madison Square Garden, look for No. 8 to be in action against the Rangers (7 p.m. ET, VERSUS, TSN2). In 17 career games against the Rangers, Ovechkin has 8 goals and 18 points.

It will be Ovechkin's first game since Nov. 1, when he left a contest early against Columbus with an upper-body strain that was believed to be an issue with his shoulder.

NHL.com's Dan Rosen filed this story after watching the Capitals practice Tuesday.

At Monday's practice, Ovechkin was on the top line with Nicklas Backstrom and Chris Clark and participated in every drill, including power play. Other lines were Brooks Laich-Brendan Morrison-Alexander Semin, Tomas Fleischmann-Mathieu Perreault-Matt Bradley, and Quintin Laing-David Steckel-Eric Fehr.

According to Washington's Web site, the top power-play unit will have Morrison and Mike Green on the points, with forwards Ovechkin, Backstrom and Fleischmann. "I am just trying something new," Boudreau said. "Brendan has done a very good job with that right there."

Before his injury Ovechkin played the point, but Morrison's effectiveness and the injury to Mike Knuble have Boudreau trying Ovechkin down low with the man-advantage. "I'm going to try to play like Mike Knuble plays," Ovechkin said. "He uses his body in front of the goalie. I'm just going to do the same."

Even with 15 days and six games missed, Ovechkin (14 games, 14-9-23, owned in 99 percent of all Yahoo! leagues) is eighth in scoring, tied for first in goals, and first in shots (86.)

Washington's media notes are replete with stats to please Ovechkin fantasy owners. Such as, in the Caps' three games broadcast by Versus, (once against Boston, twice against Philadelphia), Ovechkin has 6 goals, 2 assists and a plus-7 rating. In his last five games at Madison Square Garden (including playoffs), Ovechkin has 4 goals, 4 assists and a plus-4 rating.

Caps goalie Jose Theodore is away from the team to tend to a personal family matter, so Semyon Varlamov (9, 7-1-0, 2.67 GAA, 70 percent) will start in goal against the Rangers, with Michal Neuvirth providing backup.

Kings forward Ryan Smyth, a surprise as the No. 12 scorer in the League, suffered an upper-body injury in Monday's shootout win at Florida and played only 13:10. He will be evaluated Tuesday. Smyth (22, 9-14-23, 94 percent) is second on the Kings in goals, assists and points to Anze Kopitar.

Carolina coach Paul Maurice told the Raleigh News and Observer that center Eric Staal (13, 3-2-5, 95 percent) could return to action next week. He has missed the last six games with an upper-body injury.

In Monday's 4-1 win at Boston, the Islanders' top line of John Tavares (1-0-1), Matt Moulson (2-0-2) and Richard Park (0-3-3) totaled 6 points. "He has a knack for the net, he's always been like that," Tavares said of Moulson (21, 10-8-18, 52 percent) in Newsday.

In only his second game back after a nasty concussion, Oilers defenseman Sheldon Souray recorded 2 assists in a shootout win against Columbus on Monday. He led the team in power-play time (5:30) and total ice time (26:56). "Took a while to get into the rhythm, but I had a pretty steady partner (Steve Staios)," Souray (5, 0-2-2, 82 percent) told the Edmonton Journal. "Feels good to jump in and get my feet wet again. It wasn't a really fast game, which helps."

Rangers coach John Tortorella told Newsday he's making a switch at the point on the power play, with veteran Wade Redden taking over from younger Marc Staal. "We're looking to maybe expand (Redden's) role a little bit, and we're also a little concerned with Marc, that he gets the most important part of his game down, and that's the five-on-five," Tortorella said.

For Tuesday's game at Ottawa, Alexei Ponikarovsky (18, 7-2-9, 48 percent) will be on the Maple Leafs' top line, with Matt Stajan and Phil Kessel, for the second consecutive contest. Jason Blake (18, 2-9-11, 71 percent) drops to a line with Niklas Hagman and Mikhail Grabovski, reports the Toronto Star. Vesa Toskala (7, 0-3-2, 4.44 GAA, 25 percent) gets the start in goal.

On Tuesday, the Blue Jackets announced they are loaning 19-year-old left wing Nikita Filatov (13, 2-0-2, 8 percent) to CSKA of the Russian KHL for the remainder of 2009-10. The rookie was receiving scant playing time -- only twice did he top 10 minutes in a game -- and was a healthy scratch for five contests. "Nikita is a top prospect in our organization and we believe it is in the best interest of his development to play more and in all situations in the KHL," said GM Scott Howson. "We have agreed to his request to be assigned to CSKA and this should afford him the opportunity to continue to work and develop his game in his hometown of Moscow."

