Fantasy top 30 goalies: No place like home for Mason

Every Thursday during the season, NHL.com's Evan Sporer will provide you with in-depth analysis of goaltenders. From updated weekly top-30 rankings to trending players and more, Sporer will be your go-to guy for advice on fantasy goalies all season long.

There's no place like home, especially if you're Philadelphia Flyers goalie Steve Mason.

Mason is quietly putting together one of the better seasons out of any goalie in the NHL. Perhaps he doesn't get more recognition because the Flyers are all but mathematically eliminated from the Stanley Cup Playoffs chase, but there's something else working against Mason.

He's in sixth in the NHL in save percentage at an above-average .926. He sits just outside the top 10 among League leaders in goals-against average, with a very strong 2.25.

Mason has played 24 home games, winning 14 of them. In his 22 road starts, however, Mason has won once, a puzzling number that requires further examination to truly make sense of, and, if you're a Mason owner in fantasy hockey, an answer may not satisfy you.

His save percentage in home starts (.938) is much better than his save percentage in road starts (.912), but even the latter number doesn't portend his current road record of 1-12-6. As a team, the Flyers have won nine times on the road this season, with only the Toronto Maple Leafs, Buffalo Sabres, and Edmonton Oilers having fewer road victories with eight. On the flipside, the Flyers' 21 home wins are as many as the Pittsburgh Penguins, Vancouver Canucks, and Calgary Flames, and more than Detroit Red Wings, Washington Capitals, Ottawa Senators, Minnesota Wild and Winnipeg Jets have each accumulated.

Without Mason, the Flyers would be in significantly worse shape this season. He's been their best player for large stretches, but it hasn't helped him or his team when they're not playing at Wells Fargo Center.

There are some basic numbers that make this gap even more puzzling. In his 23 home starts, Mason has faced an average of 30.88 shots against per 60 minutes, according to war-on-ice.com. On the road that number actually decreases to 30.06.

Other numbers paint a somewhat similar home/road picture, or at least nothing stark enough to crater his record the way it does. Mason has allowed six low-danger and nine medium-danger goals at home as opposed to nine and 13 respectively on the road.

The possession numbers don't help shed much light into what's plaguing Philadelphia on the road, either. The Flyers' shot attempts percentage at home (50.1) is only fractionally better than it is on the road (49.2). And as far as where that stands overall in the League, the Flyers are 16th in shot attempts percentage on the road compared to 21st at home.

The list goes on. The Flyers average fewer scoring chances against on the road versus at home, and shoot nearly the identical percentage (7.5 at home; 7.1 on the road), meaning their offense isn't drying up.

Steve Mason

STATS PRIOR TO MAR. 26 GAMES

RECORD: 15-17-10
GAA: 2.25 | SVP: .926

By calculating a team's shooting plus save percentage (SPSv%), we're able to somewhat quantify puck luck. The two numbers should add up to about 1,000 to express an average number, but for the Flyers their road number falls a bit short of that threshold (987). What's affecting it is their save percentage in road games, but if there are no underlying factors adversely affecting it, saying the Flyers and Mason are going through a bit of an unlucky spell isn't outside the realm of possibility.

Teams historically have sustained higher SPSv% with above-average goaltending. The Boston Bruins are one example: a team that shot right around where one would expect them to, but because of Tim Thomas or Tuukka Rask had a SPSv% above 1,000 for multiple seasons.

Yet because Mason has played so well overall, and because the Flyers haven't played that much worse on the road versus at home, it's safe to predict that, if the season was 164 games long instead of 82, Mason's road numbers would begin to get better.

Not much of a consolation if you're a Mason owner, but know Mason isn't exorcising any demons or entering any house of horrors when he leaves Wells Fargo Center. He's had a very good season with some bizarre luck when he's protecting the visitor's crease.

TRENDING UP

Jonathan Quick, Los Angeles Kings

Like all hockey players, Quick is streaky. With the Kings again trying to sneak their way into the playoffs, Quick is in a peak rather than a valley. He's made 91 saves on the past 96 shots he's faced, and going back a bit further has two shutouts in his past six starts. Quick is one of those goalies who occasionally goes through world-beating stretches, one of which he might be entering currently.

Cam Talbot

STATS PRIOR TO MAR. 26 GAMES

RECORD: 19-8-4
GAA: 2.19 | SVP: .927

Cam Talbot, New York Rangers

This is no slight on Talbot, who exceeded expectations by stratospheres while Henrik Lundqvist was recovering from injury. But the reality is, no matter how many arcane trade proposals anyone can come up with, Lundqvist is the Rangers' franchise goalie, and his impending return signals the end of Talbot's days as the starter. Talbot won't be completely shunned, especially with the Rangers facing a back-to-back this weekend, but the clip of 22 out of 24 starts he's made is nearing an end.

KEEP AN EYE ON

The Winnipeg Jets

One of the reasons it's difficult to devote serious fantasy attention to either Ondrej Pavelec or Michael Hutchinson is because of how coach Paul Maurice deploys them. There were times this season when it seemed Hutchinson was running away with the job, but Pavelec hung around and in his past seven starts hasn't had his save percentage dip below .938. It seems like for the time being Pavelec has earned more starts, but with eight games remaining on Winnipeg's schedule, it's not like Maurice is going to have that many more opportunities to start either goalie.

TOP 30 FANTASY GOALIES

These modified re-rankings are a projection of a goalie's fantasy output for the entire season. Our ranks are based on volume categories like games played, wins, saves, goals-against average (GAA) and save percentage (SV%). The plus or minus for each player is movement based on our most recent rankings from last week (NR means not ranked in previous rankings). It is important to note that our rankings reflect sheer fantasy value, not talent. A less-talented goalie could be ranked higher due to their team's strong defense and offense.

1	Carey Price, MTL (SAME)	16	John Gibson, ANA (-1)
2	Cory Schneider, NJD (+2)	17	Jimmy Howard, DET (SAME)
3	Marc-Andre Fleury, PIT (SAME)	18	Steve Mason, PHI (SAME)
4	Pekka Rinne, NSH (-2)	19	Eddie Lack, VAN (+1)
5	Braden Holtby, WSH (SAME)	20	Semyon Varlamov, COL (-1)
6	Corey Crawford, CHI (+1)	21	Andrei Vasilevskiy, TBL (SAME)
7	Tuukka Rask, BOS (-1)	22	Ondrej Pavelec, WPG (+4)
8	Devan Dubnyk, MIN (+1)	23	Sergei Bobrovsky, CBJ (SAME)
9	Roberto Luongo, FLA (-1)	24	Cam Talbot, NYR (-10)
10	Henrik Lundqvist, NYR (DTD; NR - IR)	25	Frederik Andersen, ANA (-1)
11	Jonathan Quick, LAK (SAME)	26	Michael Hutchinson, WPG (-4)
12	Brian Elliott, STL (-2)	27	Antti Niemi, SJS (-2)
13	Jaroslav Halak, NYI (-1)	28	Kari Lehtonen, DAL (-1)
14	Andrew Hammond, OTT (+2)	29	Jake Allen, STL (-1)
15	Ben Bishop, TBL (-2)	30	Anton Khudobin, CAR (NEW)

Dropped out: Dan Ellis, Petr Mrazek

Key injuries: Ryan Miller, Cam Ward, Craig Anderson, Robin Lehner

DTD: Day-to-day; NR - IR: Not ranked last week because of injury

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