TUESDAY'S PROJECTED GOALIES:

Washington (Semyon Varlamov) at N.Y. Rangers (Henrik Lundqvist), 7 p.m. ET (VS, TSN2)
Carolina (Michael Leighton) at Montreal (Carey Price), 7:30 p.m. ET (RDS)
Toronto (Vesa Toskala) at Ottawa (Pascal Leclaire), 7:30 p.m. ET
San Jose (Evgeni Nabokov) at Nashville (Pekka Rinne), 8 p.m. ET
Colorado (Craig Anderson) at Calgary (Miikka Kiprusoff), 9:30 p.m. ET

RECENT INJURIES:

Arron Asham, RW, Philadelphia: Is out 10-14 days with a strained left oblique muscle.
Sam Gagner, C, Edmonton: Is day-to-day with a lower-body injury.
Brian Gionta, RW, Montreal: Is day-to-day with a lower-body injury.
Alex Goligoski, D, Pittsburgh: Will be out 2-3 weeks with a lower-body injury.
Denis Grebeshkov, D, Edmonton: Is sidelined a month with a torn MCL.
Mike Knuble, RW, Washington: Sidelined 3-4 weeks with a broken finger.
Pavel Kubina, D, Atlanta: Is day-to-day with lower-body soreness.
Chris Kunitz, LW, Pittsburgh: Sidelined for two weeks with a lower-body injury
Bryan Little, C, Atlanta: Is day-to-day with a groin injury.
Matthew Lombardi, C, Phoenix: Is day-to-day with a lower-body injury.
Mattias Ohlund, D, Tampa Bay: Is day-to-day with a lower-body injury.
Joni Pitkanen, D, Carolina: Is day-to-day with a lower-body injury
Drew Stafford, RW, Buffalo: Is day-to-day with a hip flexor.
Kris Versteeg, LW, Chicago: Is day-to-day with an upper-body injury.
Scott Walker, RW, Carolina: Is day-to-day with an upper-body injury.

TRANSACTIONS:

Calgary Flames: Reassigned D Staffan Kronwall to Abbotsford (AHL) on a conditioning assignment.
Chicago Blackhawks: Reassigned LW Bryan Bickell to Rockford (AHL).
Colorado Avalanche: Recalled F Chris Durno from Lake Erie (AHL).
Columbus Blue Jackets: Loaned LW Nikita Filatov to CSKA of the Kontinental Hockey League for the remainder of the 2009-10 season.
New York Islanders: Recalled D Andrew MacDonald from Bridgeport (AHL).
Philadelphia Flyers: Recalled LW David Laliberte to Adirondack (AHL).
Phoenix Coyotes: Recalled F Kevin Porter from San Antonio (AHL).
Pittsburgh Penguins: Recalled D Nate Guenin from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (AHL).
San Jose Sharks: Reassigned C Logan Couture to Worcester (AHL).
Tampa Bay Lightning: Reassigned F Ryan Craig to Norfolk (AHL). Assigned D Matt Smaby to Norfolk (AHL) for conditioning.
Washington Capitals: Recalled C Jay Beagle and G Michal Neuvirth from Hershey (AHL).

NHL.COM EXPERTS LEAGUE:

Week 7 results through Nov. 16
Philly Cheesestakes 5, Rocky Trottier 4 (2 ties)
No Shanahan-igans 6, Skoula Hard Knocks 1 (4 ties)
Clown Shoes 7 vs. Ovi's Heroes 4
Hempstead Slowpokes 4, Hammerhead United 4 (3 ties)
Out on a Dan Hinote 7, The Birdcage 3 (1 tie)
Big Skillets O'BKLYN 3, Code Monkeys 3 (5 ties)


E-MAIL OF THE DAY:

Hello,
I'm kind of in a pickle as far as defensemen and I was wondering if you could help me out. With Sheldon Souray's return from IR I'm going to have to drop a defenseman. I currently have Marek Zidlicky, Erik Johnson, Matt Carle and Kyle Quincey. Who would you recommend I drop for Souray, if anyone? I'm thinking either Johnson or Zidlicky. I'm in a rotisserie league that counts PIM, and I'm sure Souray will get points, but with his concussion do you still think he will rack up the PIMs?
--- Zach
Las Vegas

Ouch, any of these guys is a tough, tough player to drop. Can you work out a last-minute trade before getting Souray back into your lineup? Any one of these four guys should and will be picked up immediately in your league; they all carry good fantasy value.

My reluctant recommendation is that you cut Carle -- his stats are not all they appear to be, and he's benefiting greatly from being partnered with Chris Pronger this season. Remember that great 4-assist game (actually, one period) Carle had Oct. 6? Take those stats away and he's 2-6-8 in 16 games, which is still pretty good. However, Carle scored 8 points in his first five games this season, but had only 4 points in the following 12 games since Oct. 16, and three of those came in one game. Putting the capper on the argument against Carle are his 10 penalty minutes. Zidlicky and Quincey already have double that, and Johnson's offense (it's coming, just you wait) will make you forget he has only 10 PIM.

I'm totally against cutting Johnson (18, 1-11-12), and Zidlicky (20, 2-9-11) and Quincey (20, 2-10-12) are not far behind. Hopefully Souray can return to his pre-concussion form and record a few goals quickly to put you at ease over dropping Carle, but please try to work on a trade first, even if you don't get equal value. I'd hate to see you get nothing for a decent player.

